There's an old saying in the NBA: “The team with the best player usually wins the series,” and in a sport where only five players play per team, the best players can have an incredible impact on the game.
If this were the rule, Luka Doncic's Dallas Mavericks would win the NBA Finals, even though Jayson Tatum's Boston Celtics won 14 games in the regular season. Doncic finished three spots higher (3rd) in MVP voting. Tatum may be the better defender, but Doncic averaged more points (33.9), assists (9.8) and rebounds (9.2) per game and did so more efficiently. The advanced statistics are heavily in Doncic's favor.
There's not a huge gap between five-time All-NBA First Team selection Doncic and three-time All-NBA First Team selection Tatum, but I think it's pretty much universally accepted that Doncic is a better player than Tatum, which is why more general managers said before the season that they would have Doncic on their team over Tatum.
If you use each season's MVP race as the factor that determines who voters consider to be the best player in that particular campaign, the better player has won 41 of the 68 NBA Finals since 1956, or about 60 percent of the time. So far this century, players who finished higher in MVP voting have won 12-11 Finals matchups.
Those are not impressive numbers, and they are not dogma.
But if we look more generally at who the best player was in each series, and exclude, for example, the 1993 MVP award when Charles Barkley's Phoenix Suns lost to Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls, we could make the case that the best player won 56 of the 68 championships (82.4%).
That's a pretty compelling number, enough to give some credence to the statement.
Interestingly, LeBron James has accounted for five of those 12 losses. (Bill Russell's Celtics lost to the St. Louis Hawks in 1958; Wilt Chamberlain's Los Angeles Lakers lost to the New York Knicks in 1973; Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's Milwaukee Bucks lost to the Celtics in 1974; Elvin Hayes' Washington Bullets lost to the Seattle SuperSonics in 1979; Magic Johnson's Lakers lost to the Detroit Pistons in 1989; Kobe Bryant's Lakers lost to the Pistons in 2004; Dirk Nowitzki's Mavericks lost to the Miami Heat in 2006; and James lost to the Mavericks in 2011, the San Antonio Spurs in 2014, and the Golden State Warriors in 2015, 2017, and 2018.)
If James, the best player of his generation and arguably the second-greatest in NBA history, can lose five Finals games, we should either abandon the idea altogether or engage in endless debates about the GOAT. We chose the latter.
Only one of James' five losses came while playing for a better team, and Dallas won one fewer game than Miami in 2011. James was ineligible for betting in 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018. (Doncic, incidentally, is also ineligible at BetMGM.) Six of the other seven — Russell, Chamberlain, Abdul-Jabbar, Hayes, Bryant and Nowitzki — lost as the better player. With a high-performing team.
Teams with better records have a 47-18 record in the Finals, nearly three-quarters of the time. Teams that outscore their opponents by eight or more games are 30-5 in the title series (.857 winning percentage). That's why James' win over the Warriors in 2016 is so notable: It's the only one in 10 tries by a team that won at least 14 games fewer than their Finals opponent, as in the Dallas-Boston comparison.
So is this also a doctrine?
Going back to the “best player wins the series” theory, you might think that the greater the difference between the two players, the more likely the better player is to win. But that's not necessarily the case. When two players differ by only one place in the MVP voting, the player with the higher MVP votes won 14 of the 19 Finals. When there was a difference of five or more places in the voting, the player with the more MVP votes won 13 of the 19 Finals.
Interestingly, when a higher-ranked player finishes three spots ahead of his rival in the Finals, as Doncic did against Tatum in the Finals, he has the worst record (4-7). team In the same series, they had a good record of 3 wins and 7 losses.
The more you look into it, the more random the winner seems. Every final is unique. Still, it's fair to say that the better player will often win the series. The same can be said for the better team.
And there's no question the Celtics are having the better season. They're 76-20 overall and boast a double-digit net rating in both the regular season and playoffs. While Boston and Dallas each have two of the best four players in the series, the Celtics have the next three on that list (i.e. five of the best seven players in the series).
None of this may matter. can Winning 4 out of 7 games against the Celtics. can “He's going to play better than Doncic in this series. That's the fun of sports. We'll see which principles decide who wins today.”
This was a fun exercise: sort out your own history books of “best player” and “best team” from the NBA Finals.
1955-56 NBA Finals: The Philadelphia Warriors (45-27) defeated the Fort Wayne Pistons (37-35) 4-1.
1956-57 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (44-28) beat the St. Louis Hawks (34-38) 4-3
1957-58 NBA Finals: The St. Louis Hawks (41-31) beat the Boston Celtics (49-23) 4-2.
1958-59 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (52-20) beat the Minneapolis Lakers (33-39) 4-0
1959-60 NBA FinalsThe Boston Celtics (59-16) defeated the St. Louis Hawks (46-29) 4-3.
1960-61 NBA FinalsThe Boston Celtics (57-22) defeated the St. Louis Hawks (51-28) 4-1.
1961-62 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (60-20) beat the Los Angeles Lakers (54-26) 4-3
1962-63 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (58-22) beat the Los Angeles Lakers (53-27) 4-2
1963-64 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (59-21) defeat the San Francisco Warriors (48-32) 4-1
1964-65 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (62-18) beat the Los Angeles Lakers (49-31) 4-1.
1965-66 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (54-26) beat the Los Angeles Lakers (45-35) 4-3
1966-67 NBA Finals: The Philadelphia 76ers (68-13) defeat the San Francisco Warriors (44-37) 4-2
1967-68 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (54-28) beat the Los Angeles Lakers (52-30) 4-2
1968-69 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (48-34) beat the Los Angeles Lakers (55-27) 4-3
1969-70 NBA Finals: The New York Knicks (60-22) defeated the Los Angeles Lakers (46-36) 4-3.
1970-71 NBA Finals: The Milwaukee Bucks (66-16) defeated the Baltimore Bullets (42-40) 4-0.
1971-72 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (69-13) beat the New York Knicks (48-34) 4-1.
1972-73 NBA Finals: The New York Knicks (57-25) defeated the Los Angeles Lakers (60-22) 4-1.
1973-74 NBA FinalsThe Boston Celtics (56-26) defeated the Milwaukee Bucks (59-23) 4-3.
1974-75 NBA Finals: The Golden State Warriors (48-34) beat the Washington Bullets (60-22) 4-0
1975-76 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (54-28) beat the Phoenix Suns (42-40) 4-2
1976-77 NBA FinalsThe Portland Trail Blazers (49-33) defeated the Philadelphia 76ers (50-32) 4-2.
1977-78 NBA Finals: The Washington Bullets (44-38) beat the Seattle SuperSonics (47-35) 4-3
1978-79 NBA Finals: The Seattle SuperSonics (52-30) defeated the Washington Bullets (54-28) 4-1.
1979-80 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (60-22) defeat the Philadelphia 76ers (59-23) 4-2
1980-81 NBA FinalsThe Boston Celtics (62-20) defeated the Houston Rockets (40-42) 4-2.
1981-82 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) beat the Philadelphia 76ers (58-24) 4-2
1982-83 NBA Finals: The Philadelphia 76ers (65-17) defeat the Los Angeles Lakers (58-24) 4-0
1983-84 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (62-20) beat the Los Angeles Lakers (54-28) 4-3
1984-85 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (62-20) beat the Boston Celtics (63-19) 4-2.
1985-86 NBA FinalsThe Boston Celtics (67-15) defeated the Houston Rockets (51-31) 4-2.
1986-87 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (65-17) beat the Boston Celtics (59-23) 4-2.
1987-88 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (62-20) beat the Detroit Pistons (54-28) 4-3
1988-89 NBA FinalsThe Detroit Pistons (63-19) defeated the Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) 4-0.
1989-90 NBA FinalsThe Detroit Pistons (59-23) defeated the Portland Trail Blazers (59-23) 4-1.
1990-91 NBA FinalsThe Chicago Bulls (61-21) defeated the Los Angeles Lakers (58-24) 4-1.
1991-92 NBA FinalsThe Chicago Bulls (67-15) defeated the Portland Trail Blazers (57-25) 4-2.
1992-93 NBA FinalsThe Chicago Bulls (57-25) defeated the Phoenix Suns (62-20) 4-3.
1993-94 NBA Finals: The Houston Rockets (58-24) beat the New York Knicks (57-25) 4-3.
1994-95 NBA Finals: The Houston Rockets (47-35) beat the Orlando Magic (57-25) 4-0
1995-96 NBA FinalsThe Chicago Bulls (72-10) defeated the Seattle SuperSonics (64-18) 4-2.
1996-97 NBA FinalsThe Chicago Bulls (69-13) defeated the Utah Jazz (64-18) 4-2.
1997-98 NBA FinalsThe Chicago Bulls (62-20) defeated the Utah Jazz (62-20) 4-2.
1998-99 NBA FinalsThe San Antonio Spurs (37-13) defeated the New York Knicks (27-23) 4-1.
1999-2000 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (67-15) beat the Indiana Pacers (56-26) 4-2
2000-01 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (56-26) defeat the Philadelphia 76ers (56-26) 4-1
2001-02 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (58-24) defeated the New Jersey Nets (52-30) 4-0.
2002-03 NBA FinalsThe San Antonio Spurs (60-22) defeated the New Jersey Nets (49-33) 4-2.
2003-04 NBA FinalsThe Detroit Pistons (54-28) defeated the Los Angeles Lakers (56-26) 4-1.
2004-05 NBA FinalsThe San Antonio Spurs (59-23) defeated the Detroit Pistons (54-28) 4-3.
2005-06 NBA Finals: The Miami Heat (52-30) beat the Dallas Mavericks (60-22) 4-2.
2006-07 NBA FinalsThe San Antonio Spurs (58-24) defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32) 4-0.
2007-08 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics (66-16) beat the Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) 4-2.
2008-09 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (65-17) beat the Orlando Magic (59-23) 4-1.
2009-10 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) beat the Boston Celtics (50-32) 4-3.
2010-11 NBA Finals: The Dallas Mavericks (57-25) beat the Miami Heat (58-24) 4-2
2011-12 NBA Finals: The Miami Heat (46-20) beat the Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19) 4-1.
2012-13 NBA Finals: The Miami Heat (66-16) beat the San Antonio Spurs (58-24) 4-3.
2013-14 NBA FinalsThe San Antonio Spurs (62-20) defeated the Miami Heat (54-28) 4-1.
2014-15 NBA Finals: The Golden State Warriors (67-15) beat the Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) 4-2
2015-16 NBA Finals: The Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) defeat the Golden State Warriors (73-9) 4-3
2016-17 NBA Finals: The Golden State Warriors (67-15) defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31) 4-1
2017-18 NBA Finals: The Golden State Warriors (58-24) defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32) 4-0
2018-19 NBA Finals: The Toronto Raptors (58-24) beat the Golden State Warriors (57-25) 4-2
2019-20 NBA Finals: The Los Angeles Lakers (52-19) beat the Miami Heat (44-29) 4-2
2020-21 NBA Finals: The Milwaukee Bucks (46-26) beat the Phoenix Suns (51-21) 4-2.
2021-22 NBA Finals: The Golden State Warriors (53-29) defeat the Boston Celtics (51-31) 4-2
2022-23 NBA Finals: The Denver Nuggets (53-29) beat the Miami Heat (44-38) 4-1.
2023-24 NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics
