The seedings for the 2024 Olympics have been announced. Here is a potential tournament bracket for U.S. women's freestyle wrestling, along with an explanation of how the seeding is determined from John Kozak of FloWrestling.
How are Olympic wrestling seedings determined?
It's important to understand how these seeds were set because they are significantly different from how seeding is determined in the American wrestling system: instead of determining seeding by head-to-head matches and results like in the U.S., United World Wrestling uses ranking points that individual wrestlers earn each year to determine the top eight Olympic seeds.
Wrestlers earn ranking (or seeding) points at World Championships, Continental Championships, or two different ranking series events. Olympic wrestlers are seeded by points. This system encourages the best wrestlers to participate in UWW events.
Seeding can only change if a seeded athlete does not compete in the Olympics.
50 kilograms
Top 8 seeds
No. 1 Yui Susaki (JPN)
2nd Place: Otgonjargal Dolgojav (MGL)
3. Feng Ziqi (China)
4th place: Evin Demirhan (Türkiye)
No.5 Allison Cardozo Ray (COL)
6. Sarah Hildebrand (USA)
No. 7 Marija Stadnik (AZE)
No. 8 Oksana Ryvach (UKR)
No seed
Ibtisem Doudou (ALG)
Yusneiris Guzman Lopez (CUB)
Nada Mohammed (Egypt)
Anastasia Breivas (Germany)
Vinesh (India)
Gabija Dirite (LTU)
Sung Hyang Kim (PRK)
Aktenge Keunimdzhaeva (UZB)
Sarah Hildebrandt AnalysisHildebrand may have the toughest road to the finals of any American, at least in the women's freestyle. If she wins and keeps her seed, she'll face Feng in the quarterfinals, Dolgolyav in the semifinals and, if she wins her first match, Susaki in the final.
Hildebrand lost to Mongolia's Dolgorzhavin at consecutive world championships, then bounced back to win the bronze medal, but beat her at the Imre Poljak and Varga Janos Memorial in 2023.
Feng won the bronze medal at the 2023 World Championships and beat Susaki 4-2 at the 2024 Asian Championships before losing 4-8 to the five-time World and Olympic champion.
Susaki and Hildebrand have never played against each other before and would only meet in the final if their seeds hold up. From a U.S. perspective, this is the most anticipated matchup of the Olympics.
53 kilograms
Top 8 seeds
No.1 Lucia Epes Guzman (ECU)
2nd Place: Emma Malmgren (Sweden)
No. 3 Akari Fujinami (JPN)
4. Antim (India)
5. Maria Prevolaraki (GRE)
No.6 Christina Ogunsanya (NGR)
No. 7 Pan Qianyu (China)
No. 8 Andrea Anna (ROU)
No seed
Annika Wendl (Germany)
Mia Aquino (GUM)
Mariana Dragutan (MDA)
Clan Batkuyag (MGL)
Choi Hyo Kyung (PRK)
Zeynep Yegil (Türkiye)
Dominic Parrish (USA)
Bezabeth Arguello Villegas (VEN)
Dom Parrish Analysis: Parish is not seeded, so we don't know who he'll face in the first round. An ideal opening match would be against fifth-seeded Prevalarchi, but there's only a one in eight chance of that happening.
Parish showed technical skill in giving top seed Guzman a tough time at the 2022 World Championships, but the Ecuadorian star has improved a lot over the past two years. If Parish beats Guzman in the first round, he will be seeded No. 1, with two-time world champion Fujinami lining up in the opposite bracket.
Fujinami is the favorite to win, but the rest of the bracket is a close call. Parish lost 3-2 to Antim in his first match of the 2023 World Championships, but this is a winnable match and a good draw.
57 kilograms
Top 8 seeds
No. 1 Tsugumi Sakurai (JPN)
2nd Place: Anastasia Nichita (MDA)
No.3 Odunayo Adekuoroye (NGR)
4th Place: Anhelyna Lisak (Poland)
5. Helen Maroulis (USA)
6th place: Hong Kexin (China)
No. 7 Julia Penalver (Brazil)
No. 8 Luisa Valverde (ECU)
No seed
Chaimah Auisi (ALG)
Hannah Taylor (CAN)
Sandra Parsheski (Germany)
Lucaela Aquino (GUM)
Anshu (India)
Aurora Russo (Italy)
Kongorzul Boldsaikhan (MGL)
Alina Friusina Akobia (UKR)
Helen Maroulis' AnalysisMaroulis is playing in his third Olympics as the fifth seed and will face Sakurai in the semifinals if they both win their first two matches. The three-time world champion from Japan has defeated the American star 3-0 and 6-0 at the past two world championships. Besides Sakurai, Maroulis has had the most success in recent Olympics.
Maroulis will face Lissak in the quarterfinals, who she beat in the quarterfinals of the 2022 world championships and for the bronze medal in 2023.
Adekulloye, who coached Maurouris at the Polish Open before the 2020 Olympics, is on the other side of the bracket.
62 kilograms
Top 8 seeds
No.1 Aisle Tynybekova (KGZ)
No. 2 Sakuramotogi (JPN)
3. Grace Bullen (NOR)
4th place: Irina Koliadenko (UKR)
5. Bilyana Dudova (Bulgaria)
No. 6 Luisa Niemesch (Germany)
No. 7 Ana Godinez (CAN)
8. Kayla Miracle (USA)
No seed
Ameline Douard (France)
Orkhon Purevdorj (MGL)
Esther Kolawole (NGR)
Hyun Kyung-Moon (PRK)
Christa Inche (ROU)
Johanna Lindborg (Sweden)
Siwal Buceta (TUN)
Nesrin Bas (Türkiye)
Kayla Miracle BreakdownMirak is as good as anyone, and that will be shown in her quarterfinal match against Tynybekova. Tynybekova won the 2019, 2021 and 2023 World Championships and won the silver medal at the 2020 Olympics. She beat Mirak 7-0 in the 2021 World Championship final, but Mirak won 9-3 in the 2022 World Cup.
If Miracle beats Tynybekova, she will face either Koreadenki or Dudova in the semifinals. Japan's Motoki and Norway's Bren are on the other side of the bracket. Bren and Miracle were teammates for one year at Campbellsville, where Kayla's father, Lee, was the head coach.
68 kilograms
Top 8 seeds
No. 1 Bus Cavusoglu Tosun (TUR)
2nd place: Delgermar Enkhsaikhan (MGL)
No. 3 Koumba Larroque (France)
4th Place: Irina Lingach (MDA)
No.5 Tetiana Sova-Lyshko (UKR)
No.6 Blessing Oborududu (NGR)
No.7 Souleymi Caraballo Hernandez (VEN)
No. 8 Feng Zhou (China)
No seed
Linda Morais (Canada)
Nisha (India)
Nonoka Ozaki (JPN)
Meerim Joumanazlorza (KGZ)
Tayla Ford (New Zealand)
Wiktoria Czory (Poland)
Sorghum Pack (PRK)
Amit Ehrle (USA)
Amit Erol's Analysis: Errol is unseeded but is the best wrestler in the field. She was a two-time world champion at 72kg before dropping down to 68kg. She will face one of the top eight seeds, which is the worst matchup for any wrestler in the field.
Japan's Ozaki is the second-best wrestler in the field and is unseeded, which adds an element of intrigue as he and Errol could meet in the quarterfinals, semifinals or finals depending on the draw.
At this weight class, unseeded athletes have received more accolades than seeded athletes.
76 kilograms
Top 8 seeds
1st Place: Aipeli Meto Pheasant (KGZ)
No. 2 Yuka Kagami (JPN)
3. Tatiana Renteria (Colombia)
No. 4 Catalina Axente (ROU)
No. 5 Miraimis Marin (CUB)
No. 6 Hannah Reuben (NGR)
No. 7 Justina Di Stasio (CAN)
8. Bernadette Nagy (Hungary)
No seed
Yuliana Yaneva (Bulgaria)
Huang Wang (CHN)
Genesis Reasco Valdez (ECU)
Reetika (India)
Davaanathan Enkh Amar (MGL)
Zaineb Sghaiyya (TUN)
Yasemin Adal Yigit (Türkiye)
Kennedy Blaze (USA)
Kennedy Blaze AnalysisBlaydes is unseeded, so whoever he faces will be a tough first match. He lost 13-4 to Cuba's Marin at the Spanish Grand Prix, so that could be a first-round match. Also, returning world champion Di Stasio is seeded seventh, so it could be an American-Canadian matchup.
This matchup will be particularly intriguing as the Blades have not faced many top international stars before.
