Saturday's 13-game schedule may be lacking in star power, but a card with so many close games could mean big opportunities if played right. We take a look at each contest across three platforms, including a tireless grappler looking to do his best, and a French fighter looking to represent his country's sport. This week's betting lines are from his RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the posting date of this article.
Plays to consider at DraftKings
The breadth of this line is surprising, as I thought watching Billy Quarantillo crush Alexander Hernandez with a second-round KO/TKO would create the perfect blueprint for Jackson. He may not have the athletic ability, but “The Hill” does exactly what his name suggests, staying close to his opponent and draining his gas tank. Hernandez will have his usual athletic advantage, but his above-average power won't be enough if this fight goes to the second round.
Walker could be mercifully called a chaotic grappler, but it might be more accurate to say he's rushing to grab the clinch by any means necessary. “Clean Monster” shows some impressive techniques in the top position, which helps him control his opponents. Łukasz Brzeski is playing completely the wrong game for a heavyweight, trying to outwork his opponent and absorb punishment. Combine this with his 42 percent takedown defense and he'll be on his way to a four-game losing streak.
Dylan Budka comes into this matchup with a wrestling pedigree, but it's hard to be impressed with his Contender Series win. There he showed extreme passivity, scoring just two of seven takedown attempts. It may have been more successful than his opponent, but Chad Hanekom went so deep on the attempt that a better wrestler would definitely have taken advantage of it. Expect Almeida to march on Budka and gain the upper hand in work rate while using his strength advantage to settle this fight if necessary.
Matsumoto promises to be an exciting addition to the bantamweight division. The Brazilian fighter relentlessly pressures his opponent, delivering sharp calf kicks and aiming for takedowns. Dan Argueta would employ a similar strategy, except for the kicking game, but the speed advantage would be so pronounced here that it would likely be difficult for “The Determined” to get within range.
It's not often that a replacement is chosen days after an event, but that was the case after Hayli Araten was absent from this game for unknown reasons. Hugo is a wild puncher with his hands in his pockets. His main goal is to get fighters to the ground and perform tricks that have led to 10 submission wins in professional MMA. This could lead to some interesting scrambles on the ground as Pedro Falcao is showing off his quick transitions, but there's no reason to think he'll be able to keep up the pace in those exchanges at such short notice. .
It's hard to say what would bring Germaine de Randamie back into the cage after a nearly four-year hiatus, but that fact alone makes it hard to pick her over a successful fighter in Dumont. She's still likely the best pure striker in the division, but can “The Iron Lady” prepare for the suffocating attack of Dumont, who has always been great in this division and presses her physicality in the clinch? I doubt it. De Randamie is known for tiring easily during long fights, so she's not expecting a great cardio workout from the soon-to-be 40-year-old fighter.
Plays to Consider in Prize Selection – Critical Strikes
Melissa Dixon OVER 47.5 Important Strike, Piera Rodriguez UNDER 55.5 Important Strike, Ignacio Bahamondes OVER 49.5 Important Strike
Given the low strike total here, the linemakers seem to think this will either be a grappling-heavy fight or someone will take an early nap. I think both of these scenarios are unlikely. Because in the first round of her UFC debut against Irina Alekseeva, Dixon used her jab to land 23 significant strikes before “Russian Ronda” began forcing a grappling exchange. . Nora Cornole is a Muay Thai specialist, so there shouldn't be anything like that here. Cornole is a finisher on the regional scene, but he couldn't stop Joselyn Edwards and I'm not very confident he can find a consistent stop at this level.
While reviewing the upcoming match, I had an unwanted flashback to the Cynthia Calvillo vs. Pearl Gonzalez match. That's when the “Princess of Chi-Town” kept trying to take down the superior grappler, and both were locked in the cage for the better part of 15 minutes. Calviglio has recently gotten into boxing, and Rodriguez is a dedicated grappler in this fight. I expect fights below this line to be slow to develop, which should make up for the lack of action here.
The logic built into the line between Bahamondes and Christos Giagos seems to be that Giagos has no choice but to wrestle. Regardless, the Chilean has erased this total in four of his five UFC fights, missing the mark by less than seven strikes in his last fight. Although Giagos is a grappler by trade, he isn't afraid to try his hand at boxing and rely on his power, especially early in a fight. This should leave enough room for Bahamondes to rack up significant attacks even if he is forced to grapple later on.
Plays to consider when choosing prizes – Fight Time
Alex Morono has played over 12.5 minutes, Charlie Campbell has played over 6.5 minutes, and Brendan Allen has played under 14.75 minutes.
This section begins with another confusing line. Neither Morono nor Court McGee are great finishers, but both are legendarily tough, with just six finishes in a total of 65 professional MMA bouts. Both have the ability to deliver a knockout punch, but the data clearly favors the decision here, making this a great prop to throw into a parlay.
Trevor Peake gained attention in the MMA world as a whirlwind finisher on the regional scene, but his shots look so easy to come that it's hard to believe they'll materialize against a skilled opponent. He'll land some wild strikes and might even throw in a takedown or two, but Campbell has good distance judgment and should be able to protect himself from high waves.
At first glance, it might seem like Allen's inability to finish this fight would put a damper on the chances of a showdown, but he forced Chris Curtis into action from the opening bell, delivering five intense rounds. It will lead to a fight back. Round. This means there are plenty of opportunities for one man to run for the shot, and even though Allen wasn't able to do so the first time these two met in 2021. You can't ignore it completely.
Bets to consider
Charriere has the speed, power and offensive versatility to be a dangerous finisher, and his three consecutive knockouts could be a sign that he's coming into his own. Jose Mariscal shows off his toughness too often, and this is another game where the athleticism gap is evident, so it's hard to see if he can survive against such an explosive striker. Please I can't bet.
For another perspective on UFC betting, read here. UFC Vegas 90 Best Bets For this weekend. For the latest information, UFC oddsHead to RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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