It's mid-to-late June as I write this, and for some reason, college baseball is still being played.
The world of college football isn't quite there yet — the general public doesn't tune in until around Aug. 11 each year — but if you care about wins and want to get invested, now is the time to consider it before things start to change in a couple of months.
Remember, there's nothing magical about Las Vegas or how the odds are created: the lines go up and anyone willing to dabble jumps in and sets the market.
In college football, there will be transfers, injuries, some teams on the schedule will start to get better and others will look a bit shaky, and win numbers will fluctuate a bit, but Notre Dame should remain relatively consistent.
At the moment, some are putting Ireland's win tally at 10. Please stay away from there – But most of the big sites like FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars have the odds at 10.5.
That's what you want, because As for the number of wins Notre Dame will get in 2024, the under 10.5 is the betting pick right now.
That doesn't mean it'll be a bad year for Ireland though – quite the opposite.
I've been saying all offseason that they'll have a great run, go 10-2 and make it into the expanded College Football Playoff.
But this isn't to satisfy the demands of die-hard fans or to give the team any satisfaction. This is for cold hard math. So here's why I'm betting on Notre Dame under at 10.5. Not 10.
Maybe I should have pointed this out for those who don't normally do this sort of thing: Preseason wins are always based on the regular season only, so for schools other than Notre Dame, conference championships don't count, and they don't take into account playoff games.
That's why it's never wrong to bet the under on a team to win 10 or more games, and if one quarterback gets injured, you're probably right.
So what happens if Leonard takes a setback during the season following ankle surgery?
All seems well. He's had a stress test on his ankle and should be good to go this fall. But what if there's an issue or glitch? The Irish have good backup options and the rest of the team is strong, but it's important to remember that to win at the over 10.5, the Irish would obviously need to win 11 or 12 games. If Leonard is out for an extended period of time, and it doesn't have to be because of his ankle, they're in big trouble if they're counting on 11 or 12 wins.
When looking at win totals, start here: Where are your surefire wins?
Oh, oh, oh, there are the blunders against Marshall and Stanford in 2022 or even Louisville last season, but something crazy would have to happen for the Irish to lose to Northern Illinois, Miami, Navy, Virginia or Army.
Five games should be winnable. If any of those games go the other way, maybe Army's offense will work on the right day, but Notre Dame's win total won't be higher than 10.5. And if the opposite happens,
Really, there isn't.
The Irish won't be playing Georgia in Athens or Ohio State in Columbus, but those two games should be enough to give the Irish a fair run for their money. But calculating wins with this year's Irish team and this year's schedule is different than, say, Purdue. The Boilermakers can sleep easy knowing they lost at Ohio State and will play Oregon, Penn State and Notre Dame at home.
So, this is a bit of a problem, because normally I want to see one game that is a sure loser, so I only need one more to get the under at 10.5.
For example, Texas is also at 10.5 and has to go to Michigan, host Georgia, go to Texas A&M and play Oklahoma. But…
All you need are two:
Generally, if you get to 11 or 11.5 win totals, you're bound to lose. There are no such teams on the board yet, but Georgia, Ohio State and maybe Liberty will reach 11 in August. And if Notre Dame does get to 11, that would be some real Christmas fun.
Betting on the under assumes that going undefeated is nearly impossible.
Again, Notre Dame should be great. Can they go 12-0 with this schedule? Yeah, absolutely. They probably can't, but they did it in 2018, so it's not insane. Can they go 11-1? Yeah, they did it in 2019 and 2021. But even if they do, if you're a Notre Dame fan, you celebrate and salute the team for a great year and move on.
Here's why you fall.
Opening the season against Texas A&M is risky, playing Georgia Tech isn't as risky but is at least in sight, Florida State is Florida State and playing USC at the end of the regular season is an even bigger concern.
Of course, Notre Dame will do everything in their power to beat USC, but the Irish don't get a bye in the College Football Playoff, so if they're 10-1 and all but guaranteed to make it no matter what happens in L.A., that might be enough to worry. It's also possible that USC desperately needs this win, Lincoln Riley desperately needs this win, and the Irish don't.
At least it's still USC, it's still Los Angeles, and it comes a week after dealing with Army and their offense.
Texas A&M, Florida State, USC. They only have to lose to one of those three teams and everything else has to be perfect. If the Irish beat all three they'll be over 10.5. Even if they lose, I'll be happy to be here.
One loss to those three and one misstep anywhere else and 10-2 is a much safer play.
Notre Dame football schedule 2024: 5 things to know about Louisville, Sept. 28
