It's fair to say that while running backs had breakout successes last year, wide receivers did the opposite. Drake London repeated his rookie season FPPG, Sam Howell forgot about Jahan Dotson, and the other top prospects were low cost but actually flops. I'm looking for bouncebacks like London and Dotson. They're here again, along with other potential breakout wide receivers for the 2024 fantasy football season. I'll also include a “next five” of sorts, with receivers who need to work a little harder to break out. Just to be clear, rookies and previous top 20 FPPG receivers don't count toward my breakouts.
A newcomer and already a breakout star
- Marvin Harrison (ARI), Malik Neighbors (NYG), Brian Thomas (JAX)Harrison will be in the WR1 conversation right away, Neighbors could easily be a WR2, and Thomas could produce similarly to what Calvin Ridley did last year. I don't blame them too much if they consider themselves “breakout” rookies, but to me they're great players. debutnot a breakout.
- Tank Dell, HOU — Even before Stefon Diggs was added, it was hard to beat Dell's 14.2 FPPG (WR11) as a “breakout” margin. Diggs could lose out and Dell could get more for a full season, but even an impressive 15.0 FPPG (equivalent to a WR6) would be a bare minimum breakout.
- Mike Williams, NYJ; Michael Pittman, IND; Jayden Reed, GB; Marquise Brown, KC — They all finished in the top 25 or better, and aside from reaching WR1 status like Williams did in FPPG, a big season doesn't mean a breakout for all of these receivers.
Obvious name
Drake London, Atlanta — London scored more touchdowns in his final season at USC than he did in his first two years in the NFL (seven for six)… and in just eight games with the Trojans. London went 88-1084-7 in those eight games before the Falcons acquired him with the eighth pick in 2022. Unfortunately, London has struggled with below average quarterbacks in Atlanta, but the arrival of Kirk Cousins changed everything. Even while struggling, London produced 8.6 FPPG in each season, which is only 0.2 higher than Adam Thielen’s final year with the Vikings, when he started to decline and Justin Jefferson became a hungry-hungry hippo on Cousins’ targets. Not only does London being Cousins’ top target make him an easy breakout pick and guarantee him to surpass the 8.6 FPPG, but London is capable of getting into the WR1 tier where his ADP is already at.
Top 5 Breakout Wide Receivers
1. Jameson Williams, DET — Back to Williams in college. Before he tore his ACL, Williams was considered by many to be a better prospect than DeVonta Smith. Now, let's talk about Williams in the NFL. Last year, he was 42-24-354-2 on just nine targets and 241 routes as a rookie. It was certainly a season of few opportunities, but Williams dominated his Lions teammates with an AirYD/TGT of 15.8. — Josh Reynolds was second with 10.1 (Amon-Ra St. Brown was 7.8). Williams has recovered pretty well from his injury and is clearly the Lions' second-best wide receiver, with a quarterback who has outscored him 44-38-29 (passing yards-passing TDs) and 45-75-30 over the past two seasons. Oh, and the Lions only have three outdoor games this year… except two in Week 16 and Week 17 (CHI, SF).
Of course, Williams is at risk of finishing third in targets… at best. St. Brown had over 150, and Sam LaPorta had 120 as a rookie, and that's before you even factor in the backfield. Still, like Smith with the Eagles, Williams can get more done with his targets than most. If Williams fills the No. 2 role well and gets 110 targets, that would be a 70-per-1,000 success rate, and adding touchdowns would almost certainly put Williams in the top 25.
2. Khalil Shakir, BUF — Guess who led the Bills in EPA/TGT? I started this article with the players, so it makes sense I’m talking about Shaquill, who posted a 0.98. Gabe Davis was 0.25, and Stefon Diggs was 0.19. Of course, EPA is just one of many metrics. So let’s also add that Shaquill’s 1.84 YPRR was second only to Diggs’ 1.99, and he led the Bills in catch percentage with 86.7% and Dalton Kinkaid was second with 82.0%. Curtis Samuel reuniting with Joe Brady (who helped Samuel gain 1,051 total yards for the Panthers in 2020) is a concern, as is the Bills drafting Keion Coleman, but this isn’t a declaration of who is the definitive No. 1 pick.
Coleman has the profile to be a No. 1 option in the NFL, while Samuel is only a No. 3 option, despite his familiarity with Brady. Shaquill showed his stuff last season before going 20-219-2 on 22 targets in the final four games (two playoff games) against the Buccaneers and Jets (see his 81-yard touchdown). Shaquill is likely to be Josh Allen's top two option, and it's not impossible he could fill the role of Diggs, Allen's top target. There's no reason not to believe Shaquill will break out in 2024.
3. Jahan Dotson, WSH Like London, Dotson will also add Jayden Daniels to improve its quarterback lineup. Daniels completed 3,812-40 passes with just four interceptions and was 135-1134-10 on the ground in his final season at Louisiana State. The former is more important for Dotson, as the Commanders quarterback went 3,783-24 in 2022 and 4,174-24 last year. Daniels' Louisiana State teammates, Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas, both 2024 first-round draft picks, went 89-1569-14 and 68-1177-17, respectively. Terry McLaurin will certainly get an improvement from Daniels, but he won't be the only one. With Buffalo looking to fill the No. 3 spot with some unrivaled talent in Curtis Samuel, Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Synnott at the tight end position and rookie Luke McCaffrey at the receiver position, Dotson is the top candidate for the No. 2 Vols.
Additionally, Daniels and LSU enjoy utilizing their receivers in slot fades, and Dotson can and did move around more than McLaurin (39.4% slot vs. 13.2% McLaurin). Daniels has concerns in the short to mid-range areas, but Dotson's rookie season created excitement for Year 2 with 14.0 AirYD/TGT, 14.9 YD/REC, and 7 TDs. Even with mediocre reception rates, Dotson (and McLaurin, of course) could take a big leap with Daniels and go for 70-1000-7 to get into the top 24 and earn top breakout status. And the best part is, unlike last year's Top 36 WR talk, you don't even need a Top 55 WR pick.
4. Quentin Johnston, LAC — It's interesting to see concern emerge in the NFL about Johnston coming out of college. People want to end his career rather than understand that he was predictably immature (routes, contested catches, straight line). I love Ladd McConkey as much as anyone, but even if McConkey is #1, there's no guarantee Joshua Palmer can hold off Johnston at #2, even if Johnston shows improvement in year 2.
Johnston has enviable athleticism similar to DK Metcalf, and while there is a lot of talk about his drops, the awareness is magnified by the amount of attention (island games, big play opportunities, etc.). Palmer had a higher drop rate than Johnston (5.1% vs. 4.5%; even Keenan Allen had 4.1% last year). So Johnston needs to improve his handling, but he's not Treylon Burks (13.8% drop rate). And while Johnston has struggled, he leads the Chargers with 7 end zone targets and 12.9 air yards/touchdown. It's possible that Johnston won't make it in the NFL, but it's just as likely that the Chargers are more patient than fans and fantasy managers. Johnston's second year could provide value as a WR3/4 with touchdown potential… and cost less than a WR60+.
5. Marvin Mims, Denver — Like Johnston, Mims struggled as a rookie, but unlike Johnston, Mims doesn't carry the burden of being a big-time first-round draft pick. That's proving not to be the whole story, and the Broncos may not maximize Mims' potential, especially with the addition of Troy Franklin in this year's draft. But Mims has an opportunity coming. With Jerry Jeudy's departure to Cleveland, he's in prime position to start opposite Courtland Sutton. Josh Reynolds was added in free agency, but he's only a No. 3 pick and will likely drop to No. 4 once Franklin is ready to step up, possibly as a rookie.
The bigger issue is the quarterback situation, with Bo Nicks likely starting ahead of Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. Broncos fans and Mims had better pray that Nicks doesn't play better than those two. Mims can play any receiver position, but he lacks separation and evasion. For now, he's more of a chain mover or “just go deep” type of guy. Mims will peak as a top-3 “possession” type receiver, and there's a risk that Franklin will overtake him during his rookie season, which is why he's not ranked higher. That said, if Nicks starts well and Mims steps up as the No. 2, a No. 4 finish as a WR is entirely possible. That's a big jump for a “free” pick (outside of the top 75 WRs) who went 22-377-1 in his first year.
Breakout possible but need help
Jackson Smith-Njiba, SEA — The talent is undeniable, but can Smith-Njiba overtake Tyler Lockett, one of the most productive receivers from 2019-2022? Lockett seems to be on a downward trend after his worst statistical season since 2017, but he still got 122 targets in his rookie year, while JSN got 93. Furthermore, according to FantasyPoints.com, DK Metcalf led Geno Smith in first with 27.8% of his targets, Lockett was second with 24.2, and JSN was third with 19.3. Smith-Njiba has the talent to take the second position, but Lockett is not going to disappear completely. Even if you reverse the target shares of Lockett and JSN, Smith-Njiba's yardage will be in the 800-900 range due to Geno Smith's decline last year. Sure, there's room for more with Smith back in the mix, but unless Metcalf or Lockett are out for an extended period of time, JSN may have to wait until 2025 to crack the top 25.
Rashod Bateman, BAL — Even if you were the top wide receiver on the Ravens, you wouldn’t be more than a WR2/3 alongside a healthy Mark Andrews. In 2020, Marquise Brown had 100 targets, while Andrews had just 88 in 14 games. And aside from 2021, when Brown and Andrews had 153 and 146, respectively, no other second option had more than 75 targets in 2019-2023 when Lamar Jackson was the starter. And in 2021, when the Ravens threw 611 passes thanks to Tyler Huntley playing most of the season, Bateman was third with just 68 targets. The Ravens offense just doesn’t have room for a meaningful third option. Sure, the second option (Zay Flowers) could be in the top 25, but a second wide receiver/No. 3 target is not relevant for fantasy.
Michael Wilson, ARI — The draft pick of Marvin Harrison dampened Wilson’s excitement — as did Greg Dortch. Actually, like the Ravens, we’re spending way too much time on who the third option is… really fourth in Arizona if you factor in James Conner. The Cardinals’ pecking order will be Harrison, Trey McBride, maybe Conner third, and some combination of Wilson and Dortch. So even if either of those two are clearly the second wide receiver, it’s going to be hard to get them to 90+ targets. Sure, if either of them gets 90 targets, they’ll have a bit of a breakout, but it’s not going to be enough for WR3 value or a top 5 on this list.
Calvin Austin, PIT — There's been some OTA talk about Austin, but we're talking about a 5'9, 160-pound receiver who worked mostly in the 3-wide formation and in the slot. I think Roman Wilson will be the No. 2 receiver, since Mike Tomlin has touted him and forced him to play against Quinion Mitchell in Senior Bowl practice. Additionally, having Russell Wilson should improve the passing game, but Pat Friarmouth might be the answer at No. 2. option It doesn't matter if Wilson or Austin is the No. 2 wide receiver, Austin is only going to have a breakout year if Wilson struggles as a rookie and then something worse happens.
AT Perry, NO — You could argue that Rashid Shahid broke out last year, adding 41-231-3 to his rookie season, but we’re aiming higher and Shahid is a great third big-play option for any NFL team. I’m not going to argue that Perry is a better receiver than Shahid. In fact, his receiving style is more 2010s than 2020s, and in some ways more like Kenny Golladay. But that’s part of why Perry is here, because Shahid needs to stagnate or lose the No. 2 spot to Perry. And even if that happens, Perry will be a touchdown-fueled Sutton type.
(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
