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By Brett Okamoto, ESPN staff writer
Last weekend's UFC lightweight bout in Newark, New Jersey, was a momentous and emotional experience.
Islam Makhachev defended his 155-pound title against Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 302, defeating the living legend by submission in the fifth round. Of course, the big talk after the fight was whether or not Poirier would announce his retirement. He didn't, but he did hint that this might be his final appearance in the Octagon. More on that later.
Makhachev has stated his desire to move up to 170 pounds, which may be a tall order for the UFC considering the lightweight division is the most deep in the sport, but Makhachev has already beaten three of the top four contenders in the division and certainly has a case to make for a move up.
Following Makhachev’s third title defense, it’s time to reset the lightweight division.
In what weight class will Makhachev's next fight take place?
Lightweight, 99.9%. UFC had already offered a title fight to Arman Tsarukyan, who beat Charles Oliveira at UFC 300. Tsarukyan could have fought Makhachev at UFC 302, but chose to rest and have the benefit of a full camp. Sometimes UFC doesn't like to see fighters turn down such opportunities, but in this case it worked out well for everyone. UFC had no qualms about promoting Poirier in that spot on Saturday. He was well-known, well-deserved and had a good resume. Plus, Makhachev wanted to fight him.
Tsarukyan is now the clear No. 1 contender. UFC is promoting this fight with Oliveira as a No. 1 contender bout and they have no intention of breaking that promise. This is a fight for the weight class. The only thing that could potentially get in the way of this fight is if UFC champion Leon Edwards beats Belal Muhammad at UFC 304 in Manchester in July and then promotes an invitation to Makhachev to join his weight class. If Edwards were to openly target Makhachev, that could be a game changer, especially if he's willing to face him in a relatively hostile Abu Dhabi venue in October.
All are unlikely, and even if Edwards were to ask for it, there's no guarantee the UFC would go along with it. Then again, the UFC would want to honor a title fight offer to Tsarukyan. Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan at 155 pounds later this year is a sure bet, but Edwards would be a curveball.
This division is great, but could it hit a dead end anytime soon?
Unfortunately, yes. Even if Poirier doesn't retire, he's not just going to fight a promising lightweight. I know that. So if he doesn't retire, he'll be stuck in a ranked position at lightweight, which is not ideal. Same thing with Justin Gaethje. Those two guys have done a lot for this organization in recent years. They gave opportunities to younger guys (Rafael Fiziev and Benoit St. Denis). So they're not going to do it again, and you can't blame them. But they'll still be in a ranked position.
Oliveira's future is unclear. Same for Michael Chandler. And we're not just talking about the highest-ranked guys here, we're talking about big names. It might sound far-fetched, but the lightweight division is deep and it may be hard to produce a true No. 1 contender for Makhachev after Tsarukyan in the near future.
So which fighter is most likely to break through?
The answer is Mateusz Gamrot, simply because of his skill level. However, he has some big hurdles to overcome. These include:
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As mentioned before, no one ranked higher than Gamrot is going to want to fight him.
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His grappling-heavy style has not gone down well with fans, making it even tougher for him to break through.
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He doesn't have a true winning pedigree: He has a good resume, but some of his decision wins have been controversial and his 2023 win over Fiziev came due to injury.
The popular answer is Fiziev. He has style both in and out of the Octagon. Plus, he's marketable and has never fought Makhachev. But he's coming off back-to-back losses to Gaethje and Gamrot and is now out in the cold.
Sometimes a fighter from another organization is the answer, but that's not the case here. The most attractive option for Makhachev outside of UFC is Bellator MMA champion Usman Nurmagomedov, the man who was escorted out of UFC 302 for leaping across the Octagon to embrace Makhachev first after he submitted Poirier. They're teammates and practically brothers.
The favorite to put on a truly compelling bout with Makhachev is BMF's Max Holloway, but Holloway is expected to move back down to 145 pounds and while a Makhachev-Holloway bout would be star-studded, the obvious size disparity makes it unlikely.
So what does next year actually look like for the lightweight division?
Don't be discouraged, this is arguably the UFC's marquee weight class, and it will only pose serious challenges for UFC matchmaking.
As of now, the most likely scenario for next year is Makhachev facing Tsarukyan in a rematch of the bout he won in 2019. If Makhachev wins, he'll move up a weight class and challenge for the welterweight belt in early 2025.
At that point, I believe UFC will create an interim title, to reward potential challengers in the division, of course, but also to develop a threat to Makhachev. Chandler would be in strong position to get that title if he beats Conor McGregor at UFC 303 later this month. Oliveira would be a contender, too. Gaethje would be a contender, but the timing is not in his favor.
Next year will see a lot of familiar faces fighting familiar faces while some younger challengers struggle to make a name for themselves, similar to what already happened with Makhachev's title run, with the only difference being that Makhachev will get a promotional opportunity, which could result in an interim belt.
