What the stats say about the NFL's new kickoff
18 hours ago
NFL kickoffs have evolved in several ways Over the past 30 years. Ahead of the 2024 season, NFL clubs have approved significant changes to kickoff rules to increase return rates, reduce player speed and high-speed collisions.
here is the video New format description:
NFL Football Operations' data analysis team has spent the offseason analyzing the potential impact of this rule. Part of the analysis was extracted from the XFL data and its similar kickoff format.
Here are some things we can look forward to during the 2024 season.
- More returns are possible. Because kickers are encouraged to kick the ball into the landing zone between the goal line and the 20-yard line, special teams coaches estimate that 50 to 60 percent of kickoffs are returned. By comparison, a record-low 22% of kickoffs were returned during the 2023 season.
- Improved field position for returning teams. The average XFL field position on return is 29.1 yard lines and varies based on several factors outlined in the table below. As a result, NFL drives are expected to start closer to the 30-yard line than the old 25-yard line.
- Uncertainty. In 2023, 88% of drives after kickoff started between the 21 and 30 yard lines. The new format expects variation on both sides of that interval. During the 2023 XFL season, 30% of drives started at or above the 31-yard line, and 17% of drives started inside the 20-yard line.
It is also expected that new strategies for where kickers should aim their kicks will permeate play.
This table provides an overview of the returning team's field position upon kickoff return. Where the kickoff lands he is divided into five groups.
- 16-20 yard line
- 11-15 yard line
- 6-10 yard line
- 1-5 yard line
- The returned kick lands in the end zone.
The text on the right shows the mean and median field positions and the percentage of time within each category that the starting field position is within the 30-yard line. The 30-yard line is an important marker for both teams because it is where the ball will be placed for kicks that land in the end zone.
The deeper the ball is kicked, the worse the receiving team's field position is. The kickoff, which was returned after landing in the end zone, had a midfield position at the 23-yard line. The return from further away from the end zone gave him better starting field position. For example, the median starting field position for kicks that landed between the 16 and 20 yard lines was the 29 yard line.
For most yard line groups, the average field position is greater than the median. However, this average is skewed by his long kickoff returns. For kickoffs that landed between the 1 and 5-yard lines, the median starting field position was the 26-yard line, but six kickoff returns that went beyond midfield skewed the average and jumped to the 28.7-yard line. Ta.
Why is this important? When debating whether or not the returning team should return a kick that lands near the end zone, the choice is based on the average starting field position, which is more favorable to the returning team than the median field position. may be affected.
Finally, the kicker cannot kick the ball too deep. As a result, a touchback on a kick in the end zone would be on his 30-yard line, but in 2023 he would be on his 25-yard line.
With the new kickoff and this data incentive, kickers are expected to aim kicks to the back of the landing zone and force returns. Ideally for the kicking team, this would cause him to tackle the returner short of the 30-yard line.
