There are only five games tonight, but three of them are functionally irrelevant unless you think the Blazers can beat Golden State.
Still, when you combine the remaining two with last night's results, there's a lot to discuss again.
In the East, the biggest news was that Orlando lost to a team lacking players in Milwaukee. This puts the Magic in a dangerous position of slipping down the seed table. They lived to earn the 2nd seed with a win, but now they could drop as low as 8th!!! More on that later.
The Bucks, on the other hand, are in good enough shape to remain the No. 2 seed or, at worst, fall to the No. 3 seed. If the Bucks win or lose against Cleveland, they will clinch the Central Division, and if they win, they will also clinch the No. 2 seed.
However, the Bucks' final two games will be in Oklahoma City and Orlando. Two losses would clear the way for Cleveland and New York to move up and push the Bucks to the No. 4 seed, but only if both teams win — which requires seven different game outcomes that don't go Milwaukee's way. Is required.
Tonight's game between New York and Boston is the most important game in the East. The Celtics are great, but they already have the top overall seed in the playoffs, so we'll see which Celtics actually play for how long. (Also, shout out to Celtics GM Brad Stevens, who was here in Portland watching Hoop Summit practice in the cold as news of Jrue Holiday's extension broke.)
If the Knicks win their remaining three games and the Bucks lose their remaining two, they can still claim the No. 2 seed. More realistically, New York could clinch the 3 seed (and importantly avoid the mighty Boston side of the bracket) with two wins and either a Cleveland loss or a Milwaukee win. ). (Yes, a Bucks win would help in this scenario. A 3-way tie with the Bucks and Cavs at 49 wins would drop the Knicks to 4th place, but a 2-way tie with the Cavs at 49 wins would put New York in 3rd place.) .)
And should the Knicks lose two of their final three games? This opens up a more chaotic scenario as the Magic and Pacers could pass them and drop New York to 6th place. I will do it.
Either way, Cavs fans should root for Boston. A 2-2 win for either New York or Milwaukee is the formula needed for Cleveland to move into second or third place.
Now, back to Orlando. It would be very easy for things to suddenly go very bad, even though Miami is also losing. Surprisingly, the Heat could still win the division even with Orlando at 2-2, and that scenario would likely see Orlando fall to the No. 8 seed. That's a possibility, as Miami takes on a tank-like Raptors team in its final two games, and Orlando has two loseable games remaining against Philadelphia and Milwaukee.
The Magic, on the other hand, need just one win to win the division and secure a top-six seed, barring a very unusual scenario where they finish in seventh place. (Philadelphia and Indiana win, Cleveland beats Charlotte, and New York wins at least once.)
A loss to Orlando would also help Philadelphia's hopes of avoiding the play-in. Both teams will play on Friday. To move up to No. 6, Philadelphia must win that game and Sunday's final game, have one more loss to Orlando, two losses to Cleveland, two losses to Indiana, or two wins against Indiana. One of these is required.
In the West, tonight's focus is on the New Orleans vs. Sacramento game. I'm clinging to a scenario where the Kings win, the Pelicans lose their final three games, and Sacramento takes the No. 6 seed. New Orleans will play the Warriors and Lakers, so it's not completely far-fetched.
The focus is on Phoenix. I hope the Suns win and the Pelicans lose at least once to take the No. 6 spot. The combination of the Suns' three losses and the Pelicans' win locks up New Orleans' No. 6 spot.
Meanwhile, the Kings could still finish in 10th place. If they lose and win against Golden State, the Lakers, Warriors and Kings will be tied at 45-35. However, Sacramento still holds the tiebreaker and has two wins over both opponents. Both the Lakers and Warriors need two losses to the Kings and no more than that to get past Sacramento. By the way, Golden State also wins the tiebreaker against the Lakers and, assuming they beat Portland tonight, would move up to 9th place.
But what we really care about is MAXIMUM CHAOS. So I'd like to present a scenario where the Lakers and Warriors win, the Kings beat New Orleans and Portland but lose to Phoenix, and the Suns lose to Minnesota.
In that case, New Orleans, Sacramento, Phoenix, Lakers and Warriors would end the season tied at 47-35.
Sadly, resolving this tiebreaker would be relatively easier than dragging us into the underworld of records with conference playoff teams and other arcana on tiebreaker charts. Based on the head-to-head record of the first tiebreaker, Phoenix ranks sixth, Golden State seventh, Sacramento eighth, New Orleans ninth and the Lakers 10th.
Still, this shows the Pelicans' work isn't done yet. It would be quite a fall to drop to 9th place and need two wins next week to qualify for the play-offs.
With last night's win over Minnesota, Denver clinched the top seed in the West, but the Nuggets' work is not done yet. There's a difficult game Friday in San Antonio, where Victor Wembaneyama is likely to play, and a loss would put Oklahoma City back in pole position and take over the No. 1 seed. The Thunder won a three-way tie with Denver and Minnesota, leaving the Nuggets in third place. But Denver won't lose the finale against the remaining pieces of a shattered Memphis team.
If the Nuggets finish first, Minnesota will win a two-way tiebreaker with Oklahoma City for second place. Both teams are tied and he probably has at least one difficult game left. Minnesota plays Phoenix on Sunday, and Oklahoma City plays Milwaukee at home on Friday. I expect the other opponents (Atlanta for the Wolves, Dallas for the Thunder) to rest players based on their established playoff positions.
The Clippers' loss to Phoenix means Los Angeles still needs one win or one loss to Dallas to clinch the No. 4 seed. Either way, they will face the Mavs in the first round. The Clips' next opponent is a struggling Utah team, but they still look safe.
