USC star Isaiah Collier is transferring after one season in Los Angeles.
The 6-foot-5 guard declared for the 2024 NBA Draft, via ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
It was basically a foregone conclusion that Collier would move to the NBA at the earliest opportunity before the 2023-24 season began. He was the No. 1 overall player in 247Sports' overall rankings for his 2023 class and was considered a potential pick in the top five of the draft.
Then a year began. USC went from being ranked high in the preseason to finishing with 15 wins and 18 losses, missing out on the NCAA Tournament.
Like the Trojans as a whole, Collier also failed to live up to his high expectations. His production was delayed until mid-January when he suffered a wrist injury that sidelined him for over a month.
The freshman averaged 16.3 points, 4.3 assists and 1.5 steals while shooting 49 percent overall and 33.8 percent from deep.
In a mock draft posted on Jan. 30, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote, “Concerns about Isaiah Collier's shooting and decision-making were widespread in the scouting community before he was ruled out, so this Injury cost Isaiah Collier valuable time.”
“His positional strength, stiffness, ball handling, passing and flashes of confident shot-making are convincing enough for NBA teams to envision him as a rotational asset,” Wasserman said. wrote. “His creation, rim pressure and playmaking are still appealing, but he's still not quite up to the starting point guard role.”
Wasserman also predicted that Collier's ceiling would be a top-10 pick, noting that “teams that think Collier can improve his shot and decision-making” might find him worthy of selection.
Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer outlined the stark dichotomy with Collier. He called Collier “a great ball handler with a strong frame,” but also described him as “a daredevil playmaker who needs to cut down on his reckless mistakes without losing the spirit that makes him dynamic.”
O'Connor added that Collier is “shooting well,” but cautioned that he is “an unproven shooter with shaky mechanics who makes a lot of mistakes from all over the court.”
When a draft prospect first makes the leap to the pros, there is no finished article. Even by that standard, much of Collier's game is theoretical.
His fall from the 2024 draft board increases the likelihood that he will remain in college for another season. He would be able to continue honing his skill set and wouldn't have to leave large amounts of money on the table either, thanks to his new NIL rules.
But losing in the NBA is always a tough ask for a player who is almost certain to be a first-round pick. Staying in college doesn't always help. In Collier's case, he could have fallen further if he didn't make a big enough leap.
Whether he's contributing to an NBA team or training in the NBA G League, his development may ultimately be best served by moving forward now.
