After 10 years of armchair scouting for Sactown Royalty and The Kings Herald, I no longer can watch the amount of tape needed for honest player profiles and to cover a full range of draft prospects. But I couldn’t just quit the NBA Draft completely, and have been watching and reading some scouting reports while checking out Brett Huff’s Consensus Big Board. While Monte McNair and the Sacramento Kings’ front office are likely talking with a dozen teams about trading the #13 pick, I’ve found a number of players I’d be excited to see them select. Here’s five of my favorite prospects in the Kings draft range.
DaRon Holmes II, Big, Dayton
DaRon Holmes just makes so much sense for the Kings. He’s been on the draft radar for three straight seasons, and put together an excellent junior year for Dayton while leading the team to the 2nd round of the Big Dance. Holmes averaged 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.1 blocks with a 62.7% true shooting percentage as the Flyers’ far and away number one option. He scored in both the paint and from distance, and operated a lot with the ball above the perimeter, where he showcased both his driving ability and emerging deep shot (he shot 38% from three on 86 attempts on the year). He looks to be a high-feel player who made big strides in his game every season.
On defense, Holmes has been a strong, determined rim protector, snagging 2.6 blocks per 40 minutes across his Dayton career. He’s disruptive in pick-and-roll coverage and had highlights guarding in space and against drivers. At 6’8.75 in shoes, he doesn’t have the ideal size for an NBA big, but he’s got a 7’0 wingspan and makes the most of it.
He’s a logical fit both playing alongside Domantas Sabonis and acting as a small-ball 5 in reserve, and offers upside both on and off the ball. He plays with both heat and physicality and did so as Dayton’s top dude for multiple seasons. I’m a big fan of both his proven production and upside on both ends of the court. He captains my vibes draft board this year, and I’m not sure why he’s not considered a lottery prospect.
Kal’el Ware from Indiana also makes a ton of sense from a similar talent and fit perspective, and he’d be an exciting upside swing. But I’d bet that Holmes’ success as the focal point of Dayton’s offense (not to mention his near doubling-up on Ware’s three point and free throw makes and attempts this season) would make him more likely a McNair target.
Ron Holland, Forward, GLeague Ignite
I cannot make myself believe that Holland will fall to #13. It does not make sense to me that NBA GMs would decide “this is not the best guy to bet on” 12 straight times. A 6’7 power wing with a 6’11 wingspan, Holland’s explosive athleticism, defensive motor and versatility, and production in the GLeague makes him the type of player that all NBA teams, the Sacramento Kings especially, should want to gamble on.
In 29 games with Ignite, Holland averaged 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals (and 3.2 turnovers) on 46% shooting. He was the team’s most productive player offensively and was a terror in the open court and in transition. While his handle and decision making are absolutely areas for improvement (he had more turnovers than assists), he has the offensive framework and drive to potentially be an aggressive on-ball creator. On defense, he matched up often at the point of attack against a range of GLeague opponents and showed great physicality and tenacity. His motor is off the charts – he dives for every loose ball and stays engaged on every play.
So why might he fall? His shooting ability is a major question mark (23.7% on 93), and there are reports that he wasn’t “particularly impressive” (per Sam Vecenie) at his draft pro day.
The Ignite team was also awful this season—so awful that the NBA shut the program down after this season—but I’d think that would make NBA teams wary of focusing on the Ignite’s results rather than on their player’s traits. It’s not Holland’s fault, or really the faults of fellow draftees/1st round locks Matas Buzelis or Tyler Smith, that the team had no spacing or playmaking around them. Holland is one of the youngest players in the draft, matched up every night with NBA hopefuls, and still produced 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.3 steals per game despite this poor team context. He shouldn’t have been asked to be the team’s primary creator, but I’m willing to bet on the tools he showcased will scale well to a lesser role on (hopefully) a smart team.
If Holland lasts to 13, he’s absolutely a player McNair should gamble on. I don’t care if he doesn’t fit the typical Monte-mold for draftees – even if he’s not as finished a product as the Kings’ previous 1st-round selections, he’s an ideal fit for the team positionally, athletically, and defensively. Have him work with assistant coach Luke Loucks on his deep shot while slowly scaling his offensive responsibilities early in his career – I bet he’ll still make an impact as a rookie even if it’s just as an energy player off the bench. In the long run, if his shot comes around to just league average, I bet he could be the steal of the draft. If you cannot take a homerun swing at pick #13 in this draft, when will you take that shot?
I’ll note that Tyler Smith, Holland’s Ignite teammate, makes sense as a surprise sleeper. At 6’11 with a 7’1 wingspan, Smith averaged 13.4 points and 5.1 rebounds in 22 minutes per game while shooting 47.4% from the field and 36% from three. Draft folks I trust have noted he was a capable, determined, and switchable defender. He’s probably the most project player on this list, which logically makes him an unlikely selection by McNair, but the long-term fit as a 6’11 forward who can shoot is promising.
Tristan da Silva, Forward, Colorado
Da Silva just makes too much sense as a Kings target. He’s 6’10 in shoes with a 6’10 wingspan, averaged 16 points, 5.1 boards, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals per game, and is a truly efficient offensive player. Mike Garcia (who produces fantastic, albeit Lakers-centric draft coverages) noted da Silva has shot above 60% at the rim, above 45% on all other 2-point shots, and above 39% from three in each of the past two seasons. He’s smart off the ball, and his ability to thrive as a catch-and-shoot threat and as a cutter was a big boon to Colorado’s hyper-efficent offense (7th of 362 D-1 teams in FG%). He also had a big jump in assist rate this season (13.4%) and could be another connective playmaker in a balanced offense. While da Silva doesn’t have the handling skill or self-creation film that the rest of the guys on this list have, his versatility on offense is undeniable, especially when teams won’t be able to ignore him for fear of his proven deep shot.
On defense, da Silva looks like a capable, high-effort defender, but will need to prove his on-ball range at the next level. While his size and length are ideal for a combo forward, he’s not without some toolset questions – he’s a smooth athlete, but he’s certainly not an explosive one, only weighed in at 216 lbs at the combine, and is already 23-years-old. My biggest concern is his rebounding – 6.0 per 40 minutes and a 9% rebounding rate is worrying for a dude at his size and projected NBA role. He needs to bulk up and get much more determined on the glass if he wants to be able to slide up to the 4 spot in the NBA.
I’ve seen many folks characterize da Silva as a safe or low-upside, high-floor type prospect, but the tape I’ve watched screams of a dude whose versatility is getting undersold. He’s wasn’t a proven on-ball creator at Colorado, but the rest of his game is so balanced and proven that any improvement in his handle and driving ability would make his value to an NBA team skyrocket (I call this the Mikal Bridges principle, since folks once told me Mikal was a low-ceiling player). Every team should want players with da Silva’s size, shooting ability, and offensive touch. Hat tip to our fearless leader Greg for pointing da Silva out to me months ago, he did a great job of identifying a true NBA player in his own backyard.
And speaking of players at Colorado, Cody Williams would also be a great upside swing for Sacramento. He’s a crafty, efficient scorer both on drives to the basket and from deep, and has great size and promising on-ball defense. His season-long stats (11.9 points and 3 rebounds on 55% shooting and 41.5% from three) may mislead his draft value, considering he suffered multiple fluke injuries (a fractured orbital bone, a wrist injury, and an ankle sprain) over the season. As Sam Vecenie noted, in the 14 games he played before the ankle sprain on March 14, Williams averaged 15.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists while shooting 60% percent from the field.
But I refuse to get overly excited about him potentially sliding, as Williams seems as unlikely as anyone on this list to fall to the Kings. This is especially true since Oklahoma City holds the 12th pick, just traded Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso (a fantastic trade, but one that may leave them looking for some more wing size off the bench), and they already have Cody’s brother, star Jalen Williams, on the roster.
Dalton Knecht, Wing, Tennessee
I rolled my eyes when I opened Knecht’s Tankathon profile for the first time, back when he was mocked to the Kings constantly—a 23-year-old who, after years of playing at a junior college and then at Northern Colorado University, led a power school to excellence with a brillant shooting stroke and a well-rounded offensive game? It seemed like projecting Knecht to be a King was making Monte McNair into a caricature. Then I watched some tape, and boy does Knecht look like the real deal.
Dalton led Tennessee to an SEC regular season title and an Elite Eight run in the NCAA Tournament while averaging 21.7 points and 4.9 rebounds on 45.8% from the field and 39.7 from three. At 6’7 in shoes and with a 6’9 wingspan, he’s a dangerous sharpshooter off the catch, off of movement, and off of screens. He doesn’t need much space to get his shot off, wasn’t bothered by defenses flying at him, and can get hot in a hurry. But he’s much more than just a off-the-catch shooter—he hit difficult buckets off the dribble, off cuts, and while attacking the basket. He moves well off the ball and can absolutely poster defenders if they aren’t ready for him. He’s strong, crafty, and plays with real physicality across the court.
Knecht will need to prove it on the defensive end. While he’s an excellent vertical athlete and played on one of the better defensive teams in the country, his tape shows he had trouble guarding speedy opponents at the point of attack. Hopefully with a lesser role and a defensive-minded coach, he can improve; the Kings last late-bloomer selection sure went from a questionable defender in space to a dynamic one. Knecht will also need to show that he can impact the game beyond scoring; 6.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per 40 minutes aren’t amazing for a player of his size and offensive usage, but Tennessee ended the season 20th in the country for assists and 43rd in rebounds, so it’s clear that playmaking and attacking the glass weren’t issues for the Volunteers.
Knecht may not give the Kings the size advantage they so desperately need, but he’s way too gifted and versatile an on- and off-ball scorer to ignore if he lasts until pick 13.
Jared McCain, Guard, Duke
Big caveat here – I had most of my notes written for McCain before Malik Monk agreed to stay a King and did Sacramento a huge favor by making his decision before the draft. Hopefully now we can put the idea of McNair using arguably his biggest offseason asset on another guard behind us.
I’m a fan of Jared McCain, and a month ago I’d have said he was worth taking a look at pick #13. He shot 41% from three on high volume, carried Duke in the second half off the season, rebounds at a great clip for his size, and is FROM Sacramento. I’m a sucker for basketball narratives, and that’s a hell of a potential storyline right there. He’s one of the best off-ball shooters in the draft class with a lightning quick release. He’s got plenty of highlights attacking the basket in the pick-and-roll and on closeouts. While he doesn’t have intimidating size or length, the draft folks I trust praised his off-ball defensive awareness and willingness.
But as time went on (and even when Monk remained un-signed), I realized that McCain makes as little sense for this roster as other guards in the Kings draft range. He didn’t showcase big-time on-ball creation or passing skills, and doesn’t have great size or NBA athleticism. Meanwhile, the other guards in this range—Providence’s Devin Carter (a defensive and athletic freak, albeit one whose single-season positive shooting sample reminds me of the last undersized guard the Kings drafted), USC’s Isaiah Collier (strong potential on-ball upside), or Baylor’s Ja’Kobe Walter (who has true wing size, to be fair)—are all talented, and certainly worth consideration in a vacuum. But even before Monk returned a King, and even while approaching this draft with a vibes-first approach, I ended up with one rule I want to scribble in permanent, purple marker on McNair’s favorite vest – “Don’t draft a guard.”
I’ve long been a proponent for the best player available (BPA) draft method, back when this team was always a year or two away from being a year or two away. But BPA is never as clear and obvious as fans and armchair scouts like to believe. A majority of draft experts and fans (myself very much included) thought Jaden Ivey was the BPA when the Kings selected Keegan Murray in 2022, and look how that turned out. But the bottom line is that if McNair is absolutely convinced that the best guard available when he’s drafting will be a significantly better NBA player than the best forward or big available, then he should take that guard—but then he better have a real plan in place to get that young guard a meaningful role.
Even if Monk hadn’t decided to re-sign, the Kings still have their biggest depth at the guard spots, and between De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Keon Ellis, Davion Mitchell, and Colby Jones, the playing time just doesn’t logically line up for Sacramento to add another guard prospect unless multiple moves are made. Over the past two years the Kings weren’t able to find the consistent roles for the bench guards they currently are developing until injuries forced their hands.
More importantly, the Kings have, across multiple front offices over the past decade and a half, never prioritized the forward positions enough, and their lack of size will continue to haunt them until they do. We watched Sacramento get backhanded 6 times this season by a New Orleans Pelicans team that HAS prioritized drafting and adding big wings and forwards. The Sacramento are a big boy organization now, and they need to bring in more big boys.
