After starting the second round with three straight losses, the Carolina Hurricanes won back-to-back games in games 4 and 5 to officially advance to the series.
This is close to what many expected before this series began: a close, hard-fought battle between the two giants of the Metropolitan Division. While it certainly played out that way on the ice, starting with three one-goal games, the series scores told a decidedly different story.
The Hurricanes enter Thursday night's Game 6 as a relative favorite to win at home and have a very real chance to upset that scenario as they look to win three in a row to advance the series to Game 7.
The thought may be nauseating to Rangers fans, but it's a rare treat for hockey fans as a whole. This is the first time a team that started the series 0-3 has forced a Game 7 since 2014, when the Los Angeles Kings came back to beat the San Jose Sharks in the first round.
It's been a full decade since the last such instance, and the situation is rougher than it first appears.
There may be nothing more exciting in sports than seeing an underdog team come back against all odds. On a game-by-game basis, hockey fans have been blessed in that area over the past few seasons. The “most dangerous lead in hockey” still remains, but it extends to three- and four-goal cushions, and it has evaporated much faster in recent years. There is no truly safe lead in this sport.
However, that growing comeback spirit doesn't extend to the playoff series. For the past 10 years, if he leads 3-0 in the series, his deal may as well be done. It is a hopeless guarantee for the downtrodden.
That's not to say there weren't any comebacks. That means there were no Game 7s to be talked about under such circumstances, and no team even reached a close game.
To some, that may not seem like a big deal considering its rarity in hockey history. A 3-0 series lead is a vice grip that is impossible to relinquish, a feat reserved for only the greatest choke artists.
Parity in the salary cap era is still rising, but that's purely coincidental, and we should have seen a few more examples over the past decade. There is always the possibility that the most unexpected things will happen, and the fact that those possibilities do not come true is interesting.
Since 2015, teams have lost 3-0 30 times, 60% of which ended in brutal blowouts. Only four games (13%) advanced to Game 6, where the Hurricanes are now. Last year's Dallas Stars were the first team to accomplish that in eight seasons (!).
There's never a chance that a team losing 3-0 will have an advantage, but it's also not zero. At least it shouldn't be. There's a myth that a 3-0 deficit only happens to the worst teams, teams that have a very low chance of climbing out of such a hole in the first place, but it can happen even to the best teams.
Before the series began, 30 teams ranged from 17% underdogs to 77% favorites (hello, 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning) based on series prices on Sports Odds History. Of the 30 teams, 13 were expected to win from the start. Based on that, and also factoring in his diminished opinion of the team after three straight losses, he had a 4% to 20% chance of forcing at least a Game 7. The probability of return ranged from 1% to 13%.
On average, there's a 1 in 10 chance of forcing a Game 7, and a 1 in 20 chance of winning the series after losing 3-0. These are obviously small odds, but over 30 series those small odds add up.
Based on each team's odds after losing 3-0, there should have been three Game 7s and one or two true upsets. There is a zero instead. In short, we were robbed.
Some people are quick to point out the human element to all this, and that's a very fair point. They won 3-0 and many teams showed the killer instincts they needed to end the series. Trailing 3-0, many teams gave up as they saw the mountain in front of them. Sometimes, a team that loses 3-0 simply isn't as good as expected from the jump. Or the team that won 3-0 is much better.
While these points may seem valid, the chances of a team losing 3-0 not making it to Game 7, let alone making a comeback, are still so slim that even an actual qualitative counter cannot account for them. low. If there are 30 cases and the average chance of seeing a Game 7 is 10.6%, there is a 97% chance he should see at least one. If the chance of seeing a resurrection in 30 instances is 5.2%, then the probability of seeing at least one resurrection on that side is 80%.
Over the past decade, disruption has been very likely. They just haven't shown up. This can occur if the sample is small. The 30 series is definitely suitable for that.
However, in larger samples the odds tend to even out, which is best seen when looking at the beginning of the salary cap era. There, the odds perfectly reflect reality.
From 2006 to 2014, there were 38 series in which a team lost 0-3. But those teams obviously fought a little more. Teams with a high percentage won at least one game (57 percent), two forced a Game 7 and lost (Detroit and Chicago in 2011), and two of them won (Los Angeles in 2014 and 2010). (Philadelphia).
What is their average probability? Same as the past decade, 11 percent force a Game 7 and 5 percent complete a comeback.
When you add up all the probabilities, those nine years were predictably and dramatically disrupted. 4.1 in Game 7 and 2.1 in reversals. A stark contrast to what we have received over the past decade. Hockey fans have been waiting.
Just because a deadline has passed doesn't mean it will happen on time. It would be a mistake to think that there will be another Game 7 or comeback just because it hasn't happened for a while after the team lost 3-0 to him. That doesn't mean it's more likely to happen in the near future. On average, the odds of a Game 7 are still 1 in 10, and the odds of a comeback being 1 in 20.
But we are as close as we can get to the Hurricanes.
For Carolina in particular, the odds changed after winning Games 4 and 5. Currently, the probability of forcing a Game 7 is over 60 percent, and the probability of completing a comeback is over 30 percent. For the first time in a decade, we have a momentous chance to witness history.
Once again, the odds heavily favor the Rangers at 3-2, and no one is counting the chance of the Presidents Trophy champions getting that much-needed fourth win. But the Hurricanes also have a great team and have a good chance of living up to their “disruption” slogan.
(Photo: Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire, Getty Images)
