After a nine-day break, the Boston Celtics (1-0) beat the brakes off the Dallas Mavericks (0-1) Thursday in Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals. Boston jumped out to a 17-point first-quarter lead, Dallas never recovered, and the Celtics won 107-89. Boston put on a defensive and 3-point shooting clinic in Game 1: The Celtics hit nine more threes (16-7) and held the Mavs to just nine team assists.
Dallas All-Star Luka Dončić scored a game-high 30 points, but Kyrie Irving added just 12 points on 6-for-19 shooting. The story of Game 1 was the return of Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis, who got hurt in the first round of the playoffs. KP erupted for 18 first-half points and ended with 20. Boston All-Star Jayson Tatum had only 16 points but grabbed 11 boards, and threw 5 assists. Celtics SF Jaylen Brown was the best player in Game 1, scoring a team-high 24 points, and hounding Luka on defense.
Mavericks at Celtics NBA Finals Game 2 Bet Slip
- 1.14 units (u) on Boston -6.5 (-114) at FanDuel.
- 0.33u on Celtics PF Kristaps Porzingis UNDER 15.5 points (-111) at FanDuel.
- 0.33u on Boston SF Jaylen Brown OVER 32.5 “Player Combo” (-105) at BetMGM.
- 0.33u on Dallas PF P.J. Washington OVER 12.5 points (-105) at BetMGM.
Celtics -7 (-110) From the Mavericks
Initially, I was thinking of betting on Dallas on the “zig-zag” theory, which would reverse the results of the previous series. However, John Ewing of BetMGM tweeted on Sunday morning that 70% of the money being wagered is on the Mavericks. Additionally, Pregame.com reports that over 60% of the money being wagered in the consensus market is on the Mavericks, with the majority of the cash being on the Celtics. This is enough to dissuade me from betting on Dallas in Game 2.
Also, Porzingis is in good form, and almost every player on Boston can shoot three-pointers, especially at home. In Game 1, the Celtics took five more wide-open three-pointers than the Mavericks. “Wide-open” means the three-pointer is at least six feet away from the nearest defender. Boston is going to leave some Dallas shooters open, but the Mavericks can't give the Celtics any open opportunities.
Celtics fullback Jaylen Brown shoots a 3-pointer over Dallas Mavericks fullback P.J. Washington during Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, four of Boston's starting five are elite two-way players, so Luka and Kyrie don't have to “push the Celtics on the defensive end.” Boston PG Jrue Holiday One of the best on-ball defenders of his generation. Celtics SG Derrick White He is the best shot-blocking guard in the NBA. Tatum and Brown are great defensive wings and both are longer and more athletic than Doncic.
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Boston Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis 15.5 points or less
KP had a big game last time out and nearly regressed on Sunday. Porzingis came off the bench on Thursday and shot 8 of 13 in 20:34. Boston staggered Porzingis' minutes so he was on the floor at the same time as the Mavs' rookie big man. Derek Lively In Game 1, the Celtics switched KP out for a smaller defender who could get an easy shot.
That said, Porzingis shot just 2-of-5 from the field (0-of-2 from 3-point range) with Lively on the defense. Mavericks coach Jason Kidd will likely make some adjustments for Game 2, and I expect Lively won't hold KP back as much on Sunday. Their defense has also been much better with Lively on the floor.
Boston Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis posts up Dallas Mavericks C Derek Lively II during Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals. (David Butler II – USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, as of noon ET on Saturday, Pinnacle Sportsbook had raised the under on Porzingis to -126 and the over to -105, but most legal U.S. sportsbooks have both odds set at equal prices. Since Pinnacle is a “market making” odds maker that legal U.S. sportsbooks mimic, FanDuel is booking the “soft numbers.”
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Boston SF Jaylen Brown OVER 32.5 “Player Combo” (points, rebounds, assists)
First, Brown has a chance to surpass the 32.5 “player duo” in points alone. Brown is Boston's least scary three-point shooter, so he'll likely be matched up one-on-one against Dallas' weaker defenders. This has been the strategy of Celtics opponents all postseason, which is why Tatum and Brown are tied for Boston's highest usage rate of 28.8%.
Additionally, Brown has recorded 32.5 or more points, rebounds and assists in 9 of 15 games in the playoffs. He has never received more than four fouls in any game in the playoffs and was Luka's primary defender in Game 1, so Brown should see plenty of playing time on Sunday to rack up some stats.
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Dallas Mavericks PF PJ Washington OVER 12.5 points
If the Mavericks want to have a chance to win the 2024 NBA Finals, someone other than Luka and Kyrie needs to step up. The most likely candidate is Washington, who has played the third most time in these playoffs for Dallas. Washington was completely free in Game 1, scoring 14 points on 5-of-11 shooting, but was 0-of-3 on 3-pointers.
Moreover, Washington's poor outside shooting on Thursday didn't dampen their confidence. They didn't settle for 3-pointers, instead attacking the basket and making six free throws in Game 1 (4 of 6). In short, any shot other than Luka or Kyrie is a good defensive opportunity for the Celtics, so Washington should continue to have good opportunities in Game 2.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, etc.) @Jeffrey Clark Plus, check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Throughout the season, I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X.
