We've been shuffling up for a new fantasy football season and now we've got to a key position – running back – and if I could know the answer for one position before the season, this is the position I would request.
Unfortunately, there is no answer. It's the position most likely to be hit by injuries, and also the position most likely to have a serviceable player (and the occasional star) by pure chance. In the receivers section, I said the Puka Nacua story was highly unlikely to happen this year, but the Kyren Williams story could easily be repeated somewhere. The path for a running back to be a big name isn't all that complicated. If you can solve the volume, you're pretty much set.
Running back overview/strategy
Most of my roster building is going to be focused on one primary runner. You can call him the anchor RB or hero RB. I'm not hung up on labels. This player will likely be a 1st or 2nd round pick, but that's not an internal mandate. I'll be flexible on draft day and, if the right situation arises, I might end up selecting the anchor in the 3rd or 4th round.
After that, they'll gradually build depth, understanding that most NFL clubs now operate something like a backfield platoon and the pool of useful fantasy backs is deeper than it's ever been.
Tier 1: Big Ticket
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$45 Christian McCaffrey
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$40 Breece Hall
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$39 Bijan Robinson
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$38 Jonathan Taylor
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$35 Jameel Gibbs
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$33 Saquon Barkley
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$31 Derrick Henry
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$29 Travis Etienne
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$29 Kylen Williams
It's a good thing the Niners selected Trent Williams at left tackle because the rest of the offensive line is questionable going into training camp. McCaffrey won his first rushing title last year, but I think the team will go back to how he preferred to be used early in his career, which was to emphasize his receiving ability and get tackled by lighter defenders on the other side instead of thicker interior players. Still, with Kyle Shanahan's strategy, a team that is likely to win double-digit games, and a very high goal-line advantage, McCaffrey would be the automatic No. 1 pick.
Taylor is playing at an elite level late in 2023, and there's a good chance he'll outscore all running backs this fall. Shane Steichen was clearly the longshot for the Colts. Indianapolis was 10th in scoring (though that ranking outweighed other efficiency metrics) despite starting QB Anthony Richardson missing most of the season. Sure, some of the rushing benefits will go to Richardson and not Taylor, but Taylor is still old enough (he turned 25 in January) and the Colts have a top-10 offensive line that everyone will be watching. I'd approve of drafting Taylor in the first round, but if you can get him anywhere in the second round, he's a bargain worth checking out.
Hall was sixth in cumulative points (using a 0.5-point PPR system) and ninth in points per game last year. It's been an impressive return from a torn ACL. Now he joins an offense with a significantly improved quarterback and offensive line. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, Hall's receiving volume will likely decrease. However, the overall offensive momentum will increase as the Jets will be in the red zone more often with Rodgers playing. Hall was Yahoo's No. 2 back in the early drafts, and I think that was a given.
Henry won't be a big hit as a receiver, but don't forget that Gus Edwards scored 13 times for the Ravens last year, and Henry is a much stronger runner than Edwards. Despite Lamar Jackson's athleticism and rushing ability, the Ravens don't like to put him in goal-line rushes, likely to keep him healthy. I think Henry will lead the league in rushing touchdowns, but I wouldn't be surprised if he scores 16-20, which is a ridiculous number. Henry has scored in double figures for six straight seasons, and is now teaming up with the best offensive line of his career.
Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
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$26 Isaiah Pacheco
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$25 Ratchad White
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$25 Devon Achan
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$23 Josh Jacobs
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$22 James Cook
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$21 Joe Mixon
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$19 Kenneth Walker
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$18 Zamir White
Including the playoffs, Pacheco has scored eight touchdowns in his final eight games of 2023 and also recorded 31 receptions in that span. All of his per-opportunity metrics dropped in his second season, but just being under the wing of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes gives Pacheco a safe floor.
Acchane is a merchant of speed. He's often thought of as a long-distance scorer, but Miami has used him inside the 10-yard line more than I can remember. Eight of Acchane's 11 touchdowns have come in that area, including five from the 4-yard line. Miami's backfield is loaded with capable runners, but this team will likely continue to run at the goal line this year. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both 5'10″ tall, and there are no dynamic tight ends on the roster. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa has rushed for just 144 yards (and zero rushing touchdowns) over the past two years.
The Raiders pivoted to a run-and-defense model late in the season, and White was the driving force behind much of that success. He was first in rushing attempts during that period (tied with Najee Harris), third in rushing yards, and eighth in half-point PPR scoring. Alexander Mattison was added to the backfield, but he is clearly a backup and not a threat to the starting spot. White is not dynamic in the passing game, but he's not a non-factor. He had five catches in a December game against the Colts. He's one of my favorite bargain targets, and there's a good chance you can get him later in the draft than my rankings suggest.
Level 3: Praise, don't praise
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$17 Alvin Kamara
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$16 Aaron Jones
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$16 David Montgomery
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$15.00 Ramondre Stevenson
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$15 James Connor
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$13 Najee Harris
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$12 Raheem Mostert
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$12 D'Andre Swift
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$12 Zack Moss
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$11 Tony Pollard
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$11 Devin Singletary
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$10 Jalen Warren
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$10 Brian Robinson
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$10 Tyjay Spears
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$10 Austin Ekeler
Kamara's bottomless receptions have kept him valuable, but his efficiency metrics are trending in the wrong direction and he's having a worrying season at age 29. The Saints rarely rely on Kamara for short-yardage touchdowns, and I think Kendre Miller is ready to contribute this year after a mostly botched rookie year. You can't say no to talented players, but Kamara is unlikely to make my roster.
Singletary had a top-20 finish last year with a strong second half, and he could do it again with the Giants. Singletary and head coach Brian Daboll worked together in Buffalo, and the depth after Singletary is thin (Eric Gray was an underachieving rookie and rookie Tyrone Tracy was primarily a receiver in college). As long as Singletary holds the affordable RB30 tag with Yahoo, I'll be aggressive with him.
Harris won't be as exciting or explosive as Warren, but he could still be a starter and Buck would be used more frequently. Pittsburgh bolstered its offensive line with the draft and new OC Arthur Smith wants to put the ball on the ground. Even if Harris has a lame-duck season (his fifth-year option wasn't exercised), the Steelers will certainly give him playing time every week.
Tier 4: Some increase expected
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$9 Javonte Williams
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$9 Gus Edwards
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$9 Ezekiel Elliott
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$8 Jonathan Brooks
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$8 Nick Chubb
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$8 Jerome Ford
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$6 Zach Charbonnet
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$6 Chase Brown
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$5 Trey Benson
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$5 Blake Corum
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$4 Chuba Hubbard
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Antonio Gibson $4
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$4 Kendre Miller
Elliott's explosiveness has dropped off significantly, but he converts well when tasked with shorter-distance work. With the Cowboys relying on him to get close to the goal line, he could potentially be a RB2 contender even if he rushes for less than four yards per carry. Sometimes it's a matter of keeping up with the workload and not getting distracted by the talent level.
Sean McVay is known as a coach who frequently uses bell cow backs, but the best coaches also tend to use talent to drive their strategy, not the other way around. The Rams' aggressive pick on Blake Collum was probably a signal that they didn't want to put the same heavy workload on Kyren Williams as they did last year. Collum is thicker and a bit faster than Williams. If you're going to attack the Rams' backfield, you'd be better off picking Collum as a speculative pick, not a high-priced, high-expectation pick.
Tier 5: Bargain RB
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$3 Tyler Allgeier
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3 dollars Rico Dowdle
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$3 Ty Chandler
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$3 Jaleel McLaughlin
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$3 Khalil Herbert
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$3 Marshawn Lloyd
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$3 JK Dobbins
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$2 Roshon Johnson
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$2 Ray Davies
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Elijah Mitchell $2
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$2 Audric Estime
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2 Mile Sanders
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$2 Clyde Edwards Helea
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$2 Kimani Vidal
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$1 Damion Pierce
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$1 Alexander Mathison
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$1 Keaton Mitchell
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$1 Bucky Irving
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$1 Jalen Wright
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$1 AJ Dillon
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$1 Kenneth Gainwell
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$1 Donta Foreman
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1 dollar tank bigsby
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$1 Tyrone Tracy
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$1 Tray Sermon
