With the NBA Finals kicking off on Thursday night, the internet is awash with analysis, passionate opinions, and analysis. The Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks story is epic. Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porzingis are playing their former teams. Two untitled head coaches go head-to-head. Boston is looking to add to its league record number of championships. The Stars are looking to win their first championship.
Today, we break down some of these stories from a betting odds perspective and polled NBA experts to give their predictions for the series winner, total games played and NBA Finals MVP before the series officially begins.
The first game will air on Thursday at 8:30pm ET on ABC. Stay tuned for odds previews and predictions for each game coming soon.
All odds are taken from BetMGM. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub.
NBA Finals Winners
The Celtics, who start the series with home-court advantage, are likely to win the NBA Finals. If they win, Boston will set a new NBA championship record. They are currently tied with their rivals, the Los Angeles Lakers, for 17 NBA titles. However, this will be the first championship for the Celtics, who have not won since 2008.
In fact, regardless of which team wins these Finals, this championship will be the first crowning for the best players in the league. Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic and Jaylen Brown are the brightest stars in the league right now, but none of them have a championship ring yet. This will be Doncic's first NBA Finals.
So how good are the Celtics and Mavericks? Dallas is the sixth team in NBA history to reach the Finals as a No. 5 seed or lower. They lived up to the expectation of being the most feared lower-seeded team, defeating the No. 4 Clippers, No. 1 Thunder, and No. 3 Timberwolves. Their two stars, Doncic and Kyrie Irving, proved to be elite closers.
Meanwhile, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has never lost to the Mavericks and is 4-0 against Dallas head coach Jason Kidd. In their two regular-season meetings, Boston beat Dallas by nine points in January and 28 points in March, both times with Dallas' full lineup.
If Porzingis returns 100%, the Celtics should be able to break up the Mavericks better than any team they've played so far. But will he be 100%? Will having him back in the lineup cause friction? The Mavericks will be looking for weaknesses.
I think the Mavs' odds are good right now. They're proving competitive at the right time, but the Celtics haven't given us any reason to think they're not the best team in the league yet.
Total NBA Finals games
Going into Thursday's opener, the series is very likely to be five or six games, twice as likely as seven, with a sweep being much less likely.
If both teams play at the level we have seen them in these playoffs, this series should be very competitive and exciting, with most experts predicting it to be six or seven games total.
Expert predictions for NBA Finals winner and total games played
Expert |
Choose to win |
Total Games |
---|---|---|
James Edwards III |
Five |
|
Andrew Schlecht |
6 |
|
Jason Jones |
6 |
|
Richard Deitch |
6 |
|
David Dufour |
6 |
|
Low Murray |
7 |
|
John Hollinger |
6 |
|
Mike Prada |
6 |
|
J. E. Skeets |
7 |
|
John Krawczynski |
7 |
NBA Finals MVP
Tatum is the front-runner for NBA Finals MVP, with Doncic coming in as a natural second. Those are great odds for Doncic, who had a great game in the Mavs' last series. Brown is statistically close to Tatum so far this postseason. Of the two front-runners, Doncic is averaging 28.8 points, 8.8 assists and 9.6 rebounds per game while Tatum is averaging 26 points, 5.9 assists and 10 rebounds per game in the postseason.
Experts who picked the Celtics are divided on which player will win the MVP award, with Tatum, Brown and even Jrue Holiday all being cited as possibilities.
Everyone who supports the Mavs is supporting Doncic.
NBA Finals MVP Expert Selection
Expert |
Best Player |
---|---|
James Edwards III |
|
Andrew Schlecht |
|
Jason Jones |
|
Richard Deitch |
|
David Dufour |
|
Low Murray |
|
John Hollinger |
|
Mike Prada |
|
J. E. Skeets |
|
John Krawczynski |
(Jayson Tatum Photo: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)