Please take a look UFC picks Our favorite longshots from UFC Las Vegas 93 UFC Prop Bets Saturday, June 15th.
UFC Vegas 93 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire event can be watched on ESPN2 and ESPN+ starting at 7pm ET (4pm PST).
It's the deepest and most star-studded card, but the MMA Prop Squad is finding value in tonight's UFC props.
Each episode of MMA Prop Squad features several bets selected by our team of prop betting enthusiasts, who have earned +16.8 units per bet and an ROI of +4.2% over their two-year run.
As with any form of gambling, always bet within your ability. This guideline is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Props often offer attractive odds, but they are converted into cash much less frequently than standard bets. Also, prop odds can vary significantly from sportsbook to sportsbook, so be sure to shop around for the best price.
(UFC Vegas 93 odds as of Saturday afternoon via FanDuel. Use Caesars promo code to bet on UFC Vegas 93.)
UFC Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Dan Tom: Hot Round for Nate Maness
He is a contributor to The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast.
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 9:25 p.m. ET
For this week’s MMA Prop Squad post, I decided to target the “hot round” of the preliminary card attraction between Nate Maness (-650) and Jimmy Flick (+460).
When I refer to the term “hot round,” I am usually referring to a round where a particular party has a very high chance of winning.
In this case, I'm faced with one of my favorite fight dynamics – a first-round finisher of questionable staying power versus a durable fighter who has proven he can withstand some serious storms.
Not only has Manes shown he can return from a broken jaw early in an already struggling game, but Flick has a notorious history of fading as the first five minutes of a match progress.
Add in the fact that nearly half of Maness' finishes have come in the second round and I have no choice but to place a big plus bet on him as a 6-1 favorite to win.
Technically, you could split your units with Manes and have him win both the second and third rounds and make a profit (I sprinkled a little on the third-round flyers), but Flick has only seen the third frame seven times out of his 25 matches, so plan accordingly.
Pick: Nate Maness on Rune 2 (+430 on FanDuel).
Clint McLean: Miles Johns replaces guard
He is a contributor to The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast.
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 11:55 p.m. ET
Douglas Silva de Andrade is a UFC veteran who has built a career in which he has been more explosive and durable than his opponents, but he is also now 38 years old and showing signs of time showing.
In his last fight, Silva de Andrade was beaten down by Cody Stamann and left in a limp state, something no UFC fighter should have on their resume.
Silva de Andrade (+122) will face Myles Johns (-145), a fighter I’ve faced off against many times, who has had his heart issues repaired and is in better shape than ever.
I think this is a generational fight. Johns can do damage to an aging Silva de Andrade, and if Stamann can rock you, Miles can totally beat you.
(Multiple sportsbooks are offering “Johns to win by KO/TKO” at +500, but be sure to look for books that also include disqualification as a win condition. For example, ESPN BET and DraftKings are offering “Johns to win by KO/TKO/DQ” at +500.)
pick: Miles Johns wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+500 on ESPN BET)
Tony Sartori: Main Event KO Option #1
Action Network Contributor
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 12:25 a.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main event is a flyweight bout between Alex Perez (+185) and Tatsuro Taira (-225). I agree that Taira is favored, but I think he's -200 too long. The value of this bout is in the #5 ranked contender in the division.
Sure, Perez has lost three of his last four fights, but look at who those losses were against.
- Mohammed Mokaev: UFC Ranking #6 Contender
- Alexandre Pantoja: Current UFC champion
- Deiveson Figueiredo: One of the greatest flyweights of all time
Meanwhile, his win (and most recent bout) was a knockout over Matheus Nicolau, who is currently ranked No. 8. All of those bouts, at least for now, have come against opponents of a higher level than Taira.
“Sure, Taira is 15-0, but he hasn't fought anywhere near that level at the flyweight level. This is a big step up for Taira, and we're going to keep it simple.”
If he turns out to be as good as most people expect him to be, he'll likely win again, but at the same time, his momentum could easily be halted by a proven title contender in the 125-pound division.
Taira may be a title contender, but he's not yet a title contender. That's why this match is so valuable. Proven +168 guy. On top of that, Perez has one-touch power (sorry Nicolau).
Taira is undefeated but was knocked down by Edgar Chailes, and if Chailes can confuse Taira, Perez can certainly knock him out.
Pick: Alex Perez wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+440 on FanDuel)
Liam Heslin: Main Event KO Option #2
Contributor to The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 12:25 a.m. ET
Above, my colleague Tony Sartori made a compelling case that Alex Perez will win by knockout in the main event.
Now, I predict that his opponent, Tatsuro Taira, will win by KO.
Simply put, at +850, there is too much value in a fighter with underrated KO equity in this main event.
Sportsbooks are unsure of exactly whether Taira will be able to stop the fight with strikes, with oddsmakers betting that his takedown ability and control game will land him a submission (+138 odds), but overlooking the ground-and-pound potential the Japanese fighter will bring to the cage.
Taira's underrated striking and power are on display on the mat, and Perez will not be easy to beat (his only knockout loss came to Joseph Benavidez in 2018), but at 32 years old, he is creeping towards the age where his long-tested chin will start to weaken.
More importantly, some good sportsbooks and overseas bookmakers have short odds of +525 on this prop bet, so you can also get a fantastic offer of +850 via BetRivers.
Maybe one day the sportsbooks will accurately price Taira’s KO equity, but until then I’ll stay on that train until they wise up.
Pick: Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+850 on BetRivers)
