Each series in the NBA playoffs is its own unique event, with no real continuity between the end of one series and the start of the next.
For example, the Minnesota Timberwolves beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets, but that didn't automatically make them king of the hill. Their next round series against the Dallas Mavericks presented an entirely different challenge, one that the Timberwolves' roster was far less equipped to handle. Similarly, the Indiana Pacers' valiant fight against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals tells us little about what will happen when Boston plays Dallas. Aside from a penchant for using Rick Carlisle, Indiana and Dallas bear little resemblance to each other.
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That's important knowledge to remember over the next few days as we examine every angle during the long break before the NBA Finals begin with the Celtics taking on the Mavericks on June 6. Dallas has won six of its past seven games, including Thursday's loss to Minnesota, while Boston has won 12 of its past 14 games by double-digit points.
But using these games as a point of reference to predict what will happen in the NBA Finals is a fatal flaw. The matchup between these teams will be completely different from what they faced in the previous round. In that sense, it would be good for Dallas and Boston to have a few days off to recalibrate. The formula for winning in the next round will be fundamentally different.
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Take the Celtics, for example. They just came off a series against the most extreme team in basketball and now they have to adjust to a completely different type of team, both defensively and defensively. The Pacers, in particular, have a nearly 180-degree defensive approach from Dallas. The Pacers have allowed the fewest 3-pointers in the league this season and are happy to allow drives to the rim, as long as they keep the 3-point line closed.
Boston didn't do this perfectly against the Celtics (they attempted 43 3-pointers per game in the conference finals, nearly matching their season total), but it was still a radically different approach than what Dallas did in the third round of the playoffs, when the Mavs deployed rim protectors Derek Lively II and Daniel Gafford to protect the basket at all costs and held opponents to just 50.2 percent 2-point shooting entering Game 5 of their playoff series against Minnesota.
The Mavs didn't allow many 3-pointers overall, but they were willing to allow pick-and-pop 3-pointers from opposing centers. The Clippers and Wolves were without starters to give them trouble here, but Dallas allowed the Thunder's Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams to make shots (42 in six games) and Minnesota reserve Naz Reid made 25 3-pointers in 132 minutes in the conference finals.
Needless to say, if Kristaps Porzingis is healthy (he's expected to return for the NBA Finals), it's highly questionable to employ this strategy against the Celtics. Porzingis has attempted more than six 3-pointers per game this season and has made 37.5 percent of them, with many of his attempts coming from a few feet away from the 3-point line. For comparison, Boston big man Al Horford made 41.9 percent of his attempts.
Dallas isn't the only team facing this problem. Keeping rim protectors close to the rim has been a thorny issue for Boston's opponents all season, leading to a number of creative but unsuccessful solutions. For example, Golden State tried putting Draymond Green on Jaylen Brown in the paint in an attempt to force Brown to take 3-pointers in a March game. Brown made five 3-pointers in the first seven minutes and was on track to break Wilt Chamberlain's scoring record before the Warriors had second thoughts.
I was watching the game, and in my column that weekend I delved further into the unique dilemma presented by Boston's superior shooting at all positions. Simply put, only a team that aims to survive by taking down 3-pointers and attacking the basket, like Indiana, has a chance to beat the Celtics. Sure, the Pacers lost points, but they beat Boston twice in the regular season and completely dominated them in Game 1 of the conference finals, until fate intervened…with a late 3-pointer.
In contrast, Dallas is a middling team when it comes to preventing opponents from making 3-pointers, and they played that way in the playoffs. The Mavs' big challenge will be how to adapt a defensive strategy that was near-optimal against the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves to a very different matchup with Boston. Recent events don't bode well on that front. When the Mavs rolled into Boston in March with all their new trade pieces, Boston made just 21 of 43 3-pointers and lost 138-110.
But the Celtics have some adjustments to make. Indiana is going to attack the ball whenever they get the chance, while Dallas plays a much slower, heliocentric style. Sure, the Mavs will attack opportunistically, but against the Pacers, it'll feel like switching from a techno rave to Gregorian chant.
Plus, Dallas' coach may have the best offensive player in the league, but he's playing against a defense that basically has one weakness: an inability to switch between five positions. We've seen how that worked out for Minnesota, who ranks among the best defenses in the league. Can the Celtics really survive 40+ minutes of drop coverage for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in a series? Or do they need to worry?
The Celtics have more options (for example, they could replace Porzingis with Derrick Jones Jr. to counter Dallas' Lively-Gafford pick-and-roll game) and two All-Defensive guards in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, but Doncic has seen and understood all the coverage.
Of course, there's a lot more to uncover here: Porzingis and Irving's revenge series! Luka's first NBA Finals! Jayson Tatum's chance for revenge! A flashback to the Grant Williams era! There's plenty of time to look at it all, but let's take a look at these teams. Interlude Before this final round. Each will need it for a complete tactical review.
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(Photo of Luka Doncic and Al Horford by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
