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By Jim McCormick, Special to ESPN.com
The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to tie the Western Conference Finals with a big win at home against the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night.
Luka Doncic's late play and outstanding play from Kyrie Irving led the Mavericks to an upset win earlier this week, but with the scoring being modest, this is expected to be a low-scoring game.
Given how difficult this actual series is to predict, it may be beneficial to keep an eye on some key players in the prop market tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 20.5 POINTS (-130). The price isn't ideal, but the actual scoring threshold is also pretty low — meaning it seems achievable for a guy who took 20 shots in Game 1 — so there could be some efficient results.
Derek Lively II rebounds over 6.5 (-140). Lively, who ran nearly 30 minutes in his last game, is a rebound sleeper against bigger opponents.
Luka Doncic OVER 8.5 assists (-115). As one of the few sun-centric distributors remaining on the final four teams, Doncic should lead the way in total touches and pick-and-roll possessions throughout the matchup, giving him the potential to easily outplay this passing prop.
Dallas Mavericks UNDER 101.5 points (-120). The Timberwolves are adept at closing out shooters, which could lead to a drop in Dallas' contested shot success from long distance in this second matchup.
Predictions and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury statistics by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Western Finals – Game 2
8:30 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Record (against spread)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
line: Timberwolves (-5.5) total: 207.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+185), Timberwolves (-220)
BPI Forecast: The Timberwolves are up 0.7 points, or 52%, for a total of 209.1 points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Luka Doncic (GTD – ankle); Maxi Kleber (out – shoulder); Olivier Maxence Prosper (out – ankle); Greg Brown III (out – personal)
Timberwolves: Mike Conley (GTD – Achilles); Jalen Clarke (OUT – Achilles)
