UFC 301 Full Advanced Prelims Prediction and Breakdown

UFC 301 is approaching, but many fans don't know that there are a lot of prelims stacked up. MMA Knockout's Matt Riddle is here to give his opinion on the fight and provide predictions.

Kevin Borjas vs. Alessandro Costa Prediction

In case some of you haven't realized it yet, this is a great start to the evening. Costa and Borjas are two of his best prospects in the UFC's unranked flyweight division. Costa has a 78% pick rate in Tapology, but based on his performance in his UFC debut against Joshua Vann, I'd give Borjas the upper hand.

Costa is a tenacious fighter. He excels anywhere in a fight and can ravage his opponents, especially in close quarters and individual combat. In his UFC debut, he immediately performed well against Amir Albazi, and in his last fight he seriously injured Erceg. However, he lacks a bit of activity and can be slow to react to shots by flyweight standards.

I think this is where Borjas' speed will allow him to pull away. Borjas' hand speed and bodywork could pay dividends as the fight progresses. He took the first round from Joshua Vann, but it was his cardio and body defense that cost him the fight. If he makes these adjustments, I could see him pull off an upset against Costa.

Pick: Borjas

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel Prediction

Pichel, 41, returns from a two-year hiatus to take on 28-year-old Bonfim, a -450 favorite. I don't like Pichel's chances here against the aggressive Bonfim. From Pichel's cautious stance, lazy boxing and low hands, it was clear he was on the receiving end of Bonfim's onslaught.

I can definitely see Bonfim coming out of the gate and catching Pichel early to finish. Otherwise, Bonfim might have worked on his cardio and planned on surpassing Pichel in the 15+.

Pick: Bonfim

Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Karekite Prediction

The two women are making their debut after their success in DWCS. Barboza has a better resume thanks to LFA, but she is much shorter and younger and has lost 4.5 inches in reach.

If you look at the tape of Barboza, she has a great jab that mixes body and head. She doesn't block punches or get out of position and doesn't commit too much to other strikes. Barbosa's cardio lasts her over 15 minutes, and her takedowns are also very effective.

Ernesta's grappling is less subtle, but her blows are more brutal. My fear for Kalekite is that she charges for a takedown and gives up her shot to her back or to the cage. Barboza is not very effective as a striker, but his play on the ground is stifling and he can easily buy control time. For this reason, I'm picking underdog Barboza as my upset opponent.

Pick: Barbosa

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Malarkey Prediction

Considering his dangerous decision victory over John Makdessi, Malarkey is effectively on a three-fight losing streak. The Australian fighter has three finishes in his UFC career so far and will be facing another puncher in Luffy – don't get me wrong, Malarkey is bait for the wolves.

Luffy is from the Fighting Nerds, so his grappling and cardio should be on point. He struggles on the active side, but more than makes up for it with his power and finishing instincts. One drawback, however, is that his rear hand is noticeably low, which can leave him wide open for Malarkey's superior left hook.

What I'm saying is that despite Luffy's technical deficiencies, he should make up for Malarkey with physicality, guts, and power. If Mullarkey doesn't get rid of him soon, he might end up fighting Naimov again.

Pick: Luffy

Joaquin Silva vs. Drucker Klose Prediction

This could be the toughest battle of the lockdown qualifiers – pick 'em doesn't really apply. Both fighters are heavy-handed and balanced on their feet and the ground. Klose, in particular, uses a great collar tie to throw uppercuts at his opponent, and Silva's frame at lightweight is something to behold. Silva fights well in both stances and has great flying knees from southpaw.

Given Silva's physical strength, I have a feeling Klose will play matador in this fight. If Silva closes the distance or launches a flying attack, Klose can use groundwork to gain position over a submission and prevent Silva from successfully grappling. Klose is a more reliable pick as he resumed his game better and took some much needed time off after his loss to Beneil Dariush and came back much improved.

Pick: Klose

Jean Silva vs. William Gomis Prediction

Gomis excels at fighting on the outside. He's a beefy 5-foot-10 featherweight who stands in a southpaw stance, kicking at range and stomping on the knees of opponents who try to swarm him. He's getting caught and dropped by fighters who shift into range, and his punches are definitely lacking. A punch that makes a fighter like Jean Silva respect his power.

Despite his antics, Silva is a very cautious fighter. He chooses to wait for his opponent to commit to a move before swinging hard with a counter punch. This could work against a fighter like Westin Wilson, but I'm not sure if Gomis is a stylistic fit for the Brazilian. First of all, Silva is a few inches shorter, which means his reach is a few inches shorter. He also stands low and wide, unable to shift his weight from his lead leg when Gomis stomps his knee.

Silva's patient style could come at a cost in this match, as Gomis isn't content playing on the outside with pot shots and kicks. If Silva gets impatient and rushes in, Gomis can circle out or take an interception shot past Silva's low hand. I could be wrong, such is the nature of MMA, but I would choose Gomis in this matchup.

Pick: Gomis

Prediction for Elf Brenner vs. Miktibek Olorubai

Between these two finishers, it's kill or be killed. This is also a great match. I think Olorubai's wrestling and Brenner's grit are the deciding factors in this match. In his debut match against Uros Medic, Olorubai showed great ability to control, damage, and finish off his opponent, and in his match against Brenner, he proudly displayed his inhuman strength.

Brenner is a student of chute boxe, so his aggressive grappling is always a threat. His chute boxer's patented aggressive striking style may not help in a fight against a position-oriented grappler like Olorubai, who is quick to go for a takedown if Brenner gets too stretched out. I believe this will be the story of this fight – Olorubai keeping pressure off Brenner and controlling him on the ground.

Pick: Ororubai

Prediction for Iasmin Lucindo vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Polish UFC veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz may not have the greatest decision-making ability, but in her last four fights, she's shown complete determination and experience. Lucindo has had a tough fight, and while she is aggressive and strong, she has shown that she is more susceptible to being taken down by lesser fighters than Kowalkiewicz.

I think the question for Kowalkiewicz is whether he survives the onslaught. Kowalkiewicz should be able to use his veteran knowledge to shut down Lucindo and “just win the match” by holding up against the cage or taking potshots to his legs.

Pick: Kowalkiewicz

Joan Delson Brito vs. Jack Shore Prediction

I think the most interesting fight for me in the prelims is it all comes down to one thing. It's whether Jack Shore can put up his perfect 15 minute fight.

role of Deontay Wilder I once said“They have to be perfect for 36 minutes, but I only have to be perfect for two seconds.” This is definitely the case with Joan Delson-Brito, who faced Jonathan Pierce in his last match. Just like in the battle, one gap can lead to victory.

I think the main drawback of the Shore is this. He wasn't an eccentric athlete by nature, and most of his impressive wins were hard fought. This is (in my opinion) the case with fighters like Brad Liddell. He can beat almost anyone, but he can't afford to make one mistake. I fully believe Shore can do that against Brito, but the Brazilian is the safe choice here.

Pick: Burrito

continue MMA knockout For more daily UFC and MMA coverage