Your team may need to survive to advance in the NHL playoffs. Losing Game 7 would be absolutely devastating for the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs. Teams that had strong results in the regular season experienced major collapses, and teams that overcame significant deficits in the series fell short.
For the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers, the first round was more of a grueling work week than a fight for survival. It's tiring, yes. But it's also fleeting. The Rangers have won four in a row, and the Hurricanes have won five in a row. Both players had time to rest, giving them an advantage ahead of what is expected to be a grueling and close series.
From a betting perspective, we are getting a feel for what to expect and who to back. I will be happy to share my findings with you.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins
Saturday, May 4th – 8pm ET
It's been a bad week for the Bruins. Despite the Maple Leafs being without superstar Auston Matthews, Boston wasted a chance to end the series in Game 5 despite an incredible performance from goaltender Jeremy Swayman. The Bruins withered against the Maple Leafs' forecheck and gave up the puck frequently.
The biggest concern was that Toronto wised up and replaced the erratic Ilya Samsonov with goaltender Joseph Woll. Wal was outstanding. When the Bruins pushed through the third period in Game 5, creating seven dangerous chances at 5-on-5, Woll's play sent the game into overtime. Losing Game 5 wouldn't be the end of the world, as long as Boston handled itself well in Game 6 to avoid a repeat of last year's nightmarish first-round collapse. Oops.
The Bruins have expressed a desire to keep the puck below the goal line and make the Maple Leafs' defensive group work. Much of Boston's offense this season has been designed from below the goal line, by spreading teams out, moving from low to high, and hitting high F3s. However, the body does not always follow the mind.
In Game 6, the Bruins' forecheck was virtually non-existent. Perhaps the Bruins' best forecheck came in the final moments of the game when Trent Frederick found the puck in the slot after Morgan Geeky and Brad Marchand effectively flooded the wall. The excitement was short-lived as Frederick failed to score, and Toronto's William Nylander scored his second goal of the game shortly after.
The strange part of the Bruins' Game 6 strategy was their lack of consistency on the forecheck. The support was too fragmented and the Bruins defense was too passive. Part of the problem for Boston was losing board battles, but mostly it was F2 and F3's inability to put pressure on the puck. Toronto got out of the zone too easily.
Still, the Maple Leafs deserve credit. As NHL Network's Mike Kelly pointed out on X, the Maple Leafs had 21 scoring chances created from successful 5-on-5 forecheck plays, far more than any other postseason team. They're checking the crazy guys and not giving the Bruins space to make plays on breakouts or in the neutral zone.
The Maple Leafs also dominated the Bruins in dirty areas. No matter how many clean entries the Bruins get, it's amazing how many times they're forced into a one-shot contest or lose the puck entirely. The Maple Leafs have become faster and better at managing the puck. And Wall has a goaltender comparable to Swayman.
The Bruins finished Thursday's game with 16 dangerous chances and more goals than expected, with some moments of success when they spread the ice. The Bruins used long passes and misdirection to break through the neutral zone. Boston tried to push the puck up the ice with flip passes and stretch passes, but also with long passes to forwards at the far blue line as a way to pave the way for players below to run through the middle zone without much resistance. I also pretended to have sent it. Upon entry, the Bruins' first wave effectively disrupted the defense and pushed it back as a way to create time and space for the puck carrier. Although this did not lead to a goal, it provides a roadmap for how Boston can get into the offensive zone in numbers and possibly retain possession in Game 7.
But the Bruins won't win on rushing alone. That means it will be important for Boston to use defensemen as playmakers who draw the puck to center ice and take shots into traffic in hopes of getting a chip and a rebound. In Game 6, the Maple Leafs were clinical in boxing out and keeping the low slot clean, but using the mobility of their defensemen to create offensive off-shots from the point was a big hit for Boston. It was an obvious way to probe and get inside.
Matthews will likely be out for Game 7, so I don't think Toronto's game plan will change much. The cycle and forecheck are working, and Nylander and Mitch Marner are at their best, allowing those two to shake off opponents in one-on-one situations, get the puck in traffic, or slip a pass into the slot. Can be done. While the Maple Leafs' 5-on-5 success during the regular season depended on their ability to get into the slot, without Matthews the focus will be on puck support rather than high-risk plays.
Will the Bruins lose the lead for the second consecutive season at 3-1? Watching Boston play two bad games in a row makes you wonder if they can thwart the cruel fate and come away with a Game 7 victory. Considering how good Wal is playing, even a much improved Bruins team might not be able to score against a stingy team. Maple Leaf Steam.
Either way, given their near-eliminated access to slots and their excellent play behind the net, I expect one or both goaltenders to concede no more than one point, and the under. I am happy to have obtained this.
Pick: Under 5.5 Total Goals -120
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers
Sunday, May 5th – 4pm ET
The Rangers won the Presidents Trophy. they should be proud. However, the Hurricanes are such a bad opponent for New York that I expect them to lose in Sunday's game and in this series.
Hockey can be simple sometimes. Spending time away from your goal is the secret to victory. During the regular season, the Hurricanes were at least in the 99th percentile for time in the defensive zone. They readily utilize stretch passes, flip passes, and one-touch-and-out breakouts to facilitate movement of the puck out of the zone.
Even if the opponent buys time in the offensive zone, a manufactured offense will be troublesome against Carolina. The Hurricanes have been elite in defending the cycle chances and slot passes allowed this season, and in the first round against the Islanders, the Hurricanes had a gaudy lead. Carolina finished with 30 (!) more cycle chances and 13 more slot shots.
One thing we saw in the Islanders series was that Carolina's rush complemented its formidable forecheck nicely. This poses a problem for the Rangers, who had one of the worst rushing defenses in the NHL during the regular season. A lot has been said about the Rangers' 1-3-1, but if the Hurricanes can beat the forecheckers on the ice, they'll find room to attack Trailer. The Rangers have trouble organizing their defense in transition, and it's likely to be even worse against the Hurricanes.
Can the Rangers' special teams decide this series? It's possible, but unlikely. New York had an excellent power play, which helped them win against the Washington Capitals. But Carolina had a great penalty kill, stacking the slot and taking away cross-seam passes. They will also be more aggressive when entering and attempting to retrieve packs. Carolina also has a good power play unit that utilizes rotation and movement. So I don't see special teams being an advantage either way. During the regular season, both teams were among the top three in the league in power play and penalty kill.
The same goes for goaltending. During the regular season, Igor Shesterkin had slightly more goals than expected (GSAx) than Frederik Andersen, and that continued into the playoffs. But even though Shesterkin has the ability to improve his play and is a much better goaltender, the advantage New York enjoys seems modest given the larger sample size. .
The top of the Rangers lineup can keep this series close. In particular, the Vincent Trocheck line has been strong all season. However, I think it's more likely that the Hurricanes will dominate the Rangers and New York will have more defensive zone time and shorter defensive coverage.
Since the Rangers can leave their weakside defenseman open, I fully expect the Hurricanes to prey on that while moving the puck around the offensive zone. Carolina can move players around like chess pieces, with high F3 players, net-front players, and defensemen working together to create slots. I don't know if Carolina will win it all this year, but I think they will make it to the conference finals.
Pick: Hurricanes Game 1 Money Line -115 & Hurricanes Series Win -162
