No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the playoffs; they are 0-156. Of 287 teams that were down 3-1, 13 (4.5%) have won the series, and of 350 teams that were down 3-2, 57 (16.3%) have won.
That's the kind of expansion opportunity the Boston Celtics are trying to avoid in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. A win on Monday night should quadruple the confidence the Dallas Mavericks have in their title hopes because they won't have to think of themselves as the only team trying to bounce back from a 3-0 deficit — they just need to become the team with 58 straight games to win an elimination game.
“They're a desperate team, and they're probably playing a little bit free,” said Al Horford, whose Celtics lost 3-0 in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals to force a Game 7. “We know what that mentality is.”
There teeth The freedom of knowing there is no room for mistakes, and the Mavericks have little choice but to give it their all on every possession, because one mistake could mean the end of all their championship hopes.
“I think it helped us that we were in the same situation last time,” Dallas coach Jason Kidd said, “so we try not to change or deviate from what we talked about in Game 4, which was take it possession by possession and try to win each quarter, hopefully. And that's what we ended up doing. What we're talking about today and tomorrow is just focusing on Game 5 and trying to find a way to win here.”
The Celtics just don't have the same mindset, no matter how hard they try.
“More than anything, I want to win tomorrow,” said Celtics star Jayson Tatum, who is shooting 36.5 percent from the field in the Finals. “But if we don't win, it's not the end of the world. We still have a chance. So we're just going to be prepared and not succumb to the idea that we have to win tomorrow. We definitely want to win, but Game 5 is the next game on the schedule, so it's the biggest game of the season.”
“It would be awesome if we could do that. It would be awesome,” Celtics reserve Sam Hauser added. “If we lose, it's not the end of the world. We're still up 3-2, but to do it at home would be pretty special.”
Home court advantage might be all the Celtics need. The Mavericks, minus Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, played horribly in the first three games of the series, but they came back to life in Game 4 at home, hitting 14 of 23 3-pointers. The result was a 122-84 victory over the Celtics.
Meanwhile, Boston's vaunted starting five made just 7 of 22 3-point attempts in a one-sided loss. That's a 21-point difference between the rest of the Mavericks and the Celtics' strength. It would be surprising to see that happen again in Boston. Kyrie Irving has also struggled to find his form in these Finals.
“We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow,” Irving said Sunday when asked how unsettling the atmosphere in Boston is as he returns to the city he once (reluctantly) called home. “Just make some changes. Just be prepared to be involved from now on. The most important thing is not to take this personally or share any energy with anybody other than my teammates. That's it.”
The Mavericks believe they figured something out in Game 4. They unleashed both their shooters and rim-runners, with Derek Lively II recording a double-double with five shots in 22 minutes. Boston's offensive quartet of Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White were models of efficiency, shooting 32.5% from the field and committing more turnovers (10) than assists (8).
Dallas will likely convince itself that the series is settling down and that the less experienced actors are figuring it out.
“I think that's true for sure,” Kidd said. “When you look at the analytics of our group, they're young and they're getting better as the series goes on. I hope that's true.” [on Monday] “When you play an opponent multiple times, you get used to their tendencies and start to exploit those tendencies defensively and offensively. Hopefully our group can see enough of Boston to understand what they do well and bring that home with them.” [on Monday] night.”
But what really solved the Mavericks was their effort.
“They played extremely hard and desperate,” Holiday said. “We have to do the same.”
Sometimes it really is that simple, especially when the Celtics have the more talent, as the first three games of this series have proven. All they need to do is match the Mavericks' spirit. If they keep doing that every night from now on, shooting variance alone should be enough to get Boston one win before Dallas makes history.
As Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said, it's “willpower, the mindset, the approach you bring to it.”
However, if Boston plays badly again, the Mavericks' confidence would soar. The Celtics would have to go back to Dallas and get another road win to avoid a Game 7. Blowing A 3-0 lead was starting to look real.
“I think we'll be ready for Game 5,” said Brown, whose worst game of the playoffs was Game 4. “I think that's the best answer I've got. I think we'll be ready. We're at home and we're looking forward to it.”
If they win, the Celtics are champions. If they lose, doubts can creep into their psyche. This team blew a 2-1 lead into the 2022 NBA Finals and lost to the underdog Miami Heat in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. It's a team that has had a tendency to squander big leads in recent seasons. The Celtics claim this year is different. If not, there's no need to worry. They'll win Game 5 at home, as oddsmakers predict. If they don't, the Dallas Mavericks have a chance.
