NFL free agency heats up the fantasy football offseason. This column is designed to be a one-stop shop for quick analysis of the most impactful player moves: trades and free agent signings.
ESPN fantasy writers Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Carabel, Liz Rosa, and Eric Moody provide insight into what each move means for a player's fantasy value in 2024.
quarterback
Gardner Minshew signs with Las Vegas Raiders
Fantasy influence: neutral to positive
Minshew, joining his fourth team in six years, signed a two-year contract with the Raiders reportedly worth $25 million ($15 million guaranteed). He filled in for Anthony Richardson last year and had 490 pass attempts for just over 3,300 yards and 15 TDs (plus three rushing scores). The veteran averaged 13.75 fantasy points per game (QB21) in 13 starts in 2023.
A great bridge for a team in the throes of a rebuild, Minshew looks (at this point) in line to compete with (and likely beat) Aidan O'Connell for the season opener in Las Vegas. Although his talent isn't necessarily elite, Minshew's experience and acumen will enliven the fantasy floor for both Davante Adams and Jacobi Meyers. Minshew is unlikely to crack the top 25 fantasy producers at this position, but he could still have value as a backup in super-flex leagues. –– Rosa
Kirk Cousins signs with Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy influence: positive
The Falcons' offense has gotten even better this offseason after coach Raheem Morris took over, as they signed Cousins, a very good, albeit unglamorous, quarterback who was a huge upgrade over Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder/Taylor. It keeps getting interesting. Heinicke's rotation the team had in the 2022-23 season.
Cousins is coming back from a torn Achilles tendon and is at some risk of injury to start the season, but he averaged 18.7 fantasy points in the eight games before his injury, making him one of the best quarterbacks to start at least as many. It was the best. He's a borderline QB1, probably best ranked at 12th or 13th for his position, but his addition bodes well for the futures of running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts. — Cockcroft
Russell Wilson signs with Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy impact: Wilson neutral to positive, Pickett negative
The move creates a serious QB between Wilson, who ranks 18th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per start (16.1 starts (minimum 10 starts) in two seasons in Denver, and Kenny Pickett, who ranks 41st with 10.3 points per start). A fight begins. Wilson probably won't pick a team that doesn't want him to start, so unless he has a terrible preseason, he'll probably be playing under center in Week 1. He has a decent lineup of receivers in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, and could benefit from Arthur Smith's run-oriented offense, which should rely on play-action more often. Despite Wilson's outstanding performance in the preseason that earned him a starting spot, he still seems most likely to be the matchup quarterback. — Cockcroft
run back
Austin Ekeler signs with Washington Commanders
Fantasy influence: negative
We have another running back reunion! Austin Ekeler has signed a two-year contract with the Commanders. Anthony Lynn, who will become Washington's running back coach in 2024, was the Chargers' head coach when Ekeler joined the league in 2017. Lin, himself a former running back, helped Austin rise from UDFA to superstardom.
Ekeler won't carry the burden alone in Washington, but will likely instead serve as a complement to Brian Robinson Jr., who should continue to develop with his early down and short-yardage abilities. Considering the Commanders' offense is still in its infancy, Ekeler's rushing ability isn't likely to recover any time soon. However, his pass-catching ability should be maximized as he will emerge as a safety valve for the rookie QB the team drafts in April. With Washington likely playing in reverse, Austin should provide low-end RB2/high-end RB3 numbers in a PPR-friendly format. — Rosa
Gus Edwards signs with Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
Gus Bass is heading west to reunite with former OC Greg Roman in Southern California. Edwards broke all the rules regarding TD regression and totaled 13 points (RB4) in 2023. He's a two-down grinder with an unerring nose for the end zone and has the numbers to serve as a short-yardage option for the Chargers. His efficiency will likely take a hit if Lamar Jackson doesn't captivate defenses, but the complexion of the Chargers' retooled offense should allow Edwards to maintain flex fantasy value. — Rosa
Devin Singletary signs with New York Giants
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
After leaving Buffalo for Houston, Singletary will now return to the Northeast on a three-year deal with the New York Giants. Saquon Barkley's departure created a huge hole in the team's running back room, and Singletary alone can't fill that hole. The Giants are expected to take a committee approach in the backfield, with Singletary flashing back late in the 2023 season, averaging over 14 fantasy points per game from Weeks 10 to 18. But that's unlikely with the Giants. The team's offense lacks momentum and leadership (especially when compared to the Texans offense). Consider Singletary his reliable but middling RB3 for fantasy purposes heading into 2024. — rosa
Antonio Gibson signs with New England Patriots
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
The emergence of Brian Robinson Jr. in Washington put to rest any notion that Gibson might finally reach his full potential. Although Gibson's carries have steadily declined over the past few seasons, his catch numbers have remained consistent, averaging nearly three receptions per game for three consecutive seasons. New England will likely be moving Ezekiel Elliott, and Gibson will join LaMondre Stephenson in the team's backfield. Gibson's pass-catching ability is expected to be utilized in a third-down or change-of-pace role, which could be beneficial for PPR enthusiasts looking for a valuable flex option late in the draft. — Rosa
Josh Jacobs signs with Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
The Packers have changed their backfield. Green Bay added Jacobs and, in a surprising move, released Aaron Jones, who had one year left on his contract. With AJ Dillon set to test free agency, Jacobs could (at least for now) continue in an all-down role with his new team. The former Raider, who has racked up 260 touches in five straight seasons of his career, has been a consistent fantasy producer since entering the league in 2019.
His best season of his career (averaging over 16 fantasy points per contest) came in 2022. Although Jacobs' numbers understandably declined last year (3.5 YPC), he still posted top-20 FF stats per game (13.8 fantasy points per game). Expect the same (or more) in 2024, assuming Green Bay drafts a rookie and hires Jacobs as a fill-in. — Rosa
Saquon Barkley signs with Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy influence: positive
Although injuries have been a problem for him throughout his six-year NFL career (he missed 25 games during that time), Barkley has proven to be one of the league's most versatile running backs on the field. The average score is 1/5. Highest position since entering the league: 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game. He gives the Eagles some much-needed rushing power and adds a dimension to the offense that was lacking at times in 2023, especially at the end of the year. Barkley's receiving numbers have dipped during his time in New York due to repeated injuries to Daniel Jones, so he should work with Jalen Hurts to bounce back in Philadelphia. If he plays a similar number of games, it is entirely possible for him to regain or improve his performance in 2022.
If you think of him as a player who carries 18 times a game, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Rashaad Penny are just change-of-pace backs. — Cockcroft
Tony Pollard signs with Tennessee Titans
Fantasy influence: neutral
His first season as a full-time starter in 2023 was one of his most disappointing. Pollard had 59 more carries and 75 more touches, but his total yards decreased by 62. That he did it behind one of the better offensive lines in the game is especially disturbing on a team with the league's best passing offense. Pollard should have a chance to get a similar workload, but with a suboptimal environment with a poor offensive line and inconsistent passing game, Tyjay Spears could be the best choice if he continues to struggle in 2023. They are lurking around trying to steal something. Fantasy managers, including this columnist, would have preferred Spears to be given a chance instead, but this could quickly turn into a timeshare. — Cockcroft
D'Andre Swift signs with Chicago Bears
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
Considering that the team has been in a slump until 2023, this amount of reinforcement is unusual. In the second half of the season, he averaged 9.9 PPR fantasy points and totaled 66 yards in the Wild Card loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Also on the roster are Roshon Johnson and Khalil Herbert, who will likely be in three-down roles with Swift's deal. This is a downgrade offensively, with the Bears likely drafting Caleb Williams as a quarterback, and Swift becoming a fantasy low-to-midrange RB2 (Mike Clay is the most likely player in his total yardage). (projected to be 1,054 yards, 209 yards fewer than last season). Johnson initially looked like he would be a decent buy candidate heading into 2024, but he has now become more of an afterthought. — Cockcroft
wide receiver
Gabe Davis signs with Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy influence: neutral to positive
Davis, considered a big-play receiver to replace Calvin Ridley, was second in the league in average target depth of 14.6 yards, and 27% of his receptions went for 20 yards last season. Part of the need for Davis' success is due to Josh Allen, and his new quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, ranks 49 (11th) and 10 (8) in that category. Davis' fantasy value, as a matchup-oriented WR4/5, may ultimately remain the same in Jacksonville, but teeth It was a path to earning him a bigger role than the situational deep threat he's been in Buffalo the past two years. Now there are even more upside hints. — Cockcroft
Jerry Jeudy traded to Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Impact: Neutral on Judy, positive on Marvin Mims Jr.
The important point here has nothing to do with Jeudy. That said, his departure from Denver paves the way for fantasy darling Mims to see a huge spike in targets and tune in for a future breakthrough. Depending on Mims' quarterback personality, he could be a plus at WR3. Jeudy, on the other hand, should be entrenched as the Browns' No. 2 receiver, but that role will likely provide him with similar depth and a fantasy-appealing matchup rather than giving him a path to a true breakout. Bad news for Elijah Moore, who has 77 PPR fantasy points in his final nine games of 2023, but will likely struggle to produce consistent goals going forward. — Cockcroft
