Most of the 2024 NBA free agents are expected to remain with their current teams.
Tyrese Maxey is a restricted free agent and is almost certain to get a max contract from the Philadelphia 76ers. The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks will likely pay big to keep Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby after giving up so many players in trades a few months ago. Veterans like James Harden and Klay Thompson should also be happy to stay home in California.
Instead, we focus on the biggest departure risks in free agency: the players most likely to leave their team and sign with a new one.
Whether they're looking to snap up a championship contender, seek a bigger payday elsewhere, or simply get out of a bad situation, we've identified the five biggest free agents (and some potential Any players who sign with other teams this offseason could be on the move.
Paul George, G/F, Los Angeles Clippers
George and the Clippers have been unable to agree on a contract extension for several months, and the veteran winger has a $48.8 million player option that he can decline and become a free agent.
The Philadelphia 76ers would roll out the red carpet for Paul, but they couldn't outbid the Clippers. Los Angeles could still offer a slightly higher total amount ($221 million vs. $212 million over four years) and wouldn't want to lose their All-Star forward before moving to a new arena.
Los Angeles would likely pay more to keep Paul on the team than they would for Kawhi Leonard.
Isaiah Hertenstein, C, New York Knicks
Hartenstein has no on-court reason to leave the Knicks after establishing himself as a quality starting center this season, but New York has early signing rights for the 26-year-old center and can only offer him a four-year deal worth up to $72.5 million.
With no obvious front-runners, a serious pursuit of Hartenstein would require a team with a center and the cap space. The Oklahoma City Thunder could try to pair him with Chet Holmgren, while the Orlando Magic could make a move if they feel Hartenstein is a better option than Wendell Carter Jr.
But both the Knicks and Hartenstein would likely want to stay, so don't be surprised if a new contract is reached at the maximum amount New York can offer.
LeBron James, F, Los Angeles Lakers
James currently holds a player option worth $51.4 million, the highest amount in NBA history, and can choose to stay in Los Angeles and extend his current contract or become a free agent.
The Philadelphia 76ers seem like the only realistic threat to sign James, assuming he's not interested in playing for a mid-major team for now. Still, moving across the country to play for a fourth NBA team with two kids still to look after may not be what's best for James, personally or professionally.
James will end up with $160 million somehow, stay in Los Angeles and put pressure on the team to acquire a third star.
Tobias Harris deserves credit for playing out his five-year, $180 million contract with the Philadelphia 76ers and not surprising anyone with his salary (they probably had other things to discuss with the 76ers). That deal, signed at 30% of the cap in 2019, is equivalent to Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton's five-year, $245.3 million contracts today.
The 76ers have maximum cap space, but giving Harris a significant portion of it seems pretty low on Philadelphia's wish list, with Daryl Morey looking to use the money to try and land an All-Star.
Keith Pompey Philadelphia Inquirer The Sixers wrote that they would like to acquire the highest-paid player in free agency or in a trade from a pool that includes Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George, Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler and New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram.
Harris shouldn't wait to see if the Sixers acquire his replacement before visiting teams as a free agent himself.
A return to the Detroit Pistons would likely come with a big contract, and teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets also have the cap space to offer Harris a starting role.
While a return to the Sixers can't be completely ruled out (especially if he fails with all four of his primary targets), this relationship appears to be over.
If Harris signs another big contract, either in Detroit or elsewhere, maybe he'll be able to send a few boxes of crumble cookies back to his die-hard fans in Philadelphia.
Potential new housing: Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Oklahoma City Thunder
Malik Monk is in a similar situation to Isaiah Hertenstein of the New York Knicks, as both just signed two-year deals with teams that limit how much they can pay them without using cap space.
The Sacramento Kings can use their early signing rights to offer Monk only a maximum of $77.9 million over four years on a contract that starts at $17.4 million next season.
The 26-year-old seemed to find his home in Sacramento, averaging career-highs of 15.4 points and 5.1 assists in just 26 minutes off the bench and finishing second in Sixth Man of the Year voting.
But unlike Hartenstein, Monk could easily find a role as both a starting shooting guard or sixth man, making the Kings' risk of losing him that much greater.
The Orlando Magic have $66.6 million in cap space to offer Monk a starting spot at two guard next to Jalen Suggs if they want to, while the Detroit Pistons also have the most cap space, and even Monk's former team, the Charlotte Hornets, could be a good fit with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.
Monk had a great two years in Sacramento, but no one would blame him for accepting the biggest contract he could get now. Remember, Monk is playing the 2021-22 season with the Los Angeles Lakers on a minimum contract because the Hornets didn't even extend him a qualifying offer.
Potential new housing: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets
The New Orleans Pelicans will be one of the most popular teams to watch this summer.
“I think in the past we've always valued continuity,” Pelicans vice president of basketball operations David Griffin said, “and our bottom line has always been, 'Let's see if this group is healthy.' (Now) I think we've seen enough of this group.”
Griffin is essentially promising changes around Zion Williamson with Valanciunas’ future so uncertain.
The 32-year-old center is an unrestricted free agent who has seen his total usage, minutes and shot production decline over the past three seasons with New Orleans. Williamson has essentially given up the outside shot (six total 3-pointers in 70 games), which makes him a bit of a poor matchup with Valanciunas (0.5 attempts per game on 30.8% shooting).
The Pelicans, a franchise that has never paid the luxury tax, are only $13.6 million short without a new contract for Valanciunas, who made $15.4 million last season. It seems far more likely that New Orleans would trade Brandon Ingram to add some center or point guard and promote Trey Murphy III to a full-time starter role than it would be to re-sign Valanciunas.
The veteran center is still a capable starter on the right team, but he may end up being a mid-level exception on a championship-contending team.
Potential new housing: Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, Brooklyn Nets (if Nic Claxton doesn't re-sign)
Even before the Los Angeles Lakers were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, ESPN's Brian Windhorst reported that Russell was “likely” to decline his $18.7 million player option and become a free agent.
Russell performed well in the regular season with Los Angeles (18.0 points, 6.3 assists and 41.5% 3-point shooting), but struggled again in the playoff series, shooting just 38.8% overall through 32 playoff games with three different franchises.
But it's tough to find a team willing to offer Russell more than $18.7 million per season.
The Orlando Magic need an offensive boost and have a ton of cap space, and the Detroit Pistons should be in desperate need of veteran talent, but outside of those franchises, Russell might have to settle for a $12.9 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception contract as a sixth man with a team like the Sacramento Kings if Malik Monk leaves.
It would be better for Russell and the Lakers if he opted in and Los Angeles could use his salary in a trade. Assuming LeBron James returns to the Lakers, the team likely won't have the cap space to sign a player of Russell's caliber in free agency.
Given how Russell and the Lakers have finished in the playoffs the past two years, the impression is that both are ready to take the next step, with Russell declining his player option being the quickest way out.
Potential new housing: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Sacramento Kings
There is absolutely no reason for DeMar DeRozan to return to the Chicago Bulls next season.
The Bulls aren't going anywhere, they're stuck in the middle of the pack in the NBA, they don't have any great young talent and they don't have enough veteran power to make a playoff run. It would be tough to get any quality return in a Zach LaVine trade.
DeRozan individually had three great years with the Bulls, but he turns 35 in August and should be playing for a team that has a chance to win a title, not one that's struggling in the playoffs every year.
Chicago must choose a direction and should be interested in helping DeRozan find a new team via a sign-and-trade. Such a move would cap his new team's salary at the first tax apron ($178.7 million total salary) and eliminate some high-cost candidates.
DeRozan could receive offers from championship-contenders with cap space like the Philadelphia 76ers or Orlando Magic, but he needs to be patient and accept the fact that he won't be Plan A or Plan B for either team. A sign-and-trade return to Los Angeles with the Lakers could work if D'Angelo Russell declines his $18.7 million player option (to put LA below the first apron) and LA sends back some combination of Rui Hachimura ($17 million), Austin Reeves ($12.9 million), Gabe Vincent ($11 million) and Jarrett Vanderbilt ($10.7 million) instead.
For DeRozan, playing for the Bulls again shouldn't be an option; he deserves to play for a team that has a real chance to win next season.
Potential new housing: Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers
