This is part one of a new series examining difficult players to rank, starting with Jordan Love.
Strong Points
Despite a shaky first half of the season, Love ranked second in EPA/dropbacks and CPOE and first in PFF passing grade from Week 9 through the playoffs. Love averaged more fantasy points per game than CJ Stroud last season and was third in yards per scramble among quarterbacks last season.
Love averaged 264.1 passing yards (7.8 per attempt) with a 25:5 TD:INT ratio over his final 11 games (including postseason) to go along with two rushing scores. From Week 11 through Week 18, only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco averaged more fantasy points per game than Love.
Love is projected to develop the fastest among the quarterbacks in 2024 and has the strongest schedule overall. The Packers also have a deep coaching staff under Matt LaFleur's strong leadership, while Green Bay has a ludicrously deep wide receiver corps with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Dubs and Dontaeveon Wicks. Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are capable tight ends, and rookie Marshawn Lloyd should be a pass-catching weapon out of the backfield.
If the second half of 2023 is any indication, Love could rocket to stardom in 2024 while playing with one of the league's youngest offensive lines.
Cons
Love's 7.2 yards per possession average was 13th last year, but that's typically a lot fewer than his 32 touchdown passes. Volume is an advantage, but Love's touchdown rate of 5.8% ranked top three in the league, and it will be especially tough to sustain with a lower efficiency. Love benefited from the second-most red zone attempts (100) last season, but Green Bay acquired big back Josh Jacobs during the offseason. The Packers scored 76.2% of their touchdowns through the air last season, and Jacobs is averaging 11 rushing TDs from 2020-2022. Furthermore, it's highly unlikely the Packers will score touchdowns on a historic 95% of goal-to-go possessions like they did last season, which was their highest rate since at least the '90s.
Perhaps Love's second half should be given more credit given it was his first year as a starter, but it's also worth noting the small sample size. Love also didn't perform well across the board in terms of consistent predictive metrics, and while his big second half jump was due to his improvement under pressure, this isn't a very reliable predictor of future performance.
verdict
Love will pass the late eye test and will have some wide receiver help, but he's currently my QB12, two spots below the expert consensus ranking. The two quarterbacks I rank higher than the ECR are Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels, both of whom I would comfortably draft higher than Love (Caleb Williams is close as well).
Purdy recorded the best YPA season in NFL history, with 135 more yards than Love and just one fewer TD pass. Pass attempts are down. The 49ers are projected to score the most points in the league in 2024 (including fantasy playoffs) and Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both top 10 fantasy WRs. The Packers don't have a WR ranked in the top 30, but George Kittle is TE5 by ECR. Kyle Shanahan's recent personnel decisions also suggest Christian McCaffrey could increase his passing in 2024 (as he did in Atlanta) with him coming off a 400+ touch season.
The difference in YPA between Love and Purdy last season is roughly 300 points in baseball terms, or OPS. Purdy is still recovering from elbow surgery, but he doesn't command the same respect at fantasy draft tables as Rodney Dangerfield.
Daniels is at a higher injury risk than Love and has never been injured, but the rookie certainly has a better chance of being a fantasy favorite given his incredible rushing ability. Daniels could be an issue for Washington this season, but his running game could lead to him being a top-10 fantasy QB among the league's most fast-paced offensive lines.
Love should have a productive season, but he Slightly Love's string of touchdowns has led to an inflated ranking that will be tough to repeat, and he'll need to improve his YPA to be a top-10 fantasy QB in 2024.
