Every NBA teams have weaknesses.
For those fortunate enough to reach the postseason, their matchups will do everything in their power to exploit those deficiencies.
So, like coaching staffs are surely doing already, we’re going weakness hunting with the starting lineup of all 16 projected playoff teams. And no, these aren’t necessarily the “worst” players in each first five, as they could be players with spotty playoff records, flaws that are hard to cover up on the big stage or imperfect fits with their fellow starters.
While the 16 postseason participants were subjectively selected, we did weigh to-date and recent performances, remaining schedules and, if applicable, the potential to perform in the pressure-packed play-in tournament.
It’s only fitting that the player spotlighted on the league’s best starting five wouldn’t be there for skill-related reasons.
The Celtics took on a not insignificant amount of risk when they added Porziņģis last offseason. When he plays, he’s a hugely helpful supplier of spacing, paint protection and support scoring, but with his injury history—which he’s adding to as we speak with a hamstring strain that’s cost him four consecutive contests—makes it impossible to assume he’ll be available when Boston needs him most.
The Shamrocks at least have the ultra-reliable Al Horford behind him, but moving Horford into the starting five might expose the unanswered questions about this team’s depth. Boston loses versatility at both ends when its center spot isn’t manned by one of Porziņģis or Horford.
Serious consideration was given to Evan Mobley here, as his spacing issues alongside Jarrett Allen and injury troubles are both significant concerns. If Mobley plays, though, the Cavs can count on him to be an active presence around the basket, and they can work around some of those spacing constraints by staggering their two bigs when possible.
There’s a little more volatility with Strus, who’s billed as a three-point specialist but is really more of a hustle-first role player with a streaky outside shot. He may have limitless range, but he doesn’t always know where his long-range looks will land. He has attempted double-digit threes in 14 games this season and shot 30 percent or worse from distance in half of them.
If he isn’t a knockdown shooter—and his 34.6 percent connection rate since the start of last season makes it pretty clear he’s not—then there isn’t a standout skill in his arsenal. He isn’t a lockdown defender, and there isn’t much off-the-dribble verve in his game. Opposing teams could pack the paint or hound Cleveland’s guards in an attempt to force Strus to beat them, and there is very little evidence he can consistently deliver.
Jones has serious hops, and he’s flashed a pretty solid understanding of how to maximize his athletic gifts on the defensive end. Still, there’s a reason he’s bounced around this league (five teams in eight seasons), and it’s no different from the reason he was available to Dallas for a minimum contract last summer.
His offensive game has never branched out much from his highlight hammers. His three-ball has perked up a bit with the Mavericks, as his 1.2 triples per outing and 35.6 percent splash rate are both personal-bests, but not in a way that worries opposing defenses. And since Dallas already doesn’t get shooting out of its center spot, things can pretty cramped if defenders feel free to sag off of one of its wings.
The Mavs demoted Jones for a stretch, but Josh Green didn’t do enough to keep a starting gig, so they’ve turned Jones’ direction again. It’s possible they could rethink that decision, though, or even try finding other alternatives, because Jones can be a decent off-the-bench energizer, but he’s over his skis as a member of the opening group.
Some teams have multiple candidates for this exercise; Denver isn’t one of them. The Nuggets’ starting five is fully loaded—not to mention fully intact from the franchise’s first ever NBA championship run last season.
Nitpicking is a must when probing for weak spots in the Nuggets’ starting lineup, which is how a player like Porter, a nightly 20-point threat and 48.5/39.9/81.7 shooter, winds up under the microscope. He is an effortless shooter, an ignitable scorer and an improved rebounder, but there are still a few warts in his game.
Even for a play-finisher, his lack of playmaking is pretty jarring (career 1.2 assists against 1.1 turnovers), and he’ll never be confused for a defensive stopper (players shoot 1.8 field-goal percentage points (and 5.2 three-point percentage points) higher against him than they do on average). If he isn’t shooting well, he probably isn’t helping, and while the Nuggets had to limit his minutes at times during last year’s playoffs, doing so now could be trickier without veteran players like Bruce Brown or Jeff Green on the second unit.
The Pacers have legitimate stars in Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, a tandem that would be a sneaky-strong sleeper pick if this league ever held an NBA Jam style two-on-two tournament. Myles Turner ranks among the more productive centers you’ll find, and it’s hard to overstate how helpful his blend of rim protection and floor spacing really is.
The choices, then, boil down to Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, and it’s tough to take the latter when he’s pairing versatile defense with shooting rates of 50.2 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from distance. So, Nembhard it is, due in large part to the fact he’s a backup lead guard instead being utilized as a starting off-guard.
His defense won him this role, and it is necessary to have some resistance on that end alongside Haliburton, but Nembhard’s long-range shooting isn’t where the Pacers need it. He fails to impress with quantity (0.8 makes per game) or quality (34.6 percent), and his mere floor presence has cost this club 6.7 points per 100 possessions on the offensive end.
Perhaps the best argument for the Clippers starting Mann is that he isn’t Russell Westbrook, who proved an awful fit for the first five once James Harden came to town. Mann plays the kind of low-maintenance, high-energy game that should be a great complement to L.A.’s stars, but his offensive weakness is a big one.
He can’t shoot. OK, that’s too harsh of an assessment for a career 37 percent three-point shooter, but he doesn’t shoot often—or, this season, accurately—enough for opposing defenses to care. The next time he totals more triples than games played in a season will be the first.
This season, his hit rate has plummeted to 32.9 percent, which feels impossibly low for a wing player who starts with a non-shooting center (Ivica Zubac). Mann can have his moments, but when he’s a non-factor on offense, he’s a hindrance on this team’s success. Case in point: L.A.’s other four starters all have positive net differentials of at least plus-4.0 points per 100 possessions while Mann’s is in the red at minus-4.2.
The last few months have been among the most productive of Russell’s career, and that’s still not enough to alleviate concerns that he won’t be nearly as useful come playoff time.
The problem is his scoring is sporadic, and nothing else in his skill set is special. Even amid this hot streak, he sandwiched a 44-point eruption between three games in which he managed just 29 points on 31 shots. If his shot goes cold, he doesn’t really have other ways to contribute.
The Lakers just saw this play out last postseason, when they had to yank him out of their starting lineup amid a frigid shooting slump. No one should be shocked if things played out in similar fashion again, as he’s just a 38.9/32.9/78.2 career shooter in 27 playoff games.
The Heat needed offense when they made a late January deal for Rozier, and roughly two months later, they still need offense. They were 20th in offensive rating when they made that trade, and they’ve since slid back to 22nd.
That’s not all on Rozier, of course, but the scoring jolt he was supposed to provide still hasn’t surfaced. In his first 18 games with Miami, he’s averaging just 14.8 points—he was at 23.2 before the trade—while shooting 41.6 percent overall and 29.1 percent from distance.
With Tyler Herro, the team’s second-leading scorer, still stuck on the sideline, the Heat can only hope Rozier snaps out of this. He is better than he’s shown, but he’s never been the most reliable scorer or shooter, so who knows? One that is clear, though, is his present form isn’t helping anything; his minus-13.9 net differential is easily the worst among Miami’s rotation regulars.
Middleton was a masterful shot-maker and late-game creator in Milwaukee’s run to the 2021 title, but it’s been nothing but injury issues and frustrations ever since. He missed 16 games of the following campaign and suited up just 33 times last season, while his current game count has been stuck at 43 since spraining his ankle in early February.
Not even the Bucks seem to know when they’ll be getting him back.
The Bucks need a healthy Middleton if they’re going to do anything remotely close to realizing their goals, and his many absences the past few seasons make it tricky to trust that he’ll be ready when needed. He has at least mostly resembled his old safe when he has played, which is important given the questions about Milwaukee’s wing depth behind him.
Anderson isn’t supposed to be in this spot, because he isn’t supposed to be in Minnesota’s opening lineup. When the Wolves are full-strength, the veteran swingman checks a lot of beneficial boxes as a complementary playmaker, versatile stopper and change-of-pace, small-ball big.
But Minnesota isn’t full-strength, and no one knows when that will change. Karl-Anthony Towns, a four-time All-Star, was recently forced under the knife by a meniscus tear that could keep him sidelined into the playoffs. Anderson has gotten the call to fill that spot, and the results haven’t been great.
The Wolves’ regular starting lineup—featuring Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert alongside Towns—has bulldozed opponents by 9.1 points per 100 possessions. But swap out Towns for Anderson, who doesn’t have the same scoring punch or nearly as much shooting range, and that lineup’s efficiency plummets to minus-7.8 points per 100 possessions.
Jonas Valančiūnas might be the selection here for some, as he’s neither the shooter nor the shot-blocker that New Orleans would really want next to Zion Williamson in the frontcourt. But Valančiūnas is good at what does (post scoring, rebounding), and the Pels are good about maximizing that when they can and changing things up when the matchup demands a different approach.
It’s different with McCollum, who needs to handle a heavier workload but isn’t always as impactful because of some skill overlap with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. All three count scoring as their top strength, and all three work best with the ball in their hands, meaning someone must take a step back for the others to shine.
McCollum becomes the de facto third option, so New Orleans can’t capitalize on all he has to offer. He can’t produce like he could in other spots, so the Pels don’t get the full advantage of his greatest attribute, but they are forced to stomach his glaring limitations on the defensive end (29th percentile in defensive estimated plus/minus).
This one is, admittedly, a bit of a bummer, as Randle has been scapegoated for his team’s struggles far more often than his numbers say he should. Then again, his playoff resume contributes plenty to that criticism.
Now, the sample size is tiny—which perhaps gives credence to the belief his numbers don’t always impact winning—but the statistics are abysmal: 17.1 points on 34.4/28.3/75.6 shooting with 3.7 assists against 3.9 turnovers in 15 career postseason contests.
The Knicks have at least given him more support than perhaps he’s ever had, so he might be able to better pick his spots and, hopefully, up his efficiency in the process. That said, there’s a very real chance he’ll be out of rhythm when the playoffs arrive, as a shoulder injury has sidelined him since late January, and he has yet to be cleared for full contact.
Giddey’s blend of size (6’8″, 210 lbs) and vision offers plenty of playmaking perks, but the Thunder could have serious questions about just how badly they need his ball-movement. Because once you move the conversation away from passing, his appeal torpedoes pretty quickly.
Despite being a double-digit scorer, defenses don’t have to worry about that part of his game. His 106 points per 100 shot attempts is an anemic 19th percentile mark. Opponents will leave him completely unattended away from the basket, forcing Oklahoma City to play four-on-five. He could get all the open shots he wanted, he just can’t convert them. He’s hit just 39.6 percent on all jumpers—inside and outside the arc.
Making matters worse, he’s also a negative presence on the defensive end. He doesn’t have the athleticism or the footwork to keep in front of speedy players, and bigger players can overpower him. Defensive estimated plus/minus slots him in the 37th percentile, and the eye test thinks that might be a pinch generous. No wonder he’s the only Oklahoma City starter with a negative net differential.
The Magic have tried out different combinations with their opening lineup, and Harris hasn’t been involved in all of them. He has, however, started each of the last nine games he’s played, so it feels safe including him in this exercise.
Orlando isn’t overloaded with talent, but this latest starting lineup—featuring Harris, Jalen Suggs, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr.—has so far been a steamroller. In 138 minutes together, this quintet has trampled teams by 15.6 points per 100 possessions, thanks in large part to the fact the pieces all fit the same puzzle.
That does make it difficult to find a weak spot, though, and Harris is more of a by-default choice than an obvious candidate. His defensive effort is tremendous, and his three-point shooting is badly needed. It’d just be helpful if he added anything else to the equation, because he’s more of a good shooter than a great one, so his offensive contributions are often muted.
Theoretically, this spot could go to one of Joel Embiid’s replacements, as Paul Reed and Mo Bamba both have challenges with consistency. In reality, though, this projection assumes Embiid returns in time to get this team into the postseason, because if the reigning MVP never makes it back from his meniscus surgery, the Sixers won’t make it out of the play-in tournament.
So, the microscope instead lands on Lowry, who was traded away by the Miami Heat and bought out by the Charlotte Hornets before finally latching on with his hometown team. The Sixers entrusted him with a starting spot shortly thereafter, and while the veteran checks some of the traditional boxes like organization and being the on-court extension of the coaching staff, his powered-down scoring punch could present big problems.
He is a clever distributor and willing (if not always able) defender, but that only goes so far to cover up the fact he’s never produced fewer points per 36 minutes (10.5). The Sixers, who’ve ranked 22nd in offensive efficiency since losing Embiid, aren’t so stacked with scorers that they can afford to have a lead guard who rarely even looks at the basket. Playoff defenses will force Lowry to be a scorer, and the 37-year-old may not have that in him any more.
When the Suns went third-star-searching last summer, few would have guessed this group would go after a scoring specialist who’s used to having the ball in his hands. So, when Phoenix brought in Beal to play alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, fans and analysts alike were immediately scratching their heads.
Beal can’t give this group what it needs most. He can, of course, provide ignitable scoring, off-the-dribble shot-making and secondary playmaking, but how big are any of those needs when Durant and Booker are healthy? The goal is clearly to bury opponents beneath a barrage of buckets, but the Suns were doing that before Beal even arrived. The offensive rating of this trio (123.8) isn’t much better than what Durant and Booker managed on their own last season (121.7), and the defense is considerably worse (115.0 defensive rating, up from 105.8).
Phoenix doesn’t always have a ton of shots available for Beal, meaning it isn’t always easy to gauge what he’ll contribute. At least the Suns know what to expect from Grayson Allen (elite shooting) and Jusuf Nurkić (close-range scoring and glass-cleaning). There isn’t the same certainty with Beal, especially when accounting for his many trips to the injury report, which have already cost him 29 contests.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass, Dunks & Threes and NBA.com and current through games played on Thursday.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
