The New Jersey Devils need to improve their goaltending play. There is no dispute about this. For the past three years, general manager Tom Fitzgerald has sought to improve the position through the draft, free agency and trades, but it looks like he's back to square one. Acquiring veteran Jake Allen from Montreal at the trade deadline gives the team a strong backup who brings Stanley Cup-winning experience and much-needed leadership to a locker room in desperate need of a manager. With the reserve spot solidified, Fitzgerald said he plans to spend the summer on a “big game” hunt to land a starting goaltender. Everyone from insiders to fans has been buzzing about the names Juuse Saros, Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark as potential signings. Still, if you zoom out and look at the big picture, you'll see that the best goaltender for the Devils' future isn't any of these three, but rather current Florida Panther Anthony Stolarz.
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After playing the first six seasons of his career with the Philadelphia Flyers, Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks, the 30-year-old New Jersey native moved to the South to form the second half of a tandem with veteran Sergei Bobrovsky. headed for sunrise. In his 27 games with Florida, Straz posted stats and analysis that rank him among the best goaltenders in the NHL. He recorded a save percentage (SV%) of 0.925 and a goals against average (GAA) of 2.03, exceeding his expected 0.801 goals saved per 60 minutes. All three played at least 25 games and were among the top goaltenders in the NHL. He saved a better-than-expected 20.1 goals per game, good enough for third in the league behind Vezina Trophy finalists Connor Hellebuyck and Thatcher Demko. Over the past three seasons, he posted his second-highest high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) in the NHL at .848. Statistics are only part of the story. Despite the concerns, the positives outweigh the negatives.
Stolarz is carrier backup
Straz is no slam dunk. He has never started more than 30 games in a season. He has never played in a playoff game. One solid criticism is that he often plays against lower-tier competition as a backup. While these criticisms are accurate and should give Mr. Fitzgerald pause, none of them are or should be deal-breakers. Of the 27 games this season, nine were against teams that made it to the playoffs, and they held them to 15 goals. He gave up four points in road games against the Nashville Predators, New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs, both of which required overtime. His most memorable game of his season was a 45-save shutout against Buffalo.
Perhaps acquiring a player who is unproven as a starter will concern Devils fans. Perhaps it will remind you of the acquisition of Vitek Vanecek from the Washington Capitals. The main difference is that Vanecek was never statistically better than league average. Devils management saw something in Vanecek that wasn't recognized in Washington and felt they could get more out of him. It worked in the short term, but over time Vanecek regressed and was no longer able to play consistently, let alone steal games. When the Devils traded for Vanecek, he had appeared in 79 career games and had a career .908 SV%, 2.68 GAA, six shutouts, and a 48 quality start percentage (QS%). Stratz played in 108 games and had a batting average of .915. SV%, 2.69 GAA, 8 shutouts, QS% 58. In three of the last four seasons he has posted a QS% of 65 or higher. Vanecek has only been above 50% once in four seasons.
Can Stolarz be better than Markstrom?
Markstrom is ideal because it is finite. He has two years left on his contract and the Devils have a stable of young goaltenders in their system, making him a perfect fit for the team's timeline. He won't ask for the dreaded eight-year extension. Achieving goals is temporary and depends on so many variables that long-term contracts rarely look good beyond five years. Fitzgerald doesn't have to look far to see the pitfalls of long overtime games. Ilya Sorokin has shown overwhelming strength over the past few seasons. This year, he signed an eight-year contract extension and watched the playoffs from the bench once they started. Stolarz makes more sense than Markstrom because his best hockey is still ahead of him and he hasn't sacrificed any assets other than cap space.
The similarities are striking. Markstrom, who was the Devils' centerpiece for much of the season leading up to the trade deadline, is the same 6-foot-6 inch player as Stratz, and his stats over seven seasons are comparable, if not more favorable, to Stratz. Up until that point, neither player had appeared in a playoff game. Out of 109 games, one more than Stolarz, Markstrom had 17 games below .500 and won seven fewer games than Stolarz, who had 12 games above .500. Markstrom's counting stats weren't as good as Stolarz's with a .906 SV% and 2.91 GAA. Markstrom gave up 32 more points with one game left, giving up -24.5 points per game, which was better than expected. Markstrom, like many goalies, improved as he got older and gained more experience. He could probably surpass Markstrom's height since his floor is already good, if we can expect the same from Stolarz.
Saros and Ullmark are not worth the cost and risk.
Besides Jacob Markstrom, the devil is most closely associated with Saros and Ullmark. Both were excellent goaltenders during the regular season, but both had opportunities but failed to make it in the postseason. Saros boasts a postseason winning percentage of .313, while Ullmark is slightly better at .333, but boasts an .890 SV% and 3.49 GAA. Both acquisitions cost significant assets, and both are on expiring contracts and both are seeking long-term extensions. Their regular season success is undeniable, but giving either a significant extension comes with a big risk.
Saros is great, but has high mileage and is on the small side. He will need extraordinary athletic ability to be successful. The Devils will have to believe that a player of his modern NHL size can continue to be an elite athlete without injury into his late 30s. Ullmark poses a different kind of risk. He has the ideal size, but he has yet to prove he can be a player who can carry a team through the regular season and playoffs. Last season, he became the first player since 1990 to win the Vezina Trophy in fewer than 50 games in a full 82-game season. He started just 40 games in his career, but while he thrived as part of a duo with Jeremy Swayman, he wasn't trusted as the lead goaltender, especially in the playoffs. His measured stats through his first seven seasons were nearly identical to Stolarz's, with a .913 SV% and 2.69 GAA. Neither goaltender is a sure thing, so is the risk worth the potential reward?
The Devils' prospects and assets have dried up. The team, once a top-five group, has dropped in the rankings as top prospects have joined the NHL. Further depleting that pool and also giving up a top-10 draft pick to acquire either of these goalies on expiring contracts would hinder Fitzgerald's ability to fix other areas of the team. It will be. He still needs to rebuild and strengthen the defense, improve the bottom six and find a suitable winger to complete the top six. With a player-friendly free agent market expected, the best way to strengthen the team is through trades that require assets.
Stolarz's contract will likely cost the team about $3.5 million over three seasons, far less than the $6 million owed by Markstrom and the $5 million owed by Saros and Ullmark. It has been extended. The Devils would be wise to use their primary asset to acquire a skater, who brings much less risk and more consistent reward than a goaltender. The choice to sign Straz allows the Devils to have a rainy day fund of prospects, draft picks and cap space to combat injuries that occur as the season progresses.
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