Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s ‘Daily Ramblings’.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber
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1. The real story in Vancouver’s Game 6 series clincher was the goalies. Arturs Silovs was flawless in net, stopping all 28 shots he faced to become the youngest goalie in Canucks history (age 23) to post a shutout. Silovs was playing in just his third career playoff game. Juuse Saros had an impressive game himself, stopping 28 of 29 shots he faced. After a disastrous third period and overtime in Game 4, Saros was his best in Games 5 and 6 in allowing just one goal in each game.
The injury to Thatcher Demko after Game 1 had Canucks fans panicking, while the minor injury to backup Casey DeSmith raised the temperature even more. Silovs has just nine games of regular-season NHL experience, but he has some recent big-game experience in leading Latvia to a bronze medal in last year’s World Hockey Championship while being named tournament MVP. Unexpected heroes can appear from the playoffs, and this season Silovs is emerging as one of those guys. (may4)
2. It’s important to determine whether playoff success can lead to fantasy success the following season and beyond, because that’s sometimes not the case. DeSmith is a UFA after the season, so it’s entirely possible that Silovs moves into the backup role in Vancouver next season. His AHL numbers (2.74 GAA, .907 SV%) did regress a little bit from last season, but he is demonstrating that he has what it takes to stick in the NHL. With Demko now an injury risk with games missed both this season and last, the Canucks have to seriously think about giving him more nights off. Spending big money on a backup goalie isn’t an option if the Canucks are to stay competitive, so Silovs’ emergence in these playoffs couldn’t come at a better time. (may4)
3. The coaches in that Game 6 (Rick Tocchet and Andrew Brunette) were two of the three finalists for the Jack Adams Trophy for top coach. In fairness to Rick Bowness, whose Jets team made vast improvements this season, I think Tocchet and Brunette should be the top two candidates. Tocchet has not only met the Canucks’ goal of making the playoffs this season, he also had them in the mix for the Presidents’ Trophy. Meanwhile, Brunette has taken a rather ordinary (on paper) Predators group into the playoffs where they seem to buy into his system. I’ve seen very few passengers on this Nashville roster during their first-round series. Kudos to them on a hard-fought series.
An argument could be made for Kris Knoblauch to be a Jack Adams finalist. The Oilers’ season seemed to completely turn around when he was hired as head coach. The counterargument to that could be that the Oilers finally started to perform as expected after their woeful start, considering that they were a preseason favorite to win the Stanley Cup. (may4)
4. Who do I like to win the Canucks/Oilers series? I’ll post my pick with the other writers on Sunday, as I haven’t completely made up my mind as I write this. The Canucks may have a psychological edge, having won all four games against the Oilers this season. Three of those wins were early in the season before the Oilers made their coaching change, and it’s understood that the Oilers are a different team now. In addition, the Oilers will have a bit more rest while we don’t really know when Demko will return and how Silovs will hold up against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and company. (may4)
5. Since being acquired by Vegas, Noah Hanifin has 12 points in 19 regular-season games and five points in six playoff games. He was also installed on the top power play late in the season and has remained in that role through the playoffs, while both Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo have manned the second unit. That’s shown in the point totals for these defensemen in the playoffs. Three of Hanifin’s points during the playoffs have been with the man advantage, while Pietrangelo has just one total point in the series and Theodore has yet to register a single point in the series.
Although things could change, Hanifin on the Golden Knights’ top power play could be something to remember for next season’s drafts. Vegas is all about buying the shiny new toy, which is why they signed Pietrangelo in the first place a few years ago. Now it’s Hanifin, whose eight-year contract with a cap hit of over $7 million kicks in next season, which could mean his days of sub-50% power-play usage could be over. In other words, we could see Hanifin reach a whole new level in Vegas. Dobber, if you’re reading this, can you adjust his upside to beyond 55 points? (may4)
6. Since returning from a lacerated spleen (just in time for the playoffs!), Mark Stone has scored three goals in six games. Stone is still an effective player, but he has clearly earned the title of Band-Aid Boy. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 45 games played, making him a high-risk option in fantasy leagues. When projecting his stats for next season, you need to knock off at least 20 games. That’s just because he still might be dealing with a back ailment, while another extended LTIR stay for whatever is also a factor. (may4)
7. Remember when Joe Pavelski was an exceptional playoff performer? Yeah. He’s been held without a point after the first six games of the Stars-Golden Knights – Game 7 today. It’s a small sample against one team, but maybe we’re finally starting to see a decline from the 39-year-old Pavelski. His scoring total fell from 77 points last season to 67 points this season. He’s also a UFA at the end of the season, so it will be interesting to see whether Dallas prioritizes re-signing him over someone like Matt Duchene or Chris Tanev. (may4)
8. Even though the Rangers finished three points ahead of the Hurricanes, my gut tells me that Carolina should be viewed as the slight favorite in this series. That being said, I’m having a hard time determining where each team would have a strong advantage over the other. Maybe the Rangers have a bit more star power, but Carolina was already a high-octane system before loading up at the trade deadline with Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov.
That’s the great thing about this season, where there doesn’t seem to be any clear-cut favorite. After the Rangers and Hurricanes seemed to have little trouble with their first-round opponents, they appear to be a great match for each other. Let’s go seven games in this one, shall we? (may3)
9. The NHL has been announcing its three finalists for each major award. On Thursday, the Masterton Trophy finalists were revealed: Oliver Kylington, Frederik Andersen, and Connor Ingram. These three are all deserving finalists, given the challenges they have faced. I won’t focus on what those challenges were, who should win, or if anyone excluded faced bigger challenges. Instead, I’ll discuss the on-ice accomplishments of the two goalies this season. Both were effective for fantasy teams at times, but for different reasons.
Andersen was a prime example of how stashing a player on IR can be extremely beneficial. He played in just six games before being sidelined with a blood-clotting issue, which forced him out of the lineup until March. If you were able to hold onto him for that long or add him from the waiver wire, you were handsomely rewarded – perhaps even during your fantasy playoffs. After his return, Andersen posted a 9-1-0 record with a 1.30 GAA and .951 SV%. He allowed over two goals in a game just once over the 10-game span following his return.
Given Andersen’s success following his return and in the playoffs (4-0-1, 2.25 GAA, .912 SV% so far), Andersen’s stock for next season is on the rise. With another season under contract in Carolina, Andersen should be in the discussion as a top-10 goalie in next season’s fantasy drafts. Pyotr Kochetkov could force the workload into more of a timeshare, although a decreased workload might be beneficial for the 34-year-old Andersen anyway. His days as a 60+ game starter in Toronto have passed. A more reasonable expectation might be 50 games. (may3)
10. Meanwhile, Ingram was a Zero G waiver-wire target during the season. Drafted in just 3 percent of Yahoo leagues, Ingram rose to prominence during the middle of the season, posting five shutouts between November 25 and January 13. He finished tied with three other goalies for the league lead in shutouts with 6 SO. Ingram couldn’t maintain his momentum of a strong first half, finishing with a 3.00+ GAA and 41% quality start percentage during the second half. He at least played well enough to wrestle the starting job away from Karel Vejmelka, which made him rosterable in many 2+ goalie formats.
The new ownership for the now-Utah franchise could bolster the team with player depth and other resources that weren’t available to them in Arizona. A new-look roster, particularly on defense where most players are set to become UFAs or RFAs, could benefit Ingram and Vejmelka next season. Keep an eye on what roster moves the Utah hockey club makes during the offseason. (may3)
11. The finalists for the Norris Trophy were announced on Wednesday and without much surprise, they are Roman Josi, Quinn Hughes, and Cale Makar. It is quite the trio of defencemen who all have some argument to being the winner: Josi was probably the best defenceman in the league after the Christmas break, Makar led the league in points per game by a blue liner, and Hughes was the best defenceman up until Christmas and was still excellent thereafter.
Just my two cents but Hughes should win this. He was a huge reason for Vancouver’s turnaround in the regular season and though his best hockey was the first 30 games of the yea, the team controlled 59% of both expected goals and actual goals at 5-on-5 with him on the ice after the Christmas break. Just a superlative season from start to finish. (may2)
12. This year’s Calder finalists are Connor Bedard, Brock Faber and Luke Hughes. All three are deserving of the recognition here, and there were many very deserving candidates including Pyotr Kochetkov, Connor Zary, and others.
Next seasons for each are going to be fun to watch. Connor Bedard might have a little more support on offence with a healthy Taylor Hall, and maybe one or two of Lukas Reichel, Oliver Moore or Frank Nazar making the team full-time next year. Bedard scored at a 74-point clip this past year, and his best comparable at this point might actually be Auston Matthews and not Connor McDavid. Matthews put up 69 points in his rookie season, before putting up seven straight point-per-game seasons between then and now, culminating in his recent 69-goal campaign. McDavid had an 87-point-pace in his first year, and it was much more assist heavy than Matthews. With Bedard’s shot, we have to think that his goal to assist ratio is going to get closer to even over the next few years, with a line next year that might look something like 35G, 45A, and 80 Pts in a full season. (may1)
13. For Hughes and Faber, the uncertainty of them retaining top power play duties all season is what confounds any projections for them. They both posted 47-point seasons that saw multiple defencemen from their teams go down with long-term injuries. The Devils lost Dougie Hamilton early and dealt with many injuries to the rest of the D-core, also seeing Simon Nemec get some runs as well. Hamilton, Hughes, and Nemec could all be viable top-power play options in future years, so there’s no guarantee that Luke gets the top unit time with his brother Jack Hughes.
In Minnesota, the Wild lost Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon with severe injuries. Faber’s competition for power play time evaporated by mid-season, as Spurgeon missed the second half of the year, and Calen Addison was shipped to San Jose. With both Faber and Spurgeon healthy for next year (on top of whoever else may be added) it’s also unclear how much opportunity Faber will receive as a sophomore.
Odds are that Hughes will score more points by virtue of being a more offence-focused defenceman, but Faber having less competition works in his favour as well. The sophomore slump is a real thing, but a floor of 40 points is a safe expectation of these two for us to take into drafts next fall. (may1)
14. The finalists for the Vezina Trophy were announced on Monday. In no particular order, Vancouver’s Thatcher Demko, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck, and Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky were all voted as the top-3 goalies this season. The winner will be announced at the NHL Awards at the end of June.
This is Demko’s first time finishing in the top-3 for the goalie of the year and he’s been tremendous basically since returning from injury in February of 2023.
Connor Hellebuyck is a Vezina finalist for the fourth time in his career and his second time in three years, having won it in 2019-20.
Sergei Bobrovsky won the trophy twice with Columbus – 2012-13 and 2016-17 – though those were the only times he finished inside the top-6 for Vezina voting, let alone top-3. It was a nice rebound year from him after a subpar regular season (but great postseason) last year. (Apr30)
15. The one series that I was really wrong about was the Colorado/Winnipeg series. I thought this one would go seven games with an underrated Winnipeg team pulling it out with Connor Hellebuyck coming up huge in net. Instead, the Jets crashed in five games, and Hellebuyck had a series to forget (in spite of him saying otherwise). Hellebuyck allowed at least four goals in each of the five games, finishing the series with a very un-Vezina-like 5.01 GAA and .870 SV%.
On one hand, I wouldn’t put much stock into this fantasy-wise, as this was a five-game stretch against one opponent. That opponent had two of the league’s top-10 point getters in Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, as well as 90-point scoring defenseman Cale Makar. Goals-against average in particular is a function of the defensive play of the team in front of him, so from a pure hockey standpoint I’m not suggesting the poor numbers are all Hellebuyck’s fault. I didn’t watch a ton of this series, but it sounds like the Jets got pulled away from their structured approach and were drawn into a run-and-gun by the Avalanche.
On the other hand, stay away from picking Hellebuyck too early in next season’s drafts. I’m not suggesting Hellebuyck will be a bust, but goalies are usually less of a sure thing than players. Short stretches of bad play that turn into major slumps can really hurt your team. He will probably be a top-5 drafted goalie again, as I don’t see any other reason to be convinced otherwise. For example, I would draft him ahead of someone like Thatcher Demko or Ilya Sorokin. (may3)
16. A series I was a little bit wrong about was the Edmonton/Los Angeles series. I picked Edmonton like just about everyone else, but I thought the Kings would put up a bit more of a fight and take the series to seven games. There’s lots of blame to go around with the Kings, particularly with how Cam Talbot did not come through for them. Yet Pierre-Luc Dubois stands out as a player who followed up a bust-level regular season with an even more disappointing postseason (1 PT in 5 GP).
The fact that a buyout is even being brought up as a possibility after just one season explains how poorly PLD’s tenure in LA has gone after just one season. Yet depending on when the Stanley Cup is awarded, he may qualify for a 1/3 buyout, which means considerable savings for the Kings if they go that route because of when he turns 26. Crazy talk, or is it?
From a pure hockey standpoint, the Kings might want to give him at least one more season before resorting to drastic measures. Sometimes a player needs at least one season to adjust to new surroundings. In addition, a new coach could be a better fit for him. There’s also the sunk cost theory, where the Kings gave up considerable assets (Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, 2024 2nd-round pick) to acquire him, so they might want to see this through. Dubois’ lack of production resulted in a demotion to the fourth line, but an injury could very easily bump him up to the top of the lineup next season. All in all, I’m not drafting him as a sleeper unless it’s a very late one, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounces back in some way. (may3)
17. This is a fascinating summer coming for Los Angeles, who have nearly $21M in cap space, per Cap Friendly. They have Matt Roy as a free agent, and he’ll probably be replaced by Brandt Clarke, with no goalies signed and Viktor Arvidsson likely testing the free agent waters elsewhere. They also have Jordan Spence, Quinton Byfield, Carl Grundstrom, Arthur Kaliyev, and Blake Lizotte as restricted free agents. Signing two goalies, and a long-term extension from Byfield, will probably eat 50-60% of the team’s available cap space. Short-term contracts for the rest of their RFAs will come close to filling what’s left of the cap space. They are short on draft capital, short on cap space, and this team is clearly not in the Colorado-Dallas-Edmonton tier in the West right now. Interesting offseason, indeed. (may2)
18. With the fantasy hockey offseason here, my review of the 16 non-playoff teams is underway. We have gone over the seasons of the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, and the Columbus Blue Jackets. Next up is the Montreal Canadiens. Let’s look at what went wrong, what went right, and where they go from here. This is all through a fantasy lens, of course.
As the resident Montreal fan watching this rebuild, and knowing a playoff was not in the cards, there was a list of things fans wanted from this season:
A lot of that actually happened. (may2)
19. Of course, the big one in that list above is Slafkovský. There was a lot of consternation around his first overall selection (including from me), but he took a big step forward with 20 goals, 30 assists, 14 power play points, 55 penalty minutes, and both 152 shots and hits. That is a stellar multi-cat season in and of itself, and he didn’t turn 20 years old until the end of March.
Here are the improvements Slafkovský made:
- Even strength goals/60 up 62%.
- Even strength assists/60 up 47%.
- Even strength shot attempts/60 up 10%.
- Even strength individual expected goals/60 up 67%.
- Carry-ins on zone entries from 34.6% to 53.6%.
- Passing for zone entries 13.8% of the time against a team average of 11.8% after not showing up in this stat at all as a rookie.
- Expected goals-for impact sky-rocketed from the 9th percentile to the 87th percentile.
There were significant improvements in several key areas and while some of that can be chalked up to playing three-quarters of his season at 5-on-5 with Caufield and Suzuki, if he was playing poorly, he wouldn’t have stayed on that line for four months. That he received so much top PP time is great for his fantasy value and once he starts shooting more, he’ll really unlock that next level of across-the-board fantasy upside. (may2)
[Follow the link for the full review…]
20. One of my friends asked me if I thought Steven Stamkos was going to retire. To me it seems like a ridiculous notion, but I can see where that discourse has come from. For a player in his mid-30s, who has won two cups, played a lot of hard hockey over the last few years, had a few tough injuries, and made more than he needs to be able to live comfortably for the rest of his life, the question is fair at this point. However, Stamkos is only 34 (on the right end of the “mid-30s” range) and just finished a point-per-game, 40-goal season. There is lots left in the tank, and he either has the freedom to choose where he wants to play, or he has the freedom to ask for whatever contract makes sense for him and the Lightning, and they can run it back one more time for another competitive season.
Odds are that he’s sticking with the Lightning, and I would bet both him and General Manager Julien BriseBois know that, so they can wait and see what the cap situation looks like after taking care of some other business and then fit him in around that. Similar to Thornton signing those one-year deals in San Jose. The team sorted out the rest of their offseason plans, and then gave Thornton whatever was left. (may1)
21. There have been two coach firings since my last Ramblings, with Dave Hokstol out in Seattle, and Dave Quinn out in San Jose. This could be a big deal for the fantasy values of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jared McCann, who were both 60-point players this past year despite only playing 16 minutes a game. If they get the full 20-minute deployment of top-line players, then both of them are pushing 75 points next year. Getting a healthy season from Vince Dunn should make a big difference now. Even still, the Kraken aren’t likely to be a playoff team again soon, as they don’t have the high end talent to make the push, and they don’t have the depth to put up a similar season to what the Kings did this year.
As for the Sharks, there aren’t any delusions of the team making the playoffs next year, which does make the firing of Quinn a little confusing, because he was hired less than two years prior. It begs the question of what do the Sharks’ brass want in a coach then? Maybe someone who plays or develops the kids a little more? As someone who is looking at William Eklund taking another step next year alongside Thomas Bordeleau, and maybe at least one of Calen Addison or Colin Graf turning into a useful fantasy asset.
There are some useful pieces on both teams, so the incoming coaches will have a big effect on many fantasy seasons. (may1)
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Frozen Tools has a new report that generates data from NHL Edge. Useful in the same sense that stats such as pitch speed and exit velocity are used for fantasy baseball. Some more possibilities for deep-dive research on a particular player, especially when comparing one season to another as well as what might lie ahead. Regular-season data only so far – no playoff data.
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Have a good week, folks!
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