The NFL news cycle is in full swing with free agency and trade news coming fast and furious. What does it mean for fantasy football in 2024? Matt Harmon break down the key signings, deals and speculation by position to help you sort through it all.
You can also follow all of the latest developments with Yahoo Sports’ NFL free agency tracker.
Quarterbacks
Falcons go all in for Kirk Cousins
The Falcons did what they had to do to get this done. Atlanta was too good last year to land one of the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, and with the talent on the roster, that was likely to be the case next offseason, as well. Cousins was the only veteran on the market who has shown he can offer well above replacement-level quarterback play over multiple seasons.
Cousins wasn’t just the Falcons’ best hope at quarterback this season; he was their only hope.
Cousin’s isn’t without his warts — he’s deep into his thirties and is coming off an Achilles injury. Yet, if he’s healthy he’s the perfect quarterback for this offense. He has familiarity with Raheem Morris dating back to their days in Washington. There is plenty of schematic crossover with what Kevin O’Connell asked of Cousins in Minnesota and what former Rams passing game coordinator Zac Robinson will install with the Falcons. At the bare minimum, we’ll see a grownup NFL passing game in Atlanta.
Everyone on the Falcons roster is a huge winner. Drake London has the skills needed to be a prototypical No. 1 star-caliber X-receiver. After dealing with bottom-barrel quarterback play in his first two seasons, Cousins’ arrival puts London at the top of any wide receiver breakout list. Cousins’ willingness to target wideouts in tight coverage and work over the middle fit like a glove with London. Bijan Robinson was already destined to be a high fantasy draft pick but being paired with a quality quarterback only cements his positive outlook. You can even feel free to hold out hope for Kyle Pitts after several injury-marred seasons. The ecosystem trending up can be the rising tide that lifts all boats for the Falcons offense.
Again, there are some risks with Cousins at this stage of his career and there is a lot of new that needs to gel around the talented skill-position players. It might take some time for us to reach the tantalizing ceiling proposition this move now brings into view. However, the fact that that ceiling is even realistic is a welcome change of pace.
Steelers and Russell Wilson a fit, but far from a guarantee
The offset language in Wilson’s contract allowed him to agree to an ultra-cheap deal as a free agent and still recoup the balance of the $39 million Denver owes him this season. That made him the perfect addition to any team that needed a legitimate option to compete with, and more than likely ultimately replace a young incumbent underperformer. The Steelers fit the bill to a tee. Considering what they’re paying him, this is a harmless move by Pittsburgh, even if you’d ideally want them to shoot for a higher ceiling at quarterback.
Some of Wilson’s 2023 raw stats look solid, but they don’t pass the test when you open the hood and observe the overly simplistic nature of his assignment. Joe Dolan makes a great comparison to some of the notes parroted about Carson Wentz following his one-year Colts tenure.
I know Russell Wilson was “better” in 2023 than 2022, but the eye test told me something was missing… his “bounceback” from disaster seemed to be like Carson Wentz’s 2021 in Indy after his Philly implosion.
Stats were objectively solid, play wasn’t good enough.
And welp… pic.twitter.com/0p6WvCb7OP
— Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) March 4, 2024
That said, I think Wilson can give you acceptable starting-level quarterback play. That is an uninspiring ceiling but more than you could say about what the Steelers have received from Kenny Pickett the last two seasons. New Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will have to adjust his offense a bit because Wilson has never operated well throwing over the middle of the field. But the under-center, deep play action drop concepts are the guardrails that Wilson needs at this stage of his career.
Overall, I expect the Steelers to be a run-heavy offense with Wilson under center that attempts to win on the margins. So, not much different than what they’ve wanted to be the last few years but at least they’ll actually have a grownup NFL scheme in place with Smith replacing Matt Canada’s high school offense. Plenty of rushing volume will come the way of both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, with the latter especially standing to benefit from Wilson’s quick trigger for the check-down pass the last two seasons (league-high 18.6% of his throws in 2023). In the receiver room, George Pickens fits the profile of the ball-winning straight-line X-receiver that Wilson has preferred in the latter chapter of his career. Pickens would be in a position to dominate Wilson’s targets if the Diontae Johnson trade rumors come to fruition.
Of course, this all assumes that Wilson is the Week 1 starter, never-mind the starter for all 17 games for Pittsburgh this season. Based on the film he’s put out the last two seasons, don’t believe for a second that either is a guarantee.
Running Backs
Eagles, Saquon Barkley pairing full of fantasy upside
A few moves have helped shift and challenge the way I view running backs amid countless hours of discourse over how the position is valued the last few years. The 49ers trading for Christian McCaffrey and the Lions drafting Jahmyr Gibbs were two situations where a team had tangible evidence that their ecosystem was good enough to drop in any replacement-level back and get quality production. And yet, both teams led by sharp brain trusts elected not just to elevate average talent at running back but actually spend real resources to acquire difference-making talent to weaponize the ecosystem.
My guess is that the Eagles have seen what has worked for those NFC rivals and identified Saquon Barkley as their means of copying.
Barkley isn’t quite at McCaffrey’s level as a player and isn’t as fresh or explosive as Gibbs. However, he can be Howie Roseman’s discount version of those moves. The Eagles have every reason to believe that behind a quality offensive line, even without Jason Kelce, and the matchups Jalen Hurts provides as a rusher, they have an ecosystem worth maximizing.
Dropping Barkely into this offense makes for a tantalizing fantasy proposition. Any gifted back tethered to a good offense is appealing, especially one who could trend run-heavy under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Barkley should end up being a nice second-round selection this summer.
Packers’ build on momentum, replace Aaron Jones with Josh Jacobs
The 2023 season revealed that the Packers struck gold with their development plan for Jordan Love and they were suddenly deep at pass-catcher after a bevy of successful picks at wide receiver and tight end. It also revealed how much a successful run game moves the needle for this unit. This was a very different offense when Aaron Jones was on the field and leading an impactful ground game. The dropoff behind Jones was too much for the offense to bear.
Ultimately, it seems the Packers no longer had faith in Jones’ ability to be consistently available as the team plans to sign Jacobs and release Jones.
Jacobs is a proven high-end rusher who has been effective in both gap and zone runs when healthy for the Raiders. The Packers have the flexibility to throw out any run scheme they want with a back like Jacobs and can trust his contributions in the passing game. With so many young pass-catchers on rookie deals, they can afford to pay a running back to secure their backfield.
Tethered to a quality passing game and likely ticketed for workhorse-level touches, Jacobs will likely be one of my favorite running back targets in fantasy football. Few offenses have me more excited than the Green Bay Packers.
Titans surprise by landing Tony Pollard
Pollard joins a backfield with Tyjae Spears as the Titans look to replace franchise legend Derrick Henry. I’ll admit to being surprised by this one.
Spears was going to be atop the breakout list for fantasy football this coming season but Tennessee was likely planning to add some kind of supporting piece all along. At first blush, Pollard’s skill set strikes me as a little it more overlapping with rather than complementary to Spears. That will make this a tricky backfield split to parse out. I’d be suspicious of anyone who speaks with much conviction about how the results of this rotation here in March or really, at any point before training camp opens.
Pollard told me last month that he didn’t feel like his old self until around Week 11 of last season while working back from a 2022 playoff game injury. Spears was a fireball of electricity as a rookie. I can be sold that both are excellent and explosive options this season. The fact that they play together on an offense where we have preexisting questions makes me feel like we need to be ready for a possibly effective but mysterious committee.
Bears, in midst of offensive makeover, add D’Andre Swift
Swift would not have been my guess for the first running back off the board in this free agency market. The fact that the deal was reported as quickly as it was tells us this was a very specific and targeted move from Chicago’s front office. Swift’s deal is slightly better than the one Miles Sanders got from Carolina in free agency last year, both in terms of per-year salary and guarantees (reportedly $15.3 million).
Running back was a need for the Bears and Swift brings a dimension to their room they didn’t have previously. He’s an explosive runner with some excellent moments in the Eagles zone-heavy run scheme. There’s also some untapped passing game ability that Philadelphia, given their offensive structure, didn’t look to mine. Holdovers Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson are NFL-caliber role players but neither is a clear-cut starter. I’d expect them to mix in with Swift to some degree but for Swift to be the odds-on favorite to lead the team in touches. The name of the game is stacking talent on the roster around future No. 1 overall Caleb Williams. Swift is the first and not likely to be the last move in their effort to do just that.
Sanders’ 2023 story provides a cautionary tale, both against using contract terms as a huge point in favor of a running back in fantasy and the dangers in projecting former Eagles backs outside of that ecosystem. He’ll fall somewhere in the usually murky mid-round waters in fantasy drafts this season and is someone I don’t think I’ll have a strong stance on.
Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy gets a fresh start with Browns
I have been much lower than general consensus on Jeudy as a route runner and as an overall player for quite some time. However, I like this move for Cleveland, which justifiably believed it needed more wide receivers. The Browns have shown a genuine willingness to be creative to acquire talent at a premium position, mining distressed-asset wideouts in each of the last three offseasons. It’s not a perfect room but they’ve now amassed a trio of Jeudy, Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore for two fifth-round picks, a sixth-rounder and a move back from the second to third round. Considering what other teams pay for this position, that’s not bad.
Jeudy needed a change of scenery but do not listen to anyone who tells you his disappointing start to his career is purely the function of a dysfunctional Denver offense. He is not the consistent separator he was billed to be coming out of school and is extremely volatile as an individual player. Hopefully, he can build some new momentum rotating between the slot and flanker position with Moore in the Browns’ vertical play-action passing game.
As a rule, I don’t love to invest in offenses with major quarterback questions that also look like they could be in for a target squeeze. We could be heading there in Cleveland with Jeudy and Moore fighting for looks behind Cooper and David Njoku. The fact that I still have major questions about Jeudy’s ability to play to his talent consistently just gives more credence to the fade.
I haven’t been willing to take the plunge on Jeudy in fantasy football the previous two seasons and I doubt that will change with his move to Cleveland.
Jaguars shouldn’t be done at WR after adding Gabe Davis
My evaluation of Davis as a player has never changed over his four-year career, even as the fantasy football industry has ridden a roller coaster of emotions for how they perceive him. Davis is not consistent enough as a separator to be a true No. 2 wide receiver to whom you give significant volume. However, he brings value as a downfield X-receiver who can uncover on scramble drills. As long as you have other viable high-volume players, Davis can fill a role in a passing game.
The Jaguars did need a vertical X-receiver, and at $13 million per year, Davis isn’t an offensive overpay in the current wide receiver market. He shouldn’t out-target superior players like Christian Kirk or Evan Engram. Frankly, his signing alone shouldn’t preclude the Jaguars from adding more wide-receiver help, especially since this move signals a Calvin Ridley departure.
Davis doesn’t look like someone who should be any kind of priority fantasy pick this summer. And from Jacksonville’s sense, the team continues to collect narrow application role players to fill out an overall average set of pass-catchers around Trevor Lawrence.
Tee Higgins requests a trade from the Bengals
A predictable move in the dance between a disgruntled franchise tag player and their team. Perhaps nothing comes of this request but Higgins quietly playing on the franchise tag — when he and his agent know with certainly that there are many other teams out there willing to pay him on a long-term extension — always felt wreaked of a pipe dream.
The way I’ve understood this situation is that the Bengals do not have any hopes of keeping Higgins long-term but specifically structured their salary plans to keep him with the tag in 2024. Higgins doesn’t have much leverage in the situation to alter those objectives unless he is willing to sit out a season, which I’ll believe when I see it. However, this is the mechanism in place for Higgins to put public pressure on the Bengals and send up the signal for other teams to get in a “too good to refuse” offer. I always assumed Cincinnati would be willing to listen to said proposals and move Higgins, even if in an ideal world they’d rather have him this year.
If I had to bet on it right now, I’d say it’s 70/30 that Higgins plays for the Bengals this season. Despite the siren song of a promotion to a true No. 1 wide receiver role elsewhere, Higgins’ best spot for pure production is probably in Cincinnati.
For starters, there aren’t many places for Higgins would be matched with a better quarterback than Joe Burrow. I doubt a trade for Higgins is in the plans for the Chiefs or Bills, not to mention the Bengals would hang up the phone on their top conference rivals in less than 15 seconds. I also think there should still be outstanding questions regarding whether Higgins can be a legitimate No. 1 wideout or if he’s topped out as an elite No. 2.
If I’m plotting some realistic landing spots, the Panthers and Titans would be near the top of my list. Then there are less likely but spots that can’t be ruled out like the Jaguars, Texans and Lions. All three of those landing spots would present their own set of pros and cons if we’re projecting out Higgins for 2024 alone.
This situation bears monitoring. My guess is we either get a trade resolution with haste in the next week or a frustrated Higgins will report sometime in training camp after losing a stare-down with a front office that’s been through these fights before.
