• The most effective players against press, single coverage, zone coverage, etc. are: Here's a look at the top FBS wide receivers throughout their careers in major receiving categories.
• Surprise! Marvin Harrison Jr. Effective regardless of the situation. The top-ranked wide receiver on the PFF Big Board shines in multiple key situations.
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The 2024 NFL Draft is getting closer and closer by the day, and there is never enough data to consider when it comes to evaluating prospects.After focusing on running backsthis article will focus on the top wide receiver prospects in this year's draft and how they performed in key moments.
This article will focus on a number of metrics that are not easily available online. PFF Premium Statistics Because we provide exclusive, detailed breakdowns of production that you won't find anywhere else.
- This analysis includes only FBS wide receivers.
- Yards per route run (YPRR) represents the amount of receiving yards per route run within each specific situation.
- Career receiving yards and touchdowns percentage represents the amount of yards and touchdowns each wide receiver recorded in each specific situation compared to his career total yards and touchdowns.
- Targets per route run is the number of times a wide receiver is targeted on routes run within each specific situation.
- Yards per target is the amount of receiving yards a wide receiver posts each time he is targeted within each specific situation.
- 1DTD rate is the number of passes a wide receiver catches that go for a first down or touchdown per route run within each specific situation.
Overall carrier reception count
Starting with the basics, this is an overview of how each FBS wide receiver performed in metrics covered in all situations throughout their collegiate career.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. has gained clear yards per route run for this class, posting dominant target percentages and elite first down and touchdown efficiency throughout his collegiate career.
- Malik Nabers He's not far behind in career productivity and efficiency per route, but he ranks second in this class in yards per target. Alabama's Jermaine Burton.
- Washington's Roma Odunze — another potential top-10 player in this year's draft — ranks fourth in career receiving yards in this class, and while his YPRR total isn't as strong as Harrison or Nabors, If you think about the circumstances around the total numbers, you'll see that it's better than it seems. , as highlighted In our headcount-adjusted YPRR data study,
Comparison of number of carriers and single coverage
How a wide receiver performs against single coverage simply highlights the player's success rate one-on-one against defensive backs in man coverage. This is especially important for outside wide receivers, who often face single coverage more than those who line up in the slot.
- Oregon's troy franklin not only owns the highest YPRR total in this year's class, but one of the highest scores in recent years among wide receivers with at least 90 targets. He ranks fourth among wide receivers to qualify since 2019. devonta smith (5.95), tee higgins (5.32) and jammer chase (5.25).
- UCF's Javon Baker He has also been outstanding against single coverage at YPRR, serving as the primary outside receiver and leading the team in receiving yards the past two years since transferring. Alabama. Baker's production and efficiency was also reflected in his top-four first down/touchdown rate and yards per target average against single coverage.
- Harrison once again appeared near the top, ranking third in YPRR vs. single coverage in this year's class and accounting for the highest percentage of receiving production vs. single coverage (57.6%).
Relationship between number of carriers and zone coverage
Zone coverage is the most common form of coverage scheme in the NFL as well as college football. Having a solid grasp of zone coverage and knowing how to exploit holes within that coverage are traits that can also be translated when taking a project to the next level.
- Many of the top names are repeated here as YPRR leaders against zone coverage between Harrison, Nabors, and Franklin. north carolina's Devontez Walker He leads the class in YPRR vs. zone, but also has one of the smallest sample sizes of routes run in the group.
- georgia's Rudd McConkie He tied for the best first down/touchdown ratio in this class and was also in the top three in yards and touchdowns against zone coverage. McConkey is projected to thrive as a slot receiver in the NFL, so it's especially encouraging that his production metrics against zone coverage are among the best in this class.
Comparison of carrier numbers and coverage
Reports include defenders playing on the line of scrimmage directly in front of wide receivers, often reaching out to receivers to create legal contact within the first five yards, interfering with the release and making the intended ball. The purpose is to keep it away from the position. root. This section will focus on receivers who have had success against this tactic, as it allows them to come up with targets, yards, and efficiency while getting through contact.
- At 6-foot-7 and 237 pounds, he is the largest wide receiver in this year's draft class. johnny wilson, was unstoppable against media coverage and recorded by far the highest YPRR numbers in the class in these conditions. It was clear that FSU was looking to take advantage of these matchups as they had the best targets per route run.
- Similarly, north carolina's Bryson Nesbitt At 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds, he resisted media coverage by posting the best first down/touchdown ratio in the class, albeit in a small sample size.
- Some of the lightweight wide receivers near top performers in Jamari Thrush and Troy Franklin, both of whom weigh under 190 pounds, have encouraging metrics that support their “sleeper” status in this year's class, as highlighted. Using this, he showed a large amount of work against the press. here.
Career red zone production
Red zone usage and production is often associated with touchdowns, which leads to stronger fantasy performances.
- Success in the red zone should be measured primarily by first down/touchdown ratio. Marvin Harrison Jr. Not only does he lead in yards per route, but he also leads in that regard. He's also targeted at a higher rate in the red zone than any other player in this class, and teams have shown him to be an offensive weapon and the best chance to score a touchdown (understandably so). ) Showed what you were looking at.
- michigan's roman wilson He also had a high success rate in the red zone, posting the second-highest first down/touchdown rate in the class, an impressive success rate despite being just a one-year starter.
Career screen production
Understanding how much screen play a production receiver has, and how much it is used for that matter, can help you better understand what its true strengths tend to be throughout the production. This will help you understand the situation.
- western kentucky's Malachi Corey is a perfect example of a player whose overall performance was aided by screen play, with 36.4% (highest percentage in this class) coming from screens. Screens have a high success rate and are usually an easy way to gain yardage with blockers working in front of receivers, so using this much in this regard could be seen as a red flag when translated to the NFL.
- Malik Nabers Only 12.3% of his receiving yards came from screen passes, so he's a better example of a player who had the most success when utilized on screen passes without relying too much on easy completions. is.
Deep career ball production
Highlighting each FBS wide receiver's usage on deep throws and how often they are used at that point is a good way to highlight key strengths that make them high-value plays for both fantasy and their respective teams.
- LSU's Brian Thomas had the highest YPRR total in this entire class on throws of 20+ yards downfield, ended up with the highest yards per target, and also had the highest first down/touchdown rate in the class. It became. Thomas' root tree shows that he was primarily asked to run these deep routes more than anything else, and in doing so he did so very effectively. It's reassuring to know that you can.
- Alabama's Jermaine Burton He also has great success with deep passes, which is why he leads the entire class in overall yards per target. He is also the only FBS wide receiver in this class with more than half of his total receiving yards coming from passes 20 or more yards downfield. Since moving to Alabama In 2022, just over 26% of Barton's routes were go routes. This is Burton's most popular route.
Late career production
Finally, we'll focus on the receivers who came into play when the team needed them most: crucial late downs. Getting targets in situations like this and coming up clutch to convert on third and fourth downs is where the player's team is most trusted in each situation and who steps up to perform. This could be a positive indicator of the
- To no one's surprise, Harrison Jr. led the way in YPRR with a first down/touchdown on every route run. There are no questions about his production profile at this point, which is why he is considered the top receiver in this draft.
- Malik Nabers , as usual, was just behind Harrison Jr. in YPRR, earning him the second-highest targets per route rate in this class.partially LSUThomas Jr., who relied heavily on Nabers on key downs, became one of the most ineffective receivers in these situations.
