The 2023 offseason was one of the most dramatic offseasons. trail blazers history.I can't find the perfect complementary part Damian Lillard After 11 years with the franchise, Portland decided to hold on to the No. 3 overall pick and the draft. scoot henderson Perhaps instead of finding immediate help with a selection on the trade market, as the seven-time All-NBA guard had hoped.
Lillard responded with a trade request, which appears to be the general manager's intention. Joe Cronin I hoped so, even if he wouldn't admit it publicly. Not that the results were surprising. It's a rare opportunity to get the No. 3 overall pick in a draft that was considered a favorite. Not using it for veteran help was essentially a gamble on Lillard's future and a recognition of the state of the roster at the time.
That's not to say Cronin was wrong to feel that way. It wasn't a mistake that Lillard invited him. Their timelines were very different. Lillard is a small, offense-first guard who relies on his athleticism to gain separation and draw fouls. He turns 34 in July.
Portland already had it. Anfernee Simons and Shaydon Sharp, two young scoring guards were on the roster before selecting the other guard, Henderson. The writing was on the wall.
The 2023-24 season was an injury-plagued season for the Blazers, who finished with a record of 21 wins and 61 losses, tied for the second-worst in franchise history.Get a deal robert williams He played in only six games before undergoing knee surgery at the end of the season. Malcolm Brogdonhe was also acquired from Boston. Julie Holiday Deal, played 39. Sharpe plays 32. Simmons, 46. Jerami Grant54. Deandre Ayton, 55. Henderson, 62.
The Blazers have had a habit of tanking in the second half of the last few seasons, so it's natural to wonder how many of those were truly serious injuries. But the end result was that the top rotation players didn't play many games together.
Portland endured a four-game losing streak of seven or more games and ended the season with a five-game losing streak. The team's net rating of -9.0 was the same as the last-place Pistons.
Young point guards often struggle as rookies, and Henderson was no exception.According to the latest statistics, he was one of the worst — if not the worst. of Worst — NBA rotation regular last season. His true shooting percentage of .489 was particularly impressive, ranking him last among all participating players.
In addition to their own pick (No. 7 overall), the Blazers control the second lottery pick, No. 14 overall (via Golden State). In a draft that is seen as undervalued for top-end talent, the Blazers could go in a number of different directions with those picks. Adding another young guard probably doesn't make much sense, but perhaps something else is on the table.
Despite the worst season, Portland has an interesting mix of young and veteran talent on its roster. Grant will likely attract interest from many contending teams. Brogdon is no different. Although Simmons has major weaknesses defensively, he is a very talented player offensively and has the potential to continue to improve. Ayton doesn't have any positive value on his current contract, but he's still a good player. Although Henderson was a disappointment as a rookie, many considered him to be the best prospect. Victor Wenbanyama In last year's draft. Sharpe is arguably more talented than anyone on the roster and he has the best chance to be the leading scorer on a great team, but he's only 20 years old.
Trail Blazers offseason plans
As it stands, the Trail Blazers' project is on track to exceed the tentative $171.3 million luxury tax line in 24/25. They also face a bit of a roster crisis, with 11 players with guaranteed salaries, two lottery picks with guaranteed salary slots, and two second-round picks (No. 34). and 40th place) were acquired as non-guaranteed slots. Jabari Walker and Toumani Kamaraand team options Dalano Banton.
Kamara is basically the key to guaranteed salary after a promising rookie season, and Walker should be pretty happy with his position, too. While Banton had some big games late in the season, he also had a lot of bumps, with an unsustainably high usage rate and very poor overall efficiency. According to some reports, the Blazers are expected to pick up the option on the former second-round pick, but I'm not convinced that will happen.
It's not realistic to pay the luxury tax after going 21-61. That means one of the players who made more than $11 million in 2024/25 will likely be traded.
Brogdon is probably the most logical candidate. He's on an expiring $22.5 million contract and at 31 years old, he's also the oldest player on the roster. Terminating that contract would give the Blazers plenty of room under the tax line. It would also eliminate concerns about possible extension negotiations with the Sixth Man of the Year for the 2022/23 season.
However, according to reports in February, Grant and Brogdon were not moved at the trade deadline because Portland hopes to make the postseason next season. If this continues, perhaps robert williams ($25.7 million over the next two seasons) or Matisse Thybulle Instead ($22.6 million over the next two seasons, including the 25/26 player option) will be moved.
A healthy Williams would have more trade value than Thybulle because he is a better offensive player. However, Williams has a long history of knee injuries and played in just 215 regular season games (and 56 playoff appearances) over six NBA seasons. The fact that he played just six games last season means his value is probably neutral at best.
Thybulle is who he is at the moment. He's a negative on offense, but he's a great defender. I don't think the Blazers will give him a lot in return – maybe a second round pick or two – but I think he could get some positive assets.
Starting this summer, teams will be able to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, semi-annual exception and room exception to acquire players via trade. Williams ($12.4MM) and Thybulle ($11MM) both fit neatly into his MLE of non-taxpayers, which is projected to be worth $12.86MM. Considering this year's free agent class is pretty underwhelming, the possibility of acquiring Williams or Thybulle could be attractive to rival teams looking for defensive help.
I seem a little higher than the consensus on Ayton. He's definitely a frustrating player to watch, as it's clear he has the talent to be more productive than he has been in his career. I don't think he deserves the max offer sheet Indiana gave him a few years ago (which Phoenix quickly responded to). But when he's fully committed, he's a plus starter who contributes on both ends of the court. In 2021, the Suns were two wins away from winning their first championship with Ayton as their starting center, and that was no coincidence.
However, to get the most out of the former No. 1 overall pick, they need to get him involved in the offense. That rarely happened early in the season, with Portland's disorganized offense often leading to perimeter players dominating the ball. Ignoring the highest paid players is not a great recipe for success.
Ayton has shown throughout his career that his game scales well with extra touches. That remained true after his All-Star break, where he averaged 22.7 points, 12.5 rebounds, and shot 0.583 percent from the field (though his free throw percentage remained alarmingly low). He was also more consistent defensively during that stretch. If the Blazers really want to earn a play-in spot next year, Ayton needs to be the centerpiece.
I don't think that will happen. There is undeniable talent on the roster, but too many unnecessary skill sets. Almost all of the best players want to score first, but Brogdon is the only reliable decision maker. The Blazers rank last in the league in assists, assist-to-turnover ratio, 3PT%, and 2PT%, and when all of these factors come together, it's impossible to have a functional offense.
None of the young guards were great defenders, and the team was also last in the league in defensive rebounding. You could argue that some of the team's problems are due to injuries, and that's fair to some extent. But when you look at it as a whole, I think the whole roster is less than the sum of its parts.
The Western Conference is very competitive. Teams like San Antonio and Memphis, who struggled mightily in 2023/24, should be even better next season. That means Sharpe and Henderson will need to stay healthy and make significant progress if Portland is to have any chance of getting close to .500 next season. And .500 was five games out of the final play-in spot in the West for the 23/24 season.
If the Blazers struggle to start the 24/25 season and continue to do so for a few months, Grant and Brogdon will no doubt resurface in trade rumors, regardless of whether they actually move or not.
Salary cap situation
salary guarantee
Deandre Ayton ($34,005,126)- Jerami Grant ($29,793,104)
- Anfernee Simons ($25,892,857)
- Malcolm Brogdon ($22.5 million)
- robert williams ($12,428,571)
- Matisse Thybulle ($11,025,000)
- scoot henderson ($10,259,160)
- Shaydon Sharp ($6,614,160)
- chris murray ($2,990,040)
- Duo please ($2,048,780)
- ryan rupert ($1,891,857)
- Total: $159,448,655
non-guaranteed salary
- Jabari Walker ($2,019,699)
- Walker's salary will be guaranteed if he signs a contract through July 20th.
- Toumani Kamara ($1,891,857)
- Kamara's salary will be guaranteed if he is under contract through July 20th.
- Total: $3,911,556
Death/Pending Payroll
player options
team options
- Dalano Banton ($2,196,970): Non-bird rights.
- If the option is exercised, Banton's salary will be partially guaranteed at $217,533.
- Total: $2,196,970
restricted free agent
two-way free agent
draft pick
- 7th overall pick ($6,856,440)
- 14th overall pick ($4,467,960)
- 34th overall pick (no cap hold)
- 40th overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total (maximum holding amount): $11,324,400
Players eligible for extension
- Deandre Ayton (veteran)
- Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
- Anfernee Simons (veteran)
- Jabari Walker (veteran)
- robert williams (veteran)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, these players will be eligible for extensions starting in July.
unrestricted free agent
Other cap holds
- ronde hollis jefferson ($2,093,637 cap hold)
- Ben McLemore ($2,093,637 cap hold)
- Kelgin Blevins ($1,867,722 cap hold)
- TJ Leaf ($1,867,722 cap hold)
- Total (maximum holding amount): $7,922,718
Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Trail Blazers' books from the previous season because they were not waived. Cannot be used in sign-and-trade transactions.
cap exception available
Note: The Trail Blazers are above the cap and tax line, but will be below the first apron. Perhaps they will cut part of their salary to avoid taxes. If they exceed the first apron, they will lose the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and the twice-a-year exception, and will be able to take advantage of the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).
- Medium level exception for non-taxpayers: $12,859,000
- Semi-annual exception: $4,681,000
- Trade exception: $8,778,377
- Trade exception: $862,382
Note: Unless otherwise specified, trade exceptions do not expire before the start of the regular season.
Luke Adams contributed to this post.
