2024 NFL Free Agency: Fantasy Football Winners and Losers

winner

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

From an age and workload standpoint, there's a lot of negative history to draw from for running backs who have reached this point in Derrick Henry's career. But the phrase “built something different” literally applies to Henry. Basically, there hasn't been a running back quite like the giant in NFL history, so it wouldn't be a shock if this outlier remains an outlier.

Henry could add some flair to a run game that was already a top-three unit last season. Henry ranked fifth in contact yards per rush (3.06) among Bucs with 200 carries last season, but had the eighth-highest stuff rate (48.6%, per Fantasy Points data). ). He doesn't seem to have missed a beat yet, and will now be joining a much better ecosystem. He could have avoided it if he had gone somewhere else. I think he's a draft target in Baltimore.

Also, do you like this sport even if you don't like watching Henry and Lamar Jackson team up in this Ravens run game? I vote no, but you don't.

Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons suffered from poor play from their quarterback last season. Desmond Ridder ranked 15th in pass completion percentage and had some consistency down-to-down, but was 25th in EPA per dropback. Sacks, turnovers, and woeful inaccuracy were debilitating problems for the Falcons' passing game. It wasn't a stable environment to get development from wide receiver or tight end.

Kirk Cousins ​​appears.

It's not a risk-free option at this stage of his career after coming back from an Achilles injury, but he could very well move up the ranks. Cousins ​​has played in this offensive system before and can throw well down the middle of the field. This should overlap where strong digging and cross-route runners Drake London and Kyle Pitts will draw most of their targets.

At some point this summer, we'll need to discuss how high is too high in the draft rankings for these two young star prospects. Today is not that day. To date, few pass catchers have experienced such a dramatic quarterback upgrade in free agency. London and Pitts are the clear winners.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

The 2023 season has already gone very well for Kyren Williams, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that next year could be even better.

According to fantasy point data, Williams had the lowest stuff rate (37.7%) and highest man/gap run success rate among backs with 200 or more carries. The Rams have found an identity that contrasts with most teams from the Sean McVay era, and they solidified it even further this offseason.

Re-signing right guard Kevin Dotson and adding left guard Jonah Jackson for a combined $99 million clearly shows they are prioritizing the run game. Jackson's deal also allows Steve Avila, who weighs over 330 pounds, to move to center field. Now, the personnel movers lining this line from left to right guard are over 1,000 pounds of him.

Williams stands alone on that depth chart as the main runner in a man/gap system that just acquired reinforcements.

Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Houston Texans

There seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the fantasy community about where the Texans' wide receivers stand. Frankly, that's unfair and, in my opinion, still based on how people perceived these players prior to the 2023 season and CJ Stroud's breakout. I think people don't understand how good Nico Collins is as a pure talent, and that lack of understanding is influencing opinions. They won't even be able to find an X receiver that can come close to his level.

The Texans are in trade talks for Keenan Allen and need more depth at this position. Adding beyond Collins and Dell to that room makes sense. So far, they haven't acquired a player to dig into that duo's target total.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Jacobs is a quality back who thrived in gap and zone concepts during a great 2022 season. It's easy to see why the Packers' coaching staff coveted him because he loves building his packages around play action and his RPOs around a variety of concepts.

I hope to find a way to invest in the Packers offense this season. Because it's clear that this unit is on a roll. screaming upward trajectory. Still, the wide receiver room and tight end duo could be forced to be targeted as they have a lot of young talent. Jaden Reed and Dontaevion Wicks are my players, but there are other solid players around them, so things are muddy.

So Jacobs might be the clearest path to get involved in this rising offense, even if he ends up higher in the fantasy draft.

Joe Mixon, Houston Texans

I question the wisdom of trading Joe Mixon and the right not to compete with other teams in giving him a three-year, $27 million contract, but that's what happened.

Mixon finally landed the most desirable running back spot. Mixon ranked eighth in zone concept run success rate last season and is a perfect fit for Houston's system. Almost every running back tied to Stroud's offense should be firmly on our radar early in the round. Mixon's pedigree certainly makes him a strong option.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

It's certainly on my radar that the fantasy community could push George Pickens into the draft range a little too early based on what's happened in free agency over the past few weeks, but I don't see him being a big winner. No doubt. First of all, losing Diontae Johnson creates a huge hole at the other outside receiver position, and Pickens is the heavy favorite to fill that targeting void. That's true even if Pittsburgh drafts a wide receiver early.

Second, I definitely have concerns about Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback this season. Even if Justin Fields replaces him, he's not going to run a high-octane passing offense. But both players are clear upgrades over what Kenny Pickett offered last season. I can't begin to convey just how alarming Pickett's film was last season.

Pickens could be a classic recipient of a small amount of volatility with a very high target share who could be overdrafted in fantasy. But there's no question that his outlook is better now than it was a month ago.

loser

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

It was very likely that the Chargers would acquire Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, or both this offseason. But now that Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston have topped the depth chart, Justin Herbert is in a precarious position.

I think the fantasy community is destined to overestimate some of the run-heavy rhetoric coming from this new coaching staff. It's incumbent upon the Chargers to improve their run game, but Herbert can also be a very efficient passer in this style of offense. But with the current receiving room, that second half will be difficult. Even if they add a wide receiver high in the draft, which is by no means a lock, this would still be a pretty uninspiring room. It will no longer be possible for Herbert to be anywhere near where he wanted to be in fantasy drafts the past two seasons.

Jordan Addison and Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings

When you go from a proven starter like Kirk Cousins ​​to quarterback Sam Darnold, everyone on the offense is a loser.

There's only so much going down for a guy like Justin Jefferson right now. He's an elite player and he'll be productive, even if it's more of a struggle than before. But under the new quarterback play, it will be difficult to project secondary players.

Jordan Addison is a good player, but a true No. 2 receiver in my eyes. He took advantage of soft coverage and picked off big plays during a monster week. If Jefferson is healthy, these favorable coverage looks will still be available to him this season, but his new quarterback may not be able to finish the first read quickly enough. Even if this team drafts a rookie in a trade-up scenario, they can't realistically be in the top two picks, so that prospect might not be ready to roll from Week 1 . You could talk yourself into Jefferson a little later in the round at No. 1 in the draft, but I wouldn't think too deeply about this offense.

Ty Chandler is also a loser due to a potential decline in the offensive environment and the addition of Aaron Jones. Chandler flashed a bit to finish the season and received positive reviews from the coaching staff, but signing Jones changed any major plans the team may have had for him this year.

Tejay Spears, Tennessee Titans

With Derrick Henry moving on this season, Tejay Spears was the obvious choice to be everyone's favorite breakout candidate. Perhaps that will still be the case, but the signing of Tony Pollard clouds the picture.

Spears is an electric back who can contribute in the passing game. That's also similar to how you would describe Pollard's peak season games. This committee could be one of the toughest to break through because their skill sets overlap.The Titans' offense will need: many It would be better — certainly possible — if both fullbacks could start as fantasy options under coach Brian Callahan.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars' passing game last season was disappointing. Subbing Calvin Ridley for Gabe Davis in no way makes them better. In my opinion, Davis' skill set at the X receiver position will only add to the instability that plagued this unit last season.

Trevor Lawrence is a good young quarterback, but given the circumstances around him, we're asking him to be an elevator for key teammates. As of now, other rising young passers are in better situations and have shown enough of a peak to overtake Lawrence on draft boards this summer.

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commander

We can debate what Austin Ekeler left in his aquarium. If he stays healthy, I think he can still be a quality two-way NFL back and be an effective and dynamic piece of the committee. But there's no disputing that he's in position to take on the manager's passing down duties, and as a proven threat in the scoring area, he could inherit his job at the goal line.

If that happens, Brian Robinson, who I like a lot as a power runner, will be stuck in a scary role in his early 20s. These carries will make it harder for him to return solid fantasy production or hit his ceiling in weeks. I like how Robinson and Ekeler complement each other in a tandem backfield, and their roles seem very clear to me. Robinson is likely to lose out to the fake football moneymaker.