In November, U.S. Soccer made a bet that hiring Emma Hayes would be worth sacrificing a year of continued preparation under permanent supervision. An interim management team has overseen the U.S. women's national team for eight months following the 2023 World Cup. To her credit, her tenure as Twila Kilgore's placeholder helped turn the roster around and helped her team win her second of this spring's tune-up tournaments. Contributed.
Still, it was a lost year for the program at a time when a clear new vision was desperately needed. There are still two months until Hayes' first game as USWNT coach in June, making the post-World Cup interlude 10 months and a full seven months since taking over in November.
With the CONCACAF W Gold Cup and SheBelieves Cup behind us, it's time to make a judgment call. Is the program better prepared to compete at the Paris Olympics than it was when Sweden was eliminated from the World Cup?
The 2023 World Cup cycle (and by association the Vlatko Andonovski era) stands out as the USWNT's lowest point on the field.
The belated 2020 Olympics raised red flags as an aging core of athletes competed with varying levels of fitness against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. The team played all of its games in empty stadiums, a far cry from the enthusiastic cheering typically seen at major tournaments, and the team ultimately lost to Canada in the semifinals.
Rather than heeding the lessons learned from that tournament, Andonovski has implemented them primarily in the lead-up to the 2023 World Cup, which will be held in Australia and New Zealand. The team's style of play did not allow them to penetrate the final third and often looked lethargic.Multiple players were unable to see the field for even a minute as the U.S. advanced from its group. Thanks in part to my teammates' goal posts. Portugal match. The relief was short-lived, however, as the United States lost in the round of 16 on penalties to another longtime rival, Sweden.
By advanced metrics, the U.S. had some good performances in the tournament's four games. No team has fewer shots per 90 than the team's 4.6, and their average xG advantage per 90 is 2.14-0.32, making them certainly a “contender” on their own. However, the challenges in build-up and chance creation were clear.
The team moved up the field fast enough, recording an upfield forward speed of 1.71 meters per second, ranking 11th in the tournament field.
Speed isn't everything. Tournaments are notorious for guiding decisions through small sample sizes, and trend lines are far from conclusive. Despite this, none of the 10 teams ranked higher in direct speed advanced beyond the Round of 16 in the tournament.
Pushing the pace and advancing the ball up the field is a helpful tool in transition, but the USWNT seemed to be lacking ideas when encountering opposing defenses in the final third. All four teams with high direct speed were also eliminated in the round of 16. Not surprisingly, all five teams that averaged fewer goals per 90 points than the United States also failed to advance beyond the quarterfinals.
Making a direct and sharp third and final decision should not be treated as mutually exclusive propositions. Given the talent the USWNT has at their disposal, it could create a near-unstoppable balance on offense. Ultimately, the federation wanted to ensure teams were better equipped to make smart decisions to score reliably.
“There was definitely a sense that we needed to be better with the ball and have more solutions,” U.S. Soccer sporting director Matt Crocker said in September. The federation surveyed players when searching for coaches, and much of the tactical feedback focused on building attacks, playing in midfield, “creative solutions in tight spaces and breaking low blocks.” It was concerned with 'players and tactics'.
Despite spending the entire cycle moving the ball despite the midfield, they wanted to take advantage of the engine room, despite Kim McCauley's brilliantly branded 'prayer wheel formation'.
Hayes is a tactical chameleon at the helm of Chelsea's giants, adept at destroying low blocks. Rather than giving arbitrary guidance, he makes plans with the other person in mind. Each game's instructions are created with his one objective in mind: to win above all else.
You can see the surface-level appeal of hiring a coach who habitually works to overcome the kind of cynical tactics that sank the team last summer. The catch is that while Hayes admits his “full attention is focused on what I do for Chelsea”, the team will have to wait until the end of the season.
If there's been a highlight performance in the past 10 months, it's the Gold Cup quarter-final against Colombia. In the previous group stage, the USWNT was frustrated with opponents like Argentina and Mexico sitting on the low block, as Kilgore maintained a possession-oriented structure that was perhaps too similar to Andonovski. . The ball circulation pattern delayed the team's build-up, giving their defensive-minded opponents more time to find their ideal positioning.
Colombia were last summer's World Cup quarter-finalists and were blessed with Linda Caicedo, one of the world's great young attackers, and a team suited to her skill set during the hiatus. Kilgore sought to take advantage of this tendency by forcing his team to play directly. With that he accomplished two things. That means increasing the strength of the offense going forward and reducing turnovers in the defensive half, which plays to Colombia's strengths. The 3-0 victory was proof that the USWNT was back with points.
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In the rain-soaked semi-final against Canada, it was impossible for the team to maintain a similar scoring lead, and in the final against Brazil, the team opted for a more controlled style of play and won 1-0. This resulted in the team securing victory in the first Gold Cup.
Still, the team failed to demonstrate the ability to consistently produce the goals needed to prepare better for the Olympics than the World Cup. Fortunately, SheBelieves is just around the corner, providing Crocker with another match against a high-level opponent to showcase the “creative solutions in tight spaces” he was hoping for. I did.
Japan had other ideas. Kiko Seike became the first player since 2003 to score in the first minute of a game against the USWNT, and she put the hosts down 1-0 from the start. A deft high press allowed the Americans to tie the score after 20 minutes, and a penalty kick in the 77th minute sealed the 2-1 victory for the Americans. Although it was a professional result, it did not exemplify the principles that U.S. Soccer has strived for.
Next up was against Canada, where Kilgore moved one of his usual four attackers down to put a second pivot at the base of the midfield. Intentionally or not, this brought the team back to the prayer wheel trend.
“Our offense is not built around one player. That's by design,” Kilgore said ahead of the finals. “It's important that we have the ability to score goals from different ways. And even though we have these predictable moments that we're looking for, different people play different roles and get away early. It's important to be able to recognize when someone needs to cross or run first.”
Just over five minutes into the final against Canada, the USWNT seemed to be looking at different ways to create chances after a tackle by Lindsay Horan forced Sophia Smith to counter.
Oh, that's too bad for Canada. It's time to prepare for another wave of attacks.
No, it's not a prayer circle.
No, no, no, no –
More than 30 minutes later, Canada took the lead after a miscommunication between goaltender Alyssa Neher and the defense. Once again, the United States was forced to respond to the match after allowing its opponent to establish terms.
In the end, a new batch of Neher shootout heroics made the USWNT the SheBelieves champions once again. The two goals conceded could be due to individual mistakes.
But the same can be said for the USWNT's performance last summer. Although the team controlled the game for the most part, they did not have enough possession to convert possession into goals, but there were also many gaffes.
Is this team really better equipped to compete at the Olympics than last year?
If you're looking for evidence of progress since August, you'll need to start by looking at individual players. Alex Morgan struggled at the World Cup, but her nifty line-leading work was essential to positive success against Colombia. Mallory Swanson and Katarina Macario returned from injuries that limited them in 2023 and kept pace with the games around them for the most part.
In the aftermath of the World Cup, it was inevitable that some of the program's mainstays would make way for the next generation. Julie Ertz and Megan Rapinoe both played send-off games, but captain Becky Sauerbrunn sat out. Horan has stepped up as a team leader and Naomi Girma is already having a similar impact despite only being 23 years old.
Young players benefited from Kilgore's call-up. Jenna Neiswonger is a breath of fresh air at left-back, providing much-needed width in the build-up in a role that had previously been directed to play in midfield under Andonovski. Jadyn Shaw was the latest revelation on offense, showing precocious decision-making in transition while being a capable finisher for the first time. Sam Coffey looks poised to be the team's future defensive midfielder, and Corbin Albert's all-around play makes it seem like she could be Horan's successor in midfield. (pending off-field issues that could affect her standing in the locker room).
In order to overcome the four-year hardship, it is essential for promising young players to step up. But how many players like Nicewonger, Shaw, and Coffey will need to reassess their preparations if Hayes comes in? How closely is Hayes watching and evaluating the upcoming group of players? remains an open question. If the answer is less than “insightful,” you'll likely need to win a second first impression to stay ahead of a more seasoned replacement.
After all, no matter who is selected for the 18-man Olympic roster, there is no telling how they will play in Paris. Questions that have dogged the program still don't have definitive answers.
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In appointing a coach who hadn't started work in more than six months, the USSF gambled that her qualities were far more appealing than any other coach's and worth spending six months in purgatory.
The three friendlies this summer will be against South Korea and Mexico. Although neither will be participating in the Olympics, there is no doubt that they will want to score a victory against one of the world's most famous teams in any sport. They plan to offer the test to Hayes while he is still searching for answers.
On Tuesday, the final members of the USWNT's Olympic group also qualified. Zambia join the United States, Germany and Australia in Group B. Australia were last summer's semi-finalists. Germany need to prove themselves after failing to advance through the group stage, while Zambia are looking good in their first World Cup appearance. It would be natural for the United States to advance to the final tournament, not to mention their ambitions to win a medal.
It would be easy to focus on the 2027 World Cup, which could be held at home, and to cast the poor performance in Paris as a short-term sacrifice. However, this is not a program that treats major tournaments as a development tool. When the United States competes in the women's soccer tournament, it's there to win. It's a benchmark that has been established among players for generations, and it's also a benchmark that fans are held accountable to.
Every performance from these players will be under scrutiny this summer, and their future choices will (or should) be a more important factor than Hayes' job. If the program's decision to spend months under interim leadership backfires, the blame will be placed on them, which would be unfair.
(Photo: Brad Smith/Getty Images, USSF)
