The Calder Trophy finalists were announced this Tuesday, confirming what we've known for months: Connor Bedard and Brock Faber are the finalists. The final clash between the 2023 No. 1 overall pick's highlight-reel offense and a chipper-devouring rookie defenseman finally comes to a head with Luke Hughes of the New Jersey Devils.
It's a shame we'll have to wait a little longer to find out whether Bedard or Faber will be voted Best Newcomer. Because, like the presidential campaign, this issue has already dragged on for months. Bedard was clearly the favorite to start the season, and Faber's candidacy began to solidify around early December. Once Faber regained momentum, outscoring opponents 33-21 at 5-on-5 through the end of 2023, the Bedard vs. Faber narrative all but calcified.
Mr. Faber's candidacy represented a new way of thinking in award voting. The league typically awards the most Calder Trophies to the rookie who scores the most points. So the idea that a defensive defenseman like Faber could make award-winning plays would be useful in a better world, a world where impact isn't measured solely in goals and assists, where voters would be able to accurately track trends. It seemed like the promise of a graspable world. analysis.
Now that we know the finalists, we know that's not the case. Are these three the best rookies? If you look at certain categories, yes. You can probably guess which one it is.
Points leader, 2023-24 rookie:
1. Connor Bedard, 62 years old
T-2.Brock Faber, 47 years old
T-2.Luke Hughes, 47 years old
Now, that doesn't necessarily mean these three weren't the best rookies this season. The best players in the league tend to score large amounts of points. But what is becoming clear about these finalists is how difficult it is to find this trio of players (let alone together) when measuring play by means other than points.
As someone who learned advanced statistics through baseball, I'm drawn to the guiding Wins Above Replacement model. Not one, but two of these can be found in his Evolving-Hockey. Let's start with standing points above replacement (because standing points, not wins, determine playoff teams). Who are the three best rookies among them?
SPAR Leaders, 2023-24 Rookies:
1. Tyson Forster, 3.9
2. Luke Evangelista, 3.5
3. Block Favor, 3.0
Kudos to Faber for bringing together the theoretical finalists here. But Bedard and Hughes were nowhere to be seen. Through just 24 games, Bedard has provided the Chicago Blackhawks with 2.2 points worth of value, just below the Dallas Stars' Logan Stankoven (2.3 SPAR). Hughes ranks tied for 44th with just 0.4 SPAR, barely above replacement level.
Then xStandings Points Above Replacement, Evolving-Hockey is also the host. xSPAR is his SPAR model that is heavily based on the model developed by Emmanuel Perry at Corsica, an early advanced statistics site that is now defunct. How good will Calder's finalists be able to perform there?
xSPAR Leader, 2023-24 Rookie:
1. Marco Rossi, 3.8
2. Tyson Forster, 3.7
3. Connor Zary, 3.2
Hughes showed us well this time. Still, he finished in fourth place with his 2.8 xSPAR. In fact, it's extremely tough for both Faber and Bedard. Not only does Faber rank tied for 42nd among rookies, he's also a distant second as the team's second-best defenseman. In his 31 games this season he used 1.9 xSPAR which he contributes to Declan Chisholm. Bedard is ranked 55th, which is just a fill-in level.
There aren't many more publicly available “all-in-one” statistics, but one such effort is Net Rating, developed by American hockey writer Dom Luszczyszyn. The Athletic. The concept of net rating is simple. How much does having a player on an average team affect goal difference over a full season?
Net Ratings Leaders, 2023-24 Rookies:
1. Luke Hughes, +5.1
2. Tyson Forster, +4.6
3. Brock Favor, +4.2
We're the closest we've come to bringing together all three Calder finalists. Hughes and Faber occupy the top three spots, but Bedard is in the cellar with a -2.7 net rating. I don't think 2 out of 3 are bad.
However, let's start speaking in English and use some statistics that are easy to understand. What about the goal difference? If you're better than your opponent, that's a good thing, right? There are 39 rookies who have played more than 500 minutes of 5-on-5 play. Take a look at your leader:
5-on-5 goal differential leader, 2023-24 rookie:
1. Connor Zary, +15
T-3. Martin Pospisil, +15
T-3. Michael Kesselring, +13
Our finalists are far from the top. Faber leads the Calder finalists with a rating of 0, while Hughes (-4) and Bedard (-30) are 26th and 38th, respectively. But it's impossible to completely control, for example, what shots are taken or how the goaltending behind you performs. So, with that in mind, let's take a look at how these 39 rookies controlled their scoring chances with expected goal differential.
Expected goal differential for 5-on-5 rookies for the 2023-24 season:
1. Luke Evangelista, +10.07
2. Tyson Forster, +8.24
3. Marco Rossi, +6.35
This is also a category where Hughes narrowly missed qualifying (4th place at +6.00) and Faber slipped into the top 10 (9th place to be exact) with a +3.61 difference. Once again, Bedard is at a disadvantage in 37th place, with an expected goal difference of -16.55 at 5v5. Better than -30, but still far behind the pack.
Even if you want to see points, seeing raw points can be problematic since not all players are equal when it comes to power play roles. Look at Brock Faber. He was seen as a pure defensive defenseman until he started on Minnesota's power play. Of course, his role at 5-on-5 may change as well, but the impact of those roles won't sway his race for points as heavily as if he added his points on the power play into the mix. Here are the points races in 5v5 play:
5-on-5 points leader, 2023-24 rookie:
1. Connor Bedard, 34 years old
T-2.Marco Rossi, 33 years old
T-3.Matthew Nys, 33 years old
Bedard remained a points favorite, with Faber tied with Cooley for sixth place (26 points) and Hughes' 16 points tied him for 22nd place with Leo Carlson.
It's probably unfair to criticize PHWA voters without revealing yourself, so here's how my vote would break down if I were given one.
Tony Abbott's inauthentic Calder Trophy vote:
1. Tyson Forster. The Philadelphia Flyer has too many boxes to ignore. An up-and-coming power forward who can score goals and play Zelke Trophy-caliber defense is an invaluable asset, and it won't be easy for the 22-year-old to earn John Tortorella's trust. It's a shame he didn't get more attention on a Flyers team that was more competitive than it should have been.
2. Marco Rossi. In some ways, Rossi's nomination for the Masterton Trophy feels like the Minnesota PHWA chapter has thrown a bone to Rossi, who has been putting effort into Faber's camp. But Rossi is a worthy candidate in his own right, and I would argue that more so than Faber. His two-way game was outstanding throughout the season, positively impacting both goals and scoring chances. He also added 21 goals and showed he has that dog in him.
3. Logan Stankoven. Why does a rookie have to play most of the season to get Calder's consideration? This award is given to “the player selected as the most skilled player in the National Hockey League's first year of competition.” What excludes Stankoven from that definition? In just 24 games, Stankoven is tied for 6th in SPAR (2.3) and tied for 13th in xSPAR (1.3). He scored six goals and 14 points in just 352 minutes, second only to Bedard in scoring in every situation. His only fault is that the Dallas Stars didn't call him up sooner, but I don't blame him for that.
Of the three candidates, Faber is the obvious choice based on the numbers. But even if you dig just as deep, there's a good chance she won't get all three members, or perhaps even any of them, among the finalists. But it's clear that's what voters want.
They seemed to choose to emphasize points based on the pool of finalists and little else. Any protest by some voters against Mr. Bedard's almost inevitable elevation of Mr. Calder will belied this fact. If all that matters to voters is points, they can get the award winners they deserve.
