The 2024 NHL Playoffs first round matchup is one of the best in recent memory. The West is particularly intrigued by the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Las Vegas Golden Knights, and are attracting perhaps the league's best team, the Dallas Stars. The best offense in the NHL (Colorado Avalanche) faces the No. 2 defense (Winnipeg Jets). The Edmonton Oilers will once again be tangled up with the Los Angeles Kings. And finally, what is expected to be the most physical series of the first round is Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks. Each series has drama and is full of stories.
We have a lot to look forward to over the next few months. I'm happy to offer my favorite bets on three of the Western series.
Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets
The last time these two teams met, the Winnipeg Jets defeated the Colorado Avalanche 7-0. Concerns about Avs goaltender Alexander Georgiev were all but erased when he allowed four goals on 15 shots. But Georgiev's difficulties were only part of the story.
The Jets sacrificed the Avalanche on the backdoor, using their speed and size to gain inside position with passes to the far post. Georgiev can struggle when the puck is tight, and Colorado hasn't been able to solve the problem with inconsistent boxing out lately. On a 5-on-5 power play, the Jets' lead ballooned in the first period, putting the game out of reach.
Colorado's ability to protect around the crease will be a big focus in Games 1 and 2, as the home Jets will no doubt try to use the slingshot effect of the lively boards to pop the puck into the low slot. . But I also think it's a mistake to overestimate the Avalanche's defensive shortcomings and Winnipeg's ability to bully them around the paint. The Abs ranked outside the top 10 in dangerous chances and behind Winnipeg in expected goals.
During the engagement, the Avalanche can effectively gap up and use their speed to direct the puck north and provide a rush. The Avalanche have mobile defensemen who can carry the puck from the end and utilize stretch passes for quick transitions. Goaltending is a big question mark for Colorado, but I expect Winnipeg to see more rebound from the Avs when they're in the offensive zone.
Another pressing question in this series will be whether Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon will play alongside Mikko Rantanen. Together, these two have a +31 goal differential at 5-on-5 and may seem unstoppable. But even if Winnipeg coach Rick Bowness used Adam Lowry's line and it hindered them, could Colorado still win?
The Avalanche's lack of secondary scoring was the reason they were upset by the Seattle Kraken in last year's playoffs, and despite making some big moves right before the deadline, how Colorado will make up its top six I don't fully understand that. It's not McKinnon's lines or bust. Obviously, this is coach Jared Bednar's focus, and my suspicion is that he will start the series with MacKinnon and Rantanen. But if that line is effectively blocked, Bednar will need to split them up immediately.
The Jets are a weak defensive team, but the problem for the Jets this season has been their chances of giving up rebounds. Abs loves to bring forward high and shoot to the depth of players in the slot. If that happens, the Jets will need to get their coverages sorted out. Still, if the Avs can get out of the zone cleanly, taking advantage of the second wave of rushes can be deadly. The Jets are very good at denying slot shots, but Colorado is one of the best teams in the league at pushing back the first defensive line and making room for Trailer to get into the slot.
Still, if the Avs can only score on the rush, their path to winning the series may be too narrow. They need an effective forecheck to establish a cycle, take pressure off vulnerable goaltenders and stop Jets guard Connor Hellebuyck, who had the league's highest goals against average (GSAx) this season. There is. The Jets overload one side, leaving the weak side defenseman open. The Avs need to be able to use non-scoring areas to protect the puck along the boards and take advantage of the width of the ice with passes.
You may remember from a year ago that the Boston Bruins finished the regular season with eight straight wins. They went on to win three of their next four postseason games. But then the blowout happened, with Boston dropping three games and losing the series in shocking fashion.
A similar disaster could happen if Winnipeg ends this season with eight straight wins. The last time the Jets won eight straight games this season, they won two after the streak stopped, but then lost five straight. On the other hand, the Avalanche have lost seven of their last 11 games and are in a slump, but considering the regular season, it's a good time to buy. Goaltending is a concern, but I'm going to use the soon-to-be league MVP (MacKinnon) and probably the league's best defenseman (Kale Makar) to avoid consecutive first-round losses for the Avs.
Pick: Avalanche Series Winner -138
Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks
I think this will be the most physically draining game of the first round playoff series. Both teams have the skill and speed to create a rush, but I expect this to be a matchup that will come down to who has more success on the forecheck and cycle.
Defensively, the Predators' desire to protect the middle of the ice causes five players to fall under the top of the circle and try to protect the slot. In addition to the chaos likely to occur around the inside, the Canucks' MO is creating shots on multiple Vancouver teams at the net, obscuring opposing goaltenders' lines of sight, and creating opportunities off tips and rebounds. Against Nashville's Juuse Saros at 5:11, the Canucks will tend to use traffic to steal the eye of the goaltender and go into overdrive.
At the end of the day, there are three reasons why I believe the Canucks will win this series. First, I worry that the Predators won't be able to generate enough offense if their line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist is hampered by the Canucks' shutdown line. When this line wasn't on the ice, the Predators had a +9 expected goals at 5-on-5 and were well above the water in dangerous chances. But the playoffs are a different beast, and I'm concerned that Nashville's depth issues will catch up with the Canucks' best skill.
Second, the Predators' penalty kill numbers are below average, and the Canucks' power play ranks outside the top 10. The Canucks don't play much with the man advantage, but the ones they do utilize are effective. Elias Pettersson was near the net after Quinn Hughes' shot. Pettersson's one-timer. Backdoor play Brock Boeser. The Canucks will likely try to steal Saros' eyeballs on the power play, and Vancouver has a variety of options, but it remains to be seen if the Predators can keep the interior clean and eliminate skill on the wing.
Finally, Saros has a MassMutual commercial, but Canucks netminder Thatcher Demko has been better this season. Also, GSAx and Goals Save Above Average (GSAA) are not that close. The Canucks boast talent, special teams, and a goaltending advantage, so I hope they win a tough, tough series.
Pick: Canucks Series Winner -150
Las Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars
The Golden Knights were very aggressive and smart at the trade deadline, and the urgency of their actions reflected a franchise looking to make the most of its Stanley Cup opportunity. The road to repeat is never easy, but Las Vegas has some surprisingly difficult roads ahead.
On FanDuel, the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Colorado Avalanche have the shortest odds to win the Cup from the West, and these teams could be the Golden Knights' three opponents on their return trip. . In the first round, the Knights will face the franchise with the lowest odds in the West, having won 12 of its past 14 games.
Can the Golden Knights disrupt this series and stifle the Stars' elite offense? That's the big question. And the main priority for slowing Dallas is keeping the Stars' rush at their knees. The Stars have been the best team in advanced defensive stats this season, and no team in the NHL capitalizes on this fact more than they do.
As soon as the Stars disrupt the play and the puck comes loose, the forwards fly through the zone and create a transition opportunity. This puts the opponent in a predicament. Creating scoring opportunities in the cycle against Dallas requires being aggressive and using a lot of motion with defensemen almost certainly in a pinch. But when the puck heads toward the boards and the Stars forwards get behind the defense, that overextended attacking stance suddenly becomes vulnerable.
The Golden Knights want their defensemen to be active and stand up at the line, but their ability to disrupt the Stars' stretch passes and how well they coordinate with the forwards on the Stars' four-man rush opportunities will depend on them. , will be pivotal in Vegas' ability to do so. Block Dallas' offensive power.
Even if the Golden Knights are able to turn this series into a grind, it will be fascinating to see how they block shots and get out of the zone. They are notorious shot blockers and will try to stack up the middle and take away shooting lanes. However, I expect the Stars to use fly-by screens and high forwards to climb the slot and penetrate the defense, rather than relying on cross-seam passes. And when those pucks go into the corners, how committed will Vegas be to carrying the puck away or making a direct pass?
When the Golden Knights are at their most stubborn, they use short and intermediate passes to try to leave the zone, allowing for great scoring opportunities from missed passes. If the Stars' aggressive forecheck can hold the line and take away stretch passes, will the Golden Knights' inflexibility on their own end affect the Stars' forecheck and cycle?
It's tough to evaluate the deadline post-trade considering the Golden Knights will be without Mark Stone, who played a key role in their past and future success. There aren't many teams that can match Dallas in terms of depth, but the Golden Knights are one of them.
Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger had a so-so season with a GSAx of 1.46 (worse than Ville Husso, for context). You can also imagine the Golden Knights being patient and taking some chances to weaken the Stars' offense.
There is a scenario where the Golden Knights win this series – no question about it. But can you pick perhaps the best team in the league in the first round, fully healthy and 130 points away from winning? I'd be happy to oblige.
Pick: Star to win the series -130
