With Game 1 of the NBA Finals over, I currently have three basketball bets I am making: the NBA Finals, the NBA offseason, and an Olympic bet on the USA Basketball 3×3 Women’s National Team.
Jayson Tatum leads NBA Finals in assists
Jayson Tatum has played more of a facilitator role this season. He averaged 5.9 assists per game in the regular season, the second-highest total in the playoffs. The Mavericks defense seemed to be trying to take away Tatum's points, which resulted in Tatum only averaging 5 assists out of a whopping 14 in Game 1. For reference, only four players have averaged more than 14 assists in the regular season. Tatum has been increasing his passing throughout the playoffs, which is essentially a battle between him and Luka Doncic, and he currently holds a four-assist lead over Doncic.
Doncic was one of four players to average 14 or more potential assists during the regular season, and he had just one of seven potential assists in Game 1. Doncic has led the assist leader in each series of these playoffs, but he's never been in as much of a pinch as he is now. The Celtics have used Doncic more than any other team to target passes on switches instead of blitzes or drops, which means that while his assists aren't at the same levels as before, his scoring is only going up.
Tatum was at +1000 to be the assist leader at the start of the series, but this move seems to suggest that another Celtics player could lead the team in assists (highly unlikely). I think it will be a battle between the two, and I'd pick Tatum at +650, which is better if the series is long, but has a chance if the series is short.
Bed: Jayson Tatum Most Assists, +650, .35u, FanDuel (Bet up to +500)
Paul George's next team
The Thunder have enough cap space to hire players at near max value and could easily add more. With many young players on the cusp of contract extensions, this is likely their last chance to sign a true free agent. The Thunder have four starters guaranteed – two guards, a forward and a center – and will need to upgrade the position currently occupied by Josh Giddey.
Paul George is the best free agent to fill that position. He was quietly great last season, is an elite shooter and would be a perfect fit for the Thunder. In case you've forgotten, he signed with the Thunder just a few seasons ago and now he's moving up to a better Thunder team.
George and the Clippers are at odds in contract extension negotiations and don't seem particularly close in terms of years or money. If he becomes a free agent, I think there are only three real contenders: the Clippers, 76ers and Thunder. The Thunder are the best fit for him and are the team worth betting on that makes basketball sense.
Bed: Next regular season minutes Paul George plays for the Thunder, +2500, .2u, DraftKings (bet lower to +1800)
USA Basketball 3×3 Women's National Olympic Team
USA Basketball has announced the four players who will represent the women's 3×3 team in Paris.
In 2020, the U.S. women's 3×3 team won the gold medal with a team that featured Stephanie Dolson, Alisha Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young, a powerful roster that featured four WNBA players.
The members of Team USA this time are Ryne Howard, Cameron Brink, Sierra Burdick, and Haley Van Lith. While the overall talent level is not the same, Howard has already established herself as the better scorer of anyone on Team USA at that point. Brink plays great defense, Van Lith is one of the best distributors in the world, Burdick has been playing on the women's 3×3 team for a while, and all three except Howard have just won world championships.
The tournament is structured as a round robin format with eight teams competing. The top two teams will automatically advance to the semi-finals. The US team would need to lose two games, and possibly a tiebreaker, to make it to the semi-finals. The US team is favored in both games, so we would consider a negative money parlay of the two games at +250.
If you look at the lines for this match, you'll see why this bet is worth it, and with the skill of this team, I think it's worth betting on right now. Let's go for the gold medal!
Bed: USA Basketball 3×3 Women's National Team to win gold, +250, .5u, DraftKings (bet up to +200)
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