• Seattle Seahawks Tight End Noah FantHe has yet to break out as a top-12 fantasy option at his position, but his developing data profile suggests he could be ready to step up with contributing tight ends Colby Parkinson (69 targets in 2022-2023) and Will Dissly (57 targets in 2022-2023) now gone.
• Green Bay Packers Tight End Luke Musgrave: He offers fantasy managers a TE1 receiving profile despite facing stiff internal competition. As a 6-foot-6, 253-pound 2023 rookie, Musgrave has proven himself to be a reliable first-round lead target.
• Get an early start on fantasy football: use PFF Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator Get ready for your live draft by creating a real live mock draft simulation.
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
It is very hard to find weekly contributors at the tight end position, and previous top 12 finishes come at a higher average draft position (ADP) cost the following year. Identifying potential top 12 breakout tight ends allows fantasy managers to be aggressive in drafting wide receivers, quarterbacks and running backs in the middle rounds, giving them a scoring advantage over opponents who spend unfairly high draft capital on mid-level tight end contributors.
Below, we look at three NFL tight ends who are competing for the top 12 at their position after finishing outside the TE1 2023 ranks in both half-point per reception (half-PPR) and PPR scoring formats.
Te Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks Sixth year tight end Noah Fant With a passing-heavy, fantasy-friendly role and two years of pass-catching success, he's primed for a breakout TE1 season. His PFF offensive grade of 64.6 ranks 19th. Of the 33 NFL tight ends who have played at least 535 offensive snaps..
Seattle's new head coach, Mike McDonald, Baltimore Ravens Five tight ends Mark AndrewsFant played six seasons in the NFL, most recently as the team's defensive coordinator. Andrews' success as a pass-catching weapon has undoubtedly influenced McDonald. McDonald was forced to adapt strategies to counter Andrews in practice every day while he was Baltimore's linebackers coach from 2018-2020. Andrews' 39.6% block rate and 60.0% receiving snap rate over the past two years are nearly identical to Fant's 41.4% and 58.6% rates, respectively, in 2022-2023 with Seattle. Andrews' 26.8% receiving snap rate and 2.97 YPRR on play-action dropbacks are positive signs for the less-used but more successful Fant's 20.6% and 3.20 yardage rates, respectively. Fant's success should catch McDonald's eye.
Fant's prospects are also boosted by Seattle's new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb. Grubb served as Washington's assistant head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2022-2023, leading the 2023 team to a College Football Playoff championship. During Grubb's tenure, Washington tight ends have produced the seventh-most first-lead targets (131), 25th-highest deep target rate (12.2%) and two top-four marks in expected points added per play (0.427) and positive EPA rate (55.4%). Among the 70 Power Five teams during that period.
Grubb's regular season offense had the third-most regular season pass attempts (965) Among the 70 power teams over the past two seasonsIncluding the playoffs, the unit has averaged the 13th-most plays per drive (6.5), which will help protect Seattle's passing volume even if the defensive-minded McDonald occasionally tells the Gloves to take a run-heavy approach.
Fant has yet to break out as a top-12 fantasy option at his position, but his developing data profile suggests he's ready to contribute at tight end. Colby Parkinson (Goal 69 for 2022-2023) Will Dissly (57 targets in 2022-2023) are no longer on the team. Parkinson's PFF receiving grade of 60.7 and Dissly's PFF receiving grade of 68.2 are tied for 38th and 23rd, respectively. Of the 48 NFL tight ends with at least 55 targets..
Here are Fant's 2022-2023 receiving stats among the 31 NFL tight ends who received at least 99 targets during that span:
| NFL TE Receiver | Noah Fant |
| PFF Receiving Grade | 67.5 (T-No.20) |
| Target Rate | 15.5% (26th place) |
| YPRR | 1.32(No. 21) |
| Capture Rate | 77.6% (6th place) |
| Catchy Pass Catch Rate | 95.4% (2nd place) |
| Drop Rate | 2.3% (1st place) |
| Deep Target Rate | 8.4% (11th place) |
| NFL Passing Rating | 110.7 (No. 6) |
| point | 7.2 (19th) |
| Yards after catch/rec | 5.0 (13th) |
| Yard/Wreck | 11.0 (T-No.11) |
| Explosive pass play rate | 25.3% (9th place) |
Fant is poised to make a big splash in the TE1 fantasy football season.
Te Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers Second year tight end Luke Musgrave Despite facing stiff internal competition, he offers fantasy managers a TE1 receiving profile. As a 6'6″, 253 lb. 2023 rookie, Musgrave has proven himself a reliable first-receive target, showcasing efficient field-stretching ability, sure handles and talent after the catch to thrive in head coach Matt LaFleur's well-schemed offense. His 69.6 PFF receiving grade is 17th best. Of the 31 NFL tight ends with at least 45 targets.
Musgrave's 2023 recruit classmate and teammate Tucker Craft He earned a 65.1 PFF receiving grade, but won't be able to meaningfully challenge for Musgrave's starting spot after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ligament. Pectoral muscle He gained muscle in May. LaFleur said in offering Kraft's projected return date: state Kraft “will be out until training camp … and hopefully back by training camp, if not sooner,” while Musgrave continues to hone his craft.
Of 16 NFL rookie tight ends who received at least 25 first-lead targets in their rookie seasons from 2020-2023Musgrave ranks or is tied for the top six in catch percentage (72.2%), average depth of target (aDot, 10.3), receiving yards (12.5) and explosive pass play rate (26.9%).
One of 18 NFL rookie tight ends who received at least 25 targets in their rookie season from 2020-2023.Musgrave ranks eighth in target rate (17.6%), seventh in aDot (7.4), yards per reception (10.4), explosive pass play rate (20.0%), sixth in YPRR (1.41), fifth in yards after the catch per reception (5.1), fourth in catch rate (76.9%), catchable pass catch rate (95.2%), drop rate (2.4%) and second in deep target rate (15.4%).
“Best Underdog Fantasy Values from Rounds 11 to 20“LaFleur's tactics concentrate targets in the middle of the field due to the increased mobility of pass-catching in the open field. This tactic produces a higher percentage of explosive passing plays than targets thrown to the perimeter of the field,” says Hayden Winks. 2019 Rotoworld Surveya notable fantasy points increase begins within 5 yards downfield, with targets thrown between the painted numbers averaging around 1.75 PPR points per target, while targets thrown on the boundary plateau briefly at 1.50 PPR points if thrown 0-10 yards downfield.
Among the 17 NFL rookie tight ends with 10 or more rookie season targets that were thrown at least five yards downfield from 2020-2023 in painted numbers;Musgrave ranks ninth in explosive pass play percentage (25.0%), seventh in missed tackles per reception (0.13) and yards per reception (13.3), fourth in aDot (11.4) and third in yards after the catch per reception (5.0).
Musgrave gives fantasy managers a TE1 receiving profile with the potential to make the jump into the top-12.
Te Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins Tight End Jonnu Smith Thanks to his explosive skill set, offensive environment and dream defensive matchups, Smith has quietly been a TE1 all season. Smith's PFF offensive grade of 63.5 is 24th. Of the 33 NFL tight ends who have played at least 535 offensive snaps..
“Best Underdog Fantasy Values from Rounds 11 to 20“Smith is a perfect fit for Miami head coach Mike McDaniel's center field passing attack.”Among 13 NFL tight ends who caught 12 or more passes of 10 or more yards downfield between painted numbersSmith ranks second and first, respectively, in yards per reception (21.4) and yards after the catch per reception (9.0), and he has turned all five of his eligible receptions into explosive gains of 15 yards or more.
He had a fantastic season at age 28, finishing tied for 11th in yards per route run (1.55), ninth in explosive pass play rate (24.0%), seventh in yards per reception (11.6), third in missed tackles per reception (0.28), first in yards after the catch per reception (7.3), and tied for 11th in yards per route run (1.55). Of the 36 NFL tight ends with at least 40 targets.
Smith competed for a spot as Miami's starter after Atlanta Falcons' No. 1 tight end Kyle Pitts72.7 PFF receiving grade is 10th Of the 33 NFL tight ends who have played at least 535 offensive snaps..
Miami's schedule for weeks 1-4 includes: Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks New, discreet safety group, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans A linebacker who can knock down. Of the 63 NFL linebackers who have played at least 50 tight end coverage snaps,Jacksonville linebacker Devin Lloyd (2.48 and 6.3%) and Foyeshade Oluokun (91.7%) rank in the bottom six in yards per coverage snap allowed, explosive pass plays allowed and catch rate, respectively. Kenneth Murray Jr. They rank in the bottom eight in both catch percentage allowed (88.9%) and explosive pass play percentage allowed (6.0%). Rayshawn Jenkins and K'Von Wallace Likewise, they rank in the bottom seventh in target rate (27.4% and 27.3%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (2.01 and 2.05), respectively. One of 68 NFL safeties to play at least 60 tight end coverage snaps.Jenkins and Tennessee safety Amani Hooker also rank in the bottom six (5.7% and 4.6%), respectively, in explosive pass play rate allowed.
Miami's schedule is loaded with winnable matchups from start to finish, but the addition of three additional units makes this roster arguably the most tight end-friendly NFL schedule. Arizona Cardinals Linebacker Kizily White They're tied for eighth in explosive pass plays allowed (5.9%) but rank bottom third in target rate (33.3%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (2.61). Los Angeles Rams You can't hide your linebackers anymore. Christian Rozeboom Free agent signee Camren Curl and third-round draft pick rookie Camren Kinchens are currently playing behind him. Within each qualifying position groupRoséboom ranks in the bottom 12th in target rate (29.6%), yards allowed per coverage snap (2.57) and explosive pass plays allowed (5.6%), while Curl ranks 10th-worst in target rate (23.7%). Of the 74 Power Five safeties who played at least 45 tight end coverage snaps,Kinchens’ category rate of 85.7% is tied for seventh-worst.
Houston Texans Linebacker Henry Toto and Christian Harris They form the league's worst 4-3 outside linebacker-coverage duo. To'o To'o ranks last in catch percentage allowed (100.0%), yards allowed per coverage snap (3.33) and explosive pass play percentage allowed (10.0%). Harris is in the bottom five in the latter two categories (2.50 and 7.3%) and 11th-worst in target percentage (27.1%).
Smith’s talent profile and offensive environment alone should produce TE1 best ball results frequently, but his defensive matchups in 2024 should make him a TE1 mainstay in at least 10 redrafts.
