NBA free agency could begin as early as Saturday if the Boston Celtics sweep the Dallas Mavericks. Under a provision in the new collective bargaining agreement, teams can begin negotiating with their own free agents the day after the final game of the NBA Finals.
Some agreements will be reached immediately, while others will take until the new year, which begins July 1. (Verbal agreements are finalized on June 30.)
Few teams have significant spending power, and the list of top free agents, while strong at the top, is declining in quality relatively quickly.
Every team is hoping to improve in the offseason. The draft (June 26-27) and trades could make all the difference, but there are only a few teams with deep pockets. It's easy to guess where the best players will go this summer.
Listed below are some guesses as to who will fill which positions, assuming a salary cap of $141 million.
Many in the NBA had long expected a middle ground would be found between the Los Angeles Clippers and Paul George on a contract extension, but the failure to reach an agreement suggests an impasse.
With the Philadelphia 76ers' immense financial resources, the 34-year-old has the power to pressure the Clippers to avoid relocating to the Eastern Conference.
Unless George agrees to an extension with the Clippers, he would opt out of the final year of his $48.8 million salary and sign a new four-year deal ($221.1 million in Los Angeles and $212.2 million in Philadelphia).
If LA was willing to pay that kind of salary, a contract extension would have already been agreed upon.
If George stays in Philadelphia for the maximum four seasons, the 76ers would have roughly $13.9 million to spend, assuming they release everyone else except for 16th pick Embiid and Maxey. Teams under the cap would also get an $8 million headroom mid-level exception (RMLE).
Without George, the Clippers' finances would be different, and depending on James Harden and others, the team could end up below the apron or even under the luxury tax.
The Golden State Warriors will prioritize financial consolidation this offseason and may end the Splash Brothers era by signing Klay Thompson as a free agent.
The Warriors can pay whatever they want to keep him, but that might mean committing to the tax, the apron and limited flexibility.
Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic are coming off a strong season with a solid (but brief) playoff run, and they're a team flush with cap space and hungry for shooting.
Thompson, 34, is a legendary shooter, a big name and a perfect fit for an Orlando team that is good defensively but desperately needs floor spacing.
Let's say he signs a three-year, $81.9 million deal with the Magic, which is more than the Warriors are willing to pay (at least as viewed through B/R's crystal ball).
Assuming they waive all rights except for Goga Bitadze (a small stake), Orlando is projected to still have more than $27 million in spending capacity.
Given Franz's family ties to Moe Wagner (coming off a productive year), the Magic would likely opt out, waive and re-sign the brother after using up cap room on the $8 million RMLE.
Malik Monk found a home in Los Angeles, earning a mid-level contract with the Kings while playing well above the minimum.
Two years later, he has excelled again and Sacramento finds itself in a similar situation with only his early signing rights, limiting the team's offer to the 26-year-old to $17.4 million.
With Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox, the Kings can't raise the $20 million salary-cap cap needed to pay what other teams might offer Monk in July, and even trading Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter wouldn't be enough to keep him from leaving unless he's willing to take less to stay.
If the Kings could pay closer to $78 million over four years, the Magic would pay $86 million, a 10% increase over $20 million (a slight increase, plus Florida's favorable tax structure).
Monk will still be the sixth man, but Thompson will play as the team's small forward, giving the Magic two shooters and leaving Cole Anthony and Monk on the bench to create two creative scorers, with roughly $8.3 million left to spend.
The Magic team needs veteran depth at power forward.
They may retain Joe Ingles, but Tobias Harris could emerge as a starting-level player behind Paolo Banchero.
Given the frequency of injuries in the NBA, Harris' two-year, $16.9 million contract would be a bargain.
Orlando still has defensive-minded players in Wendell Carter Jr., Jonathan Isaac and Jalen Suggs, but the bulk of its investment this summer has been in Thompson, Monk and Harris to improve their shooting and scoring.
The Utah Jazz remain in limbo after the Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gay trades, and while they are relatively competitive, they are nowhere near a play-in team, with only one All-Star talent in Lauri Markkanen at the helm.
While the franchise has roughly $36 million in cap space to comfortably spare, now is probably not the time to start shopping around for front-line talent. Instead, the Jazz are expected to move slowly through the draft and trades, with any available spending power going to Markkanen as part of a renegotiation/contract extension.
Utah could get creative with how it pays the 27-year-old, offering an immediate raise to between $33.2 million and $42.3 million and a contract extension starting at a projected maximum of $46.5 million in 2025-26.
Let's say he receives a new $200 million salary (roughly what other teams would pay him over the four years as an unrestricted free agent in 2025), in which case the Jazz might want to pay him most of that this season and next, then lower his final year's salary to $41 million.
That would leave the team with roughly $9 million in remaining cap space and another $8 million in RMLE.
The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) surprised many last season by finishing with the best record in the Western Conference (tied with the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves).
The team will have about $33 million in cap space in free agency, likely to add a player with size to play alongside or behind center Chet Holmgren.
Pen Isaiah Hartenstein of the New York Knicks.
Hartenstein, 26, was a key contributor to the Knicks' postseason run amid injuries that ravaged the team (Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, etc.). New York is limited to a starting offer of $16.2 million because of his early signing rights, an amount the Thunder could easily exceed.
Maybe a three-year, $60 million deal would work, which would cost OKC $14 million in cap space to restock the roster (through free agency or trade) and $8 million in RMLE.
The Thunder need to fill the wing spot left vacant by ill-fated trade acquisition of Gordon Hayward, while Caleb Martin has a $7.1 million player option with the Miami Heat.
Martin played a key role in Miami the past two years, and his production and efficiency improved throughout the playoffs. The Heat may want to keep him, but the team's salary is too high.
The 28-year-old could leave South Beach for landlocked Oklahoma City if the Thunder offer him just under $14.1 million in remaining salary-cap space. The Thunder would likely control his final season, worth around $44.3 million over three years, including team options.
The franchise still has an $8 million RMLE available if needed, but adding Hartenstein and Martin to one of the best teams in the West looks like a win for Oklahoma City.
The San Antonio Spurs are in need of a point guard and could go all out in a trade for Atlanta Hawks All-Star Trae Young, but they could also take a more conservative route as Victor Wembanyama continues to show incredible potential.
Tyus Jones, whose brother Tre Jones plays for the Spurs, is one of the better true point guards in the NBA. He's not a scorer like De'Aaron Fox or Ja Morant, but more of a traditional floor general/shooter. Though not a great defender, having Wenbanyama protect the rim is a luxury San Antonio has.
The Spurs could probably outspend the Washington Wizards with a starting salary of around $17 million ($53.5 million over three years), leaving the team with an RMLE of $8 million.
The Dallas Mavericks may be struggling in the NBA Finals, but the 2023-24 season marks a dramatic turnaround from their playoff non-appearance a year ago.
One of the best acquisitions of the offseason was the minimum contract of Derrick Jones Jr., but the 27-year-old forward may not return to Dallas next year unless he is traded.
The most the Mavericks could pay Jones (outside of the Bird Rights) would be about $3.6 million, which probably wouldn't be enough for a defenseman who is shooting 37.3 percent from the field this postseason. The alternative is the Taxpayer Midlevel Exception (TMLE) of $5.3 million, but in a free-agent market with few impact players, that's probably too little.
With Tim Hardaway Jr.'s role diminishing, Dallas could try to sell him and his expiring $16.2 million salary to a team like the Detroit Pistons, who have cap space and may need a veteran shooter for a season as they restructure.
Dallas might have to send a second-round pick or other considerations or incentives to Detroit, but waiving his salary would give the Mavs a larger non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE) of $12.9 million.
That should be enough to keep Jones, and while Dallas will likely look to make further moves on the perimeter to improve, at least they won't be losing a key starter.
Spoiler: LeBron James will be the main driver of the final slide in these re-signing deals (with the Lakers).
With that in mind, the Warriors will avoid the luxury tax as much as possible, and Chris Paul won't be getting his non-guaranteed $30 million from Golden State.
Once Paul clears waivers, he will eventually be traded to the Lakers on a minimum contract of $3.3 million.
The 39-year-old is capable of coming off the bench or starting, but the Lakers will likely need to limit his minutes as he's just a few months younger than the oldest player in the league (James turns 40 in December).
L.A. needs to add some youth to its roster, but it also needs some smart veteran pieces on the team. Paul nearly joined the Lakers in 2011, but the deal was torn up by the late NBA commissioner David Stern, who owned the New Orleans Hornets (now the Pelicans) before they were sold to the Benson family.
Paul never got to play with Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, but now he'll get a chance to wear the purple and gold alongside James.
Few teams have the spending power, and many will re-sign their top free agents.
Without going into the numbers, I'll just note the following:
- The 76ers would use their remaining cap space to bring back Kelly Oubre Jr. (who wouldn't be compensated enough outside of his Bird rights) and Kyle Lowry would return on a minimum contract.
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has declined to re-sign with the Denver Nuggets.
- James could opt out to add a no-trade clause, but he could get more by opting in for an extension.
- DeMar DeRozan signed a contract extension with the Chicago Bulls before becoming a free agent in July.
- Other unrestricted free agents returning include Pascal Siakam (Indiana Pacers), James Harden (Los Angeles Clippers), OG Anunoby (Knicks) and Nicolas Claxton (Brooklyn Nets).
- The top restricted free agents are staying: Maxey (Sixers), Immanuel Quickley (Toronto Raptors), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Obi Toppin (Pacers).
This isn't the numbers for every team or free agent, but it's not a bad list of reasonable guesses about what's coming up in the near future.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter. Eric Pincus.
