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2024 fantasy football: Who could be a star in the final year of their contracts in the NFL this season?

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An old theory in fantasy football states that players perform better as they head into the final year of their contracts. Last offseason, the great Brandon Niles analyzed this phenomenon in detail to evaluate whether or not that's the case, which you can read here. Today, we'll add what we know about the 2023-24 season to that data to identify players who could be gems in the final year of their contracts for the upcoming fantasy football season.

Below is a summary of Brandon’s conclusions from looking at contract year data from 2015-2022.

  • QuarterbackYounger quarterbacks entering the final year of their contracts tend to see a jump in their production, while older quarterbacks entering the final year of their contracts don't see a jump in their production because they're usually journeymen or near the end of their careers.

  • running back: While some running backs have thrived in contract years, situation and volume tend to be much better indicators of success than contract status.

  • wide Receiving machine: Receivers experienced the largest productivity gains during their contract years. The most successful receivers during their contract years were in stable situations (safety depth chart position, continuity on offense, etc.).

  • tight endWhile the sample size for tight ends is smaller than other positions, the success of tight ends in the final year of their contracts will depend more on opportunity than anything else.

  • wholeHowever, contract length is not a standalone indicator of whether a player will perform well in fantasy, and is best used as a tiebreaker when deciding between two players to draft.

Now, let's take a look at how players in the final year of their contracts performed last year to get a clearer picture of whether there is a pay raise due to the final year of their contracts. Note that this does not include players who received extensions during the season or who were released during or after the season.

2023 has been a pretty successful year for quarterbacks in the final year of their contracts. Cousins, Mayfield and Minshew all exceeded expectations last season and earned themselves multi-year deals. Mayfield and Minshew both fit the mold of inexperienced quarterbacks who needed to make big plays to prove they could be starters in the NFL. Cousins, on the other hand, is a bit of an anomaly. He ruptured his Achilles in the middle of a statistically great season, but still ended up earning a huge contract from the Falcons as the biggest fish in the small pond of quarterback free agency.

There were a lot of big-name running backs who were in the final year of their contracts in 2023, but several of them took pay cuts and moved teams this offseason. This makes sense, as the data shows that almost all running backs who were in the final year of their contracts last year saw their performance decline. Running backs are notorious for having short careers in the NFL, and this data further supports that idea. So you want to avoid drafting older running backs just because they're in the final year of their contracts.

D'Andre Swift and Devin Singletary were more consistent in 2022-2023, but it's hard to say that contracts were the reason for their performance. Swift and Singletary were both given larger roles in their respective offenses, so volume was likely a much more important factor in their success.

Of those, Evans and Pittman fit Brandon's rules very well: They were both clearly the best receivers on their teams and had pretty solid quarterback play (interestingly enough, the aforementioned Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew were there), Higgins battled injuries for most of the season, and Brown had to deal with an offense led by Clayton Tune and Joshua Dobbs for the better part of the year.

While we were able to expand our sample size of tight ends after last season, the results were less than encouraging. Hunter Henry and Dalton Schultz were the only two tight ends in the final year of their contracts to improve from the previous year. With regards to streaming tight ends in 2024, we will continue to prioritize opportunity and quality of offense over contract status.

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Here we take a look at some notable players currently due to enter a contract year in 2024 and explain whether they are worth considering as candidates for a contract year jump.

Prescott reminds me of Kirk Cousins' situation last year. He is in the final year of his contract and is set to become an unrestricted free agent if he doesn't reach an extension with the Cowboys. I think the contract situation is something to consider for Prescott this season. If he continues to put up big numbers, he could be able to earn himself a salary similar to what Cousins ​​made with the Falcons.

Love has yet to sign an extension, but the Packers expect one to happen in the coming weeks, and Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst himself has said he wants to get a deal done before the start of training camp, so unless things change dramatically by the end of the summer, I would avoid factoring Love's contract into your fantasy stats.

Tua's contract situation is interesting. Several of his draft classmates, including Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, recently signed huge contract extensions that made them some of the highest-paid players in the league. Tua will likely want a similar deal with the Dolphins as he enters his fifth year, but he's clearly a step behind the other three in terms of talent. If Tua and the Dolphins can't come to terms on a deal by the start of the season (which I think is very likely), I'd like to see Tua a bit more in fantasy. Tua could easily follow in the footsteps of Lamar Jackson, who played on his fifth-year option and earned himself a huge contract extension.

Jones and Conner are both older running backs with a similar profile to players like Henry and Ekeler last season. They look like classic dead-zone running backs, so you might want to avoid acquiring them based on their final-year contract status.

The Pittsburgh Steelers waived his fifth-year option on Harris, so he's set to become a free agent after this season. It's hard to gauge how Harris will be used in the Steelers' offense this season, as fellow running back Jalen Warren split time almost evenly with Harris last year. On paper, Harris' situation is similar to Josh Jacobs' a few years back. Jacobs led the league in rushing and was a first-team All-Pro after the Raiders waived his fifth-year option in 2022. But given what we know about Harris as a player, we won't overcomplicate his contract situation and will treat him as a lower-tier RB2.

Lamb and Aiyuk are in very similar situations. Both were first-round draft picks in 2020 and are waiting for extensions after their fifth-year options were exercised. Both Lamb and Aiyuk missed mandatory minicamp in early June, indicating they are holding out to get the extensions they want. To be honest, I think this is mostly offseason drama and both players will get paid before the season starts. Both Lamb and Aiyuk seem intent on holding out until their contracts are done, so I don't see a scenario where either of them is on their fifth-year options going into the season.

Higgins is in a slightly different position than Lamb and Aiyuk. He was selected in the second round instead of the first in the 2020 draft, so he doesn’t have a fifth-year option and will be playing on the franchise tag this season. I believe the stars are aligned for Higgins to explode in the final year of his contract. He fits the bill as the obvious second option in the Bengals offense to succeed as a receiver in the final year of his contract, and Burrow will be throwing the ball to him. The Bengals have the fourth-most targets available heading into this season after releasing Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon, so Higgins may receive a bigger piece of the target pie now that he’s fully healthy. Putting all this together, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Higgins has a monster season that earns him a huge payday next spring. I’m going to draft Higgins as much as I can in fantasy this year.

Allen and Diggs are in a similar situation to the veteran stars who were traded for young, exciting offenses this offseason. However, it is difficult to attribute their potential production to their contract situations. Allen and Diggs will join brand new offensive lines in Chicago and Houston, respectively, so the situation and volume around them will greatly affect their fantasy performance. This doesn't mean they won't be great in fantasy. I would just advise against using their final-year contract status as the primary reason to draft them.

Godwin's contract is void after this season and he will become a free agent if he does not sign a contract extension with the Buccaneers in the coming months. Having been a cornerstone of the team for the past five years, it would not be a surprise if Godwin agrees to a favorable extension before training camp begins. But even if he doesn't, he is a solid target in the final year of his contract. Like Higgins, he has all the makings of a productive wide receiver in the final year of his contract and proved he still has it when he recorded over 1,000 receiving yards last season. He is a strong WR3 candidate in the middle rounds.

Hopkins is in a similar situation to Godwin, coming off a 1,000-yard season in his first year with the Titans after signing a two-year deal last July. While Hopkins is not expected to get a contract extension before the season given his age (32), it's easy to see him having a spike year and proving he still has some reserves. He's also been a very solid WR3/FLEX option this season.

Cooper is in the final year of his five-year, $100 million contract that he signed with the Cowboys in 2020. He just finished a season with a career-high 1,250 yards receiving and didn't participate in mandatory minicamp. Cooper is already 30 years old, so he's unlikely to sign a multi-year extension, so I'm going with the one-year theory here. He's shown time and time again that he can produce no matter who throws the ball to him. I expect him to have another outstanding season as the Browns' clear No. 1 receiver and earn his final paycheck next year.

  • Players entering the final year of their contracts have seen mixed results in fantasy football, and generally speaking, contract years should be used as a tiebreaker when making a decision between two players, rather than the ultimate deciding factor.

  • Looking at the 2023 data, the ingredients for a successful season in the final year of a contract become clear.

  • This year, the Warriors have several stars who could be in the final year of their contracts, including Dak Prescott, Tee Higgins and Amari Cooper.

Further analysis from 4for4: Can the defense replicate its fantasy performance?

This article originally appeared on 4for4.com.



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